Tour de France
Here you find predictions for every individual stage of the 2026 Tour de France. The predictions are made the evening before the race, generally between 20:00 and 21:00 (Amsterdam timezone). Win probabilities are derived from a combination of rider strength, route profile, and current form. That’s all very standard for this type of model but I added a few ingredients that should make the model a little different.
Since I take an interest in prediction, I also track the predictions from other forecasters, specifically Wielerorakel and the bookmaker Unibet. I track our performances in the scoreboard at the bottom of the page. The idea is that at the end of the Tour this tells us who did best!
During the Tour, I plan to write a few blogposts to explain the model a little more detailed. Stay tuned!
Stage 2 · Tarragona – Barcelona
Sunday 5 July 2026
Winner: Isaac del Toro
Win probabilities
| # | Rider | Win | Top 3 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tadej Pogacar | % | 64.3% | 98.3% |
| 2 | Paul Seixas | % | 50.2% | 94.3% |
| 3 | Jonas Vingegaard | % | 24.5% | 73.5% |
| 4 | Remco Evenepoel | % | 10.3% | 39.8% |
| 5 | Isaac del Toro | % | 9.6% | 38.9% |
| 6 | Mathieu van der Poel | % | 4.7% | 20.7% |
| 7 | Juan Ayuso Pesquera | % | 4.3% | 19.6% |
| 8 | Mattias Skjelmose Jensen | % | 3.2% | 15.1% |
| 9 | Mads Pedersen | % | 3.3% | 15.0% |
| 10 | Tobias Halland Johannessen | % | 2.6% | 12.3% |
| 11 | Matteo Jorgenson | % | 2.6% | 11.9% |
| 12 | Harold Tejada | % | 2.5% | 11.9% |
| 13 | Kevin Vauquelin | % | 2.7% | 12.0% |
| 14 | Thymen Arensman | % | 2.4% | 10.8% |
| 15 | Jordan Jegat | % | 2.4% | 11.1% |
| 16 | Richard Carapaz | % | 2.4% | 9.9% |
| 17 | Jai Hindley | % | 2.3% | 10.1% |
| 18 | Valentin Paret Peintre | % | 2.4% | 11.4% |
| 19 | Michael Storer | % | 2.4% | 10.9% |
| 20 | Jasper Philipsen | % | 1.9% | 8.2% |
| 21 | Tom Pidcock | % | 2.3% | 10.5% |
| 22 | Lenny Martinez | % | 1.8% | 8.9% |
| 23 | Yannis Voisard | % | 1.6% | 7.8% |
| 24 | Michael Matthews | % | 1.6% | 6.3% |
| 25 | Lennert van Eetvelt | % | 1.5% | 7.8% |
| 26 | Ben O Connor | % | 1.4% | 6.8% |
| 27 | Egan Bernal | % | 1.8% | 8.1% |
| 28 | Alex Aranburu | % | 1.8% | 8.7% |
| 29 | Dylan van Baarle | % | 1.5% | 5.5% |
| 30 | Guillaume Martin | % | 1.3% | 5.9% |
| 31 | Jonas Abrahamsen | % | 1.3% | 6.2% |
| 32 | Alex Baudin | % | 1.6% | 8.1% |
| 33 | Nelson Oliveira | % | 1.1% | 4.8% |
| 34 | Sergio Higuita | % | 1.4% | 6.3% |
| 35 | Filippo Ganna | % | 1.0% | 4.2% |
| 36 | Ilan van Wilder | % | 1.5% | 6.5% |
| 37 | Chris Harper | % | 1.4% | 6.5% |
| 38 | Pablo Castrillo Zapater | % | 1.2% | 5.5% |
| 39 | Mauro Schmid | % | 1.1% | 5.5% |
| 40 | Warren Barguil | % | 1.2% | 5.4% |
| 41 | Tiesj Benoot | % | 1.0% | 4.5% |
| 42 | Mathias Vacek | % | 0.8% | 3.2% |
| 43 | Ewen Costiou | % | 0.8% | 3.4% |
| 44 | Cian Uijtdebroeks | % | 1.3% | 6.7% |
| 45 | George Bennett | % | 1.2% | 5.4% |
| 46 | Sepp Kuss | % | 1.1% | 5.2% |
| 47 | Carlos Verona | % | 1.0% | 4.9% |
| 48 | Jasper Stuyven | % | 0.8% | 3.5% |
| 49 | Alex Kirsch | % | 1.0% | 5.2% |
| 50 | Alexandre Delettre | % | 1.0% | 4.5% |
| 51 | Arnaud de Lie | % | 1.0% | 4.3% |
| 52 | Sebastian Berwick | % | 1.1% | 5.4% |
| 53 | Abel Balderstone Roumens | % | 1.0% | 5.0% |
| 54 | Clement Braz Afonso | % | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| 55 | Soren Waerenskjold | % | 0.8% | 3.7% |
| 56 | Marco Frigo | % | 0.8% | 3.3% |
| 57 | Liam Slock | % | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| 58 | Derek Gee | % | 1.1% | 5.1% |
| 59 | Florian Lipowitz | % | 1.1% | 4.7% |
| 60 | Ben Healy | % | 1.1% | 5.1% |
| 61 | Per Strand Hagenes | % | 0.9% | 4.2% |
| 62 | Marc Hirschi | % | 0.8% | 4.3% |
| 63 | Damiano Caruso | % | 0.8% | 3.6% |
| 64 | Einer Rubio | % | 0.8% | 3.4% |
| 65 | Mike Teunissen | % | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| 66 | Davide Piganzoli | % | 1.0% | 4.3% |
| 67 | Anders Halland Johannessen | % | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| 68 | Brent van Moer | % | 1.0% | 3.9% |
| 69 | Antonio Tiberi | % | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 70 | Benjamin Thomas | % | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 71 | Alfred Wright | % | 0.5% | 2.5% |
| 72 | Romain Gregoire | % | 0.9% | 4.5% |
| 73 | Matej Mohoric | % | 0.8% | 3.8% |
| 74 | Jakub Otruba | % | 0.8% | 3.5% |
| 75 | Rick Pluimers | % | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| 76 | Luke Plapp | % | 0.7% | 3.4% |
| 77 | Clement Berthet | % | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 78 | Biniam Girmay | % | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| 79 | Vlad van Mechelen | % | 0.5% | 2.7% |
| 80 | Pavel Bittner | % | 0.5% | 2.0% |
| 81 | Lewis Askey | % | 0.8% | 4.0% |
| 82 | Julius van den Berg | % | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| 83 | Baptiste Veistroffer | % | 0.7% | 3.6% |
| 84 | Maxim van Gils | % | 0.7% | 3.6% |
| 85 | Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun | % | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| 86 | Felix Grossschartner | % | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| 87 | Adam Yates | % | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| 88 | Michael Valgren Andersen | % | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| 89 | Aurelien Paret Peintre | % | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| 90 | Alex Molenaar | % | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 91 | Jan Tratnik | % | 0.6% | 2.6% |
| 92 | Dorian Godon | % | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| 93 | Magnus Cort Nielsen | % | 0.6% | 2.5% |
| 94 | Stefano Oldani | % | 0.5% | 2.2% |
| 95 | Lars Craps | % | 0.5% | 2.0% |
| 96 | Joris Delbove | % | 0.6% | 1.9% |
| 97 | Nicolas Vinokurov | % | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 98 | Raul Garcia Pierna | % | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| 99 | Edward Planckaert | % | 0.5% | 2.8% |
| 100 | Matheo Vercher | % | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| 101 | Tim Wellens | % | 0.5% | 2.5% |
| 102 | Tim Marsman | % | 0.6% | 2.5% |
| 103 | Julian Alaphilippe | % | 0.3% | 2.2% |
| 104 | Javier Romo | % | 0.4% | 2.3% |
| 105 | Toms Skujins | % | 0.5% | 2.2% |
| 106 | Ion Izagirre | % | 0.4% | 1.9% |
| 107 | Tobias Foss | % | 0.5% | 1.8% |
| 108 | Felix Engelhardt | % | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| 109 | Nils Politt | % | 0.4% | 1.6% |
| 110 | Victor Campenaerts | % | 0.4% | 1.4% |
| 111 | Kelland Brien | % | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| 112 | Silvan Dillier | % | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| 113 | Matthew Riccitello | % | 0.5% | 2.7% |
| 114 | Georg Zimmermann | % | 0.4% | 1.9% |
| 115 | Jonas Rickaert | % | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| 116 | Hugo Page | % | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| 117 | Simone Velasco | % | 0.5% | 2.2% |
| 118 | Nicolas Breuillard | % | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| 119 | Frank van den Broek | % | 0.4% | 2.2% |
| 120 | Louis Vervaeke | % | 0.3% | 1.9% |
| 121 | Arvid de Kleijn | % | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 122 | Olav Kooij | % | 0.3% | 1.7% |
| 123 | Krists Neilands | % | 0.4% | 1.8% |
| 124 | Brandon Mcnulty | % | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| 125 | Davide Ballerini | % | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| 126 | Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez | % | 0.4% | 1.9% |
| 127 | Bruno Armirail | % | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| 128 | Jose Felix Parra | % | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| 129 | Huub Artz | % | 0.3% | 1.6% |
| 130 | Bert van Lerberghe | % | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| 131 | Nicolas Prodhomme | % | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| 132 | Nico Denz | % | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| 133 | Florian Vermeersch | % | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| 134 | Joel Nicolau | % | 0.2% | 1.6% |
| 135 | John Degenkolb | % | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| 136 | Piet Allegaert | % | 0.4% | 1.3% |
| 137 | Mathis le Berre | % | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| 138 | Emiel Verstrynge | % | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 139 | Luke Durbridge | % | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 140 | Tim Merlier | % | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| 141 | Daan Hoole | % | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| 142 | Anders Skaarseth | % | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 143 | Tim van Dijke | % | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| 144 | Robbe Dhondt | % | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 145 | Phil Bauhaus | % | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| 146 | Georg Steinhauser | % | 0.3% | 1.9% |
| 147 | Michal Kwiatkowski | % | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| 148 | Jenno Berckmoes | % | 0.3% | 1.7% |
| 149 | Torstein Traeen | % | 0.3% | 1.6% |
| 150 | Lorenzo Germani | % | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| 151 | Max Kanter | % | 0.2% | 1.4% |
| 152 | Niklas Markl | % | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| 153 | Damien Howson | % | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| 154 | Frits Biesterbos | % | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| 155 | Matis Louvel | % | 0.2% | 1.4% |
| 156 | Xandro Meurisse | % | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 157 | Quinten Hermans | % | 0.2% | 1.2% |
| 158 | Ramses Debruyne | % | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| 159 | Kasper Asgreen | % | 0.2% | 1.2% |
| 160 | Robert Stannard | % | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 161 | Aaron Gate | % | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 162 | Max Walker | % | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| 163 | Quinn Simmons | % | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 164 | Edoardo Affini | % | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 165 | Joshua Tarling | % | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 166 | Milan Fretin | % | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 167 | Jake Stewart | % | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 168 | Anthon Charmig | % | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 169 | Tom van Asbroeck | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 170 | Michel Hessmann | % | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| 171 | Sean Quinn | % | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 172 | Quentin Pacher | % | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 173 | Mattia Cattaneo | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 174 | Pascal Ackermann | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 175 | Matteo Trentin | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 176 | Cees Bol | % | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 177 | Marco Haller | % | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 178 | Thibault Guernalec | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 179 | Clement Russo | % | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 180 | Kamil Gradek | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 181 | Anthony Turgis | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 182 | Jenthe Biermans | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 183 | Fernando Gaviria | % | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 184 | Pascal Eenkhoorn | % | 0.1% | 0.3% |
Do you think a rider is injured or flying? Type your own win chance for any rider (it turns yellow) and the others rescale to keep the total at 100%, following the model’s distribution. Empty a yellow box to hand that rider back to the model. The “All to 0” button pins the whole field at 0%; then you can empty the boxes of just the riders you’re interested in (for example the break riders) and they share 100% in the model’s proportions. Top 3 and Top 10 stay as the model had them. Riders missing from this table were not yet in the model’s rider database at the start of the 2026 season.
Chance for the breakaway
Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.
Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel
| # | My model | Unibet (fair) | Wielerorakel |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tadej Pogacar 41.6% | Tadej Pogacar 41.0% | Tadej Pogacar 25.6% |
| 2 | Paul Seixas 27.6% | Mathieu van der Poel 12.3% | Jonas Vingegaard 19.6% |
| 3 | Jonas Vingegaard 9.0% | Remco Evenepoel 4.0% | Isaac del Toro 16.6% ✓ |
| 4 | Remco Evenepoel 2.9% | Isaac del Toro 4.0% ✓ | Remco Evenepoel 9.8% |
| 5 | Isaac del Toro 2.8% ✓ | Mathias Vacek 4.0% | Mattias Skjelmose 5.5% |
Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 148%; the extra 48% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.
Stage 3 · Granollers – Les Angles
Monday 6 July 2026
Win probabilities
| # | Rider | Win | Top 3 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonas Vingegaard | % | 98.3% | 100.0% |
| 2 | Tadej Pogacar | % | 98.4% | 100.0% |
| 3 | Isaac del Toro | % | 37.5% | 99.2% |
| 4 | Paul Seixas | % | 19.2% | 94.7% |
| 5 | Remco Evenepoel | % | 10.4% | 80.4% |
| 6 | Juan Ayuso Pesquera | % | 5.2% | 56.5% |
| 7 | Mattias Skjelmose Jensen | % | 1.6% | 24.9% |
| 8 | Jordan Jegat | % | 1.6% | 21.2% |
| 9 | Lenny Martinez | % | 1.5% | 22.0% |
| 10 | Egan Bernal | % | 1.1% | 15.9% |
| 11 | Valentin Paret Peintre | % | 0.8% | 11.9% |
| 12 | Cian Uijtdebroeks | % | 0.8% | 11.9% |
| 13 | Alex Baudin | % | 1.1% | 15.7% |
| 14 | Jai Hindley | % | 0.9% | 13.8% |
| 15 | Mathieu van der Poel | % | 0.8% | 12.3% |
| 16 | Kevin Vauquelin | % | 0.6% | 9.4% |
| 17 | Yannis Voisard | % | 0.8% | 10.0% |
| 18 | Lennert van Eetvelt | % | 0.6% | 8.5% |
| 19 | Tobias Halland Johannessen | % | 0.5% | 7.5% |
| 20 | Ilan van Wilder | % | 0.5% | 7.5% |
| 21 | Michael Storer | % | 0.7% | 7.5% |
| 22 | Tom Pidcock | % | 0.4% | 6.7% |
| 23 | Matteo Jorgenson | % | 0.4% | 6.5% |
| 24 | Richard Carapaz | % | 0.5% | 6.1% |
| 25 | Mauro Schmid | % | 0.4% | 5.2% |
| 26 | Romain Gregoire | % | 0.3% | 3.9% |
| 27 | Aurelien Paret Peintre | % | 0.3% | 3.4% |
| 28 | Harold Tejada | % | 0.4% | 8.4% |
| 29 | Ben O Connor | % | 0.6% | 7.8% |
| 30 | Thymen Arensman | % | 0.5% | 8.4% |
| 31 | Sergio Higuita | % | 0.4% | 6.4% |
| 32 | Alex Aranburu | % | 0.3% | 6.4% |
| 33 | Raul Garcia Pierna | % | 0.3% | 5.3% |
| 34 | Anders Halland Johannessen | % | 0.4% | 5.1% |
| 35 | Sebastian Berwick | % | 0.3% | 4.8% |
| 36 | Carlos Verona | % | 0.2% | 4.7% |
| 37 | Chris Harper | % | 0.3% | 4.6% |
| 38 | George Bennett | % | 0.3% | 4.6% |
| 39 | Clement Braz Afonso | % | 0.3% | 4.1% |
| 40 | Florian Lipowitz | % | 0.3% | 4.2% |
| 41 | Ben Healy | % | 0.2% | 3.7% |
| 42 | Marc Hirschi | % | 0.2% | 4.0% |
| 43 | Sepp Kuss | % | 0.3% | 3.9% |
| 44 | Guillaume Martin | % | 0.1% | 3.4% |
| 45 | Luke Plapp | % | 0.3% | 3.5% |
| 46 | Michael Matthews | % | 0.2% | 3.2% |
| 47 | Mathias Vacek | % | 0.2% | 3.5% |
| 48 | Davide Piganzoli | % | 0.1% | 3.3% |
| 49 | Warren Barguil | % | 0.2% | 3.1% |
| 50 | Javier Romo | % | 0.2% | 3.2% |
| 51 | Maxim van Gils | % | 0.2% | 2.8% |
| 52 | Tiesj Benoot | % | 0.2% | 2.8% |
| 53 | Ion Izagirre | % | 0.2% | 2.7% |
| 54 | Alexandre Delettre | % | 0.2% | 2.9% |
| 55 | Adam Yates | % | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| 56 | Abel Balderstone Roumens | % | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| 57 | Derek Gee | % | 0.3% | 2.9% |
| 58 | Dylan van Baarle | % | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| 59 | Damiano Caruso | % | 0.2% | 2.4% |
| 60 | Matthew Riccitello | % | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| 61 | Pablo Castrillo Zapater | % | 0.1% | 2.4% |
| 62 | Nelson Oliveira | % | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| 63 | Filippo Ganna | % | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| 64 | Marco Frigo | % | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| 65 | Quinten Hermans | % | 0.1% | 1.8% |
| 66 | Benjamin Thomas | % | 0.2% | 1.9% |
| 67 | Antonio Tiberi | % | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| 68 | Stefano Oldani | % | 0.2% | 1.9% |
| 69 | Jonas Abrahamsen | % | 0.2% | 2.0% |
| 70 | Tobias Foss | % | 0.1% | 1.8% |
| 71 | Lewis Askey | % | 0.2% | 1.7% |
| 72 | Rick Pluimers | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 73 | Georg Steinhauser | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 74 | Matej Mohoric | % | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| 75 | Nicolas Breuillard | % | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 76 | Tim Marsman | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 77 | Edward Planckaert | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 78 | Lars Craps | % | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| 79 | Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun | % | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 80 | Soren Waerenskjold | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 81 | Toms Skujins | % | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 82 | Louis Vervaeke | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 83 | Jakub Otruba | % | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| 84 | Julius van den Berg | % | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 85 | Michael Valgren Andersen | % | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 86 | Liam Slock | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 87 | Einer Rubio | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 88 | Nicolas Vinokurov | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 89 | Torstein Traeen | % | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 90 | Baptiste Veistroffer | % | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 91 | Julian Alaphilippe | % | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 92 | Alex Kirsch | % | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 93 | Brandon Mcnulty | % | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 94 | Ewen Costiou | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 95 | Alex Molenaar | % | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 96 | Mike Teunissen | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 97 | Tim Wellens | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 98 | Ramses Debruyne | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 99 | Felix Grossschartner | % | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 100 | Jan Tratnik | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 101 | Simone Velasco | % | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 102 | Joris Delbove | % | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 103 | Georg Zimmermann | % | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 104 | Matheo Vercher | % | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 105 | Alfred Wright | % | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 106 | Jasper Stuyven | % | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 107 | Robbe Dhondt | % | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 108 | Jose Felix Parra | % | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 109 | Vlad van Mechelen | % | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 110 | Michal Kwiatkowski | % | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 111 | Mads Pedersen | % | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 112 | Frank van den Broek | % | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 113 | Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 114 | Kasper Asgreen | % | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 115 | Felix Engelhardt | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 116 | Nicolas Prodhomme | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 117 | Sean Quinn | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 118 | Emiel Verstrynge | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 119 | Jenno Berckmoes | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 120 | Brent van Moer | % | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 121 | Krists Neilands | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 122 | Quentin Pacher | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 123 | Jonas Rickaert | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 124 | Per Strand Hagenes | % | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 125 | Joshua Tarling | % | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 126 | Bruno Armirail | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 127 | Frits Biesterbos | % | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 128 | Damien Howson | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 129 | Lorenzo Germani | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 130 | Magnus Cort Nielsen | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 131 | Aaron Gate | % | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 132 | Matis Louvel | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 133 | Joel Nicolau | % | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 134 | Hugo Page | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 135 | Mattia Cattaneo | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 136 | Arnaud de Lie | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 137 | Xandro Meurisse | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 138 | Anthon Charmig | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 139 | Silvan Dillier | % | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 140 | Robert Stannard | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 141 | Michel Hessmann | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 142 | Tom van Asbroeck | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 143 | Anders Skaarseth | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 144 | Huub Artz | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 145 | Arvid de Kleijn | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 146 | Luke Durbridge | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 147 | Piet Allegaert | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 148 | Pavel Bittner | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 149 | Daan Hoole | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 150 | Nils Politt | % | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 151 | Mathis le Berre | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 152 | John Degenkolb | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 153 | Davide Ballerini | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 154 | Max Kanter | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 155 | Jake Stewart | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 156 | Nico Denz | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 157 | Max Walker | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 158 | Bert van Lerberghe | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 159 | Niklas Markl | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 160 | Clement Russo | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 161 | Jenthe Biermans | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 162 | Dorian Godon | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 163 | Biniam Girmay | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 164 | Florian Vermeersch | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 165 | Kelland Brien | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 166 | Quinn Simmons | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 167 | Victor Campenaerts | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 168 | Kamil Gradek | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 169 | Milan Fretin | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 170 | Jasper Philipsen | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 171 | Anthony Turgis | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 172 | Thibault Guernalec | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 173 | Edoardo Affini | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 174 | Tim van Dijke | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 175 | Fernando Gaviria | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 176 | Pascal Ackermann | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 177 | Marco Haller | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 178 | Phil Bauhaus | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 179 | Cees Bol | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 180 | Tim Merlier | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 181 | Pascal Eenkhoorn | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 182 | Olav Kooij | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 183 | Matteo Trentin | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Do you think a rider is injured or flying? Type your own win chance for any rider (it turns yellow) and the others rescale to keep the total at 100%, following the model’s distribution. Empty a yellow box to hand that rider back to the model. The “All to 0” button pins the whole field at 0%; then you can empty the boxes of just the riders you’re interested in (for example the break riders) and they share 100% in the model’s proportions. Top 3 and Top 10 stay as the model had them. Riders missing from this table were not yet in the model’s rider database at the start of the 2026 season.
Chance for the breakaway
Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.
Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel
| # | My model | Unibet (fair) | Wielerorakel |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonas Vingegaard 48.9% | Tadej Pogacar 26.3% | Tadej Pogacar 23.7% |
| 2 | Tadej Pogacar 47.5% | Mathieu van der Poel 5.0% | Jonas Vingegaard 14.9% |
| 3 | Isaac del Toro 1.8% | Isaac del Toro 4.4% | Remco Evenepoel 9.1% |
| 4 | Paul Seixas 0.9% | Mathias Vacek 4.4% | Paul Seixas 8.7% |
| 5 | Remco Evenepoel 0.4% | Romain Gregoire 3.5% | Kévin Vauquelin 7.0% |
Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 152%; the extra 52% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.
Scoreboard
Stage winners predicted correctly
0
0
0
My modelUnibet (fair)Wielerorakel
Days with the sharpest prediction (lowest Brier)
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0
1
My modelUnibet (fair)Wielerorakel
Overall standing
| Predictor | Stages | Avg Brier ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| Wielerorakel | 1 | 0.8190 |
| Unibet (fair) | 1 | 1.1117 |
| My model | 1 | 1.2037 |
Scored on stages all three predicted, after the stage has been raced. Each predictor = its top-15 win probabilities as published; Unibet’s odds are first stripped of the bookmaker’s margin. Brier = squared error on the winner outcome; lower is better.
Last updated on: 2026-07-05 21:00.
Stage 1 is a team time trial, which an individual-rider model cannot score.