Tour de France

Here you find predictions for every individual stage of the 2026 Tour de France. The predictions are made the evening before the race, generally between 20:00 and 21:00 (Amsterdam timezone). Win probabilities are derived from a combination of rider strength, route profile, and current form. That’s all very standard for this type of model but I added a few ingredients that should make the model a little different.

Since I take an interest in prediction, I also track the predictions from other forecasters, specifically Wielerorakel and the bookmaker Unibet. I track our performances in the scoreboard at the bottom of the page. The idea is that at the end of the Tour this tells us who did best!

During the Tour, I plan to write a few blogposts to explain the model a little more detailed. Stay tuned!

Stage 2 · Tarragona – Barcelona

Sunday 5 July 2026

Note: this stage previously showed different values. Those were produced by a model with a technical fault and have since been corrected. The numbers below are the corrected predictions.

Winner: Isaac del Toro

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	19.3%	51.8%
2	Jasper Philipsen	%	8.4%	27.0%
3	Jonas Vingegaard	%	8.7%	27.7%
4	Isaac del Toro	%	8.1%	25.3%
5	Remco Evenepoel	%	6.1%	19.5%
6	Jai Hindley	%	5.3%	16.4%
7	Paul Seixas	%	5.3%	16.8%
8	Matteo Jorgenson	%	5.0%	16.3%
9	Olav Kooij	%	4.8%	16.2%
10	Richard Carapaz	%	4.6%	15.8%
11	Derek Gee	%	4.4%	14.3%
12	Michael Storer	%	4.4%	14.2%
13	Thymen Arensman	%	4.4%	15.4%
14	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	4.6%	15.4%
15	Harold Tejada	%	4.0%	13.3%
16	Ben O Connor	%	3.4%	11.5%
17	Mads Pedersen	%	3.9%	13.8%
18	Tom Pidcock	%	3.5%	11.2%
19	Mathieu van der Poel	%	3.1%	10.8%
20	Jordan Jegat	%	3.3%	10.7%
21	Kevin Vauquelin	%	2.9%	10.3%
22	Biniam Girmay	%	3.1%	10.3%
23	Sepp Kuss	%	3.1%	9.5%
24	Ben Healy	%	2.4%	8.1%
25	Florian Lipowitz	%	2.5%	8.5%
26	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	2.3%	7.5%
27	Brent van Moer	%	3.0%	10.6%
28	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	2.3%	8.2%
29	Tiesj Benoot	%	2.7%	8.7%
30	Dylan van Baarle	%	2.8%	9.3%
31	Guillaume Martin	%	2.7%	9.5%
32	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	2.3%	8.0%
33	Michael Matthews	%	2.4%	7.4%
34	Mathias Vacek	%	2.3%	6.9%
35	Per Strand Hagenes	%	2.3%	7.6%
36	Alex Baudin	%	2.1%	6.9%
37	Arvid de Kleijn	%	2.0%	7.0%
38	Felix Grossschartner	%	2.3%	8.0%
39	George Bennett	%	2.1%	7.0%
40	Romain Gregoire	%	2.1%	7.2%
41	Cian Uijtdebroeks	%	2.0%	7.3%
42	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	2.4%	8.1%
43	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	1.6%	5.0%
44	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	1.9%	6.3%
45	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	1.9%	6.6%
46	Alex Kirsch	%	1.9%	6.8%
47	Carlos Verona	%	1.9%	6.7%
48	Ewen Costiou	%	1.6%	6.0%
49	Liam Slock	%	1.6%	5.6%
50	Joel Nicolau	%	1.8%	5.8%
51	Sergio Higuita	%	1.7%	6.0%
52	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	1.9%	6.3%
53	Nelson Oliveira	%	1.7%	5.7%
54	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	1.6%	5.8%
55	Warren Barguil	%	1.7%	6.5%
56	Jasper Stuyven	%	1.8%	6.0%
57	Mauro Schmid	%	1.8%	5.7%
58	Matej Mohoric	%	1.5%	5.8%
59	Chris Harper	%	1.6%	5.0%
60	Benjamin Thomas	%	1.5%	5.1%
61	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	1.8%	6.2%
62	Tim Wellens	%	1.9%	6.3%
63	Soren Waerenskjold	%	1.5%	5.0%
64	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	1.3%	4.3%
65	Julius van den Berg	%	1.4%	5.5%
66	Davide Piganzoli	%	1.6%	5.6%
67	Mathis le Berre	%	1.3%	4.1%
68	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	1.4%	4.5%
69	Lewis Askey	%	1.2%	4.1%
70	Davide Ballerini	%	1.5%	5.0%
71	Lenny Martinez	%	1.4%	4.7%
72	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	1.5%	5.0%
73	Matheo Vercher	%	1.4%	4.8%
74	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	1.3%	4.5%
75	Ilan van Wilder	%	1.3%	4.0%
76	Filippo Ganna	%	1.3%	5.0%
77	Vlad van Mechelen	%	1.3%	4.4%
78	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	1.9%	6.1%
79	Sebastian Berwick	%	1.3%	4.8%
80	Bruno Armirail	%	1.4%	5.1%
81	Matthew Riccitello	%	1.2%	4.1%
82	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	1.2%	3.8%
83	Damiano Caruso	%	1.4%	5.0%
84	Yannis Voisard	%	1.3%	5.0%
85	Antonio Tiberi	%	1.2%	4.3%
86	Alex Aranburu	%	1.3%	4.6%
87	Jonas Rickaert	%	1.0%	3.7%
88	Pavel Bittner	%	1.0%	3.1%
89	Damien Howson	%	1.3%	4.9%
90	Jan Tratnik	%	1.1%	4.1%
91	Mike Teunissen	%	1.0%	3.6%
92	Brandon Mcnulty	%	1.0%	3.7%
93	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.9%	3.1%
94	Jakub Otruba	%	1.3%	4.5%
95	Louis Vervaeke	%	1.1%	3.8%
96	Piet Allegaert	%	0.9%	3.2%
97	Joshua Tarling	%	0.9%	2.9%
98	Lars Craps	%	1.1%	3.9%
99	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.9%	3.0%
100	Nicolas Breuillard	%	1.0%	3.6%
101	Clement Braz Afonso	%	1.0%	3.5%
102	Tim van Dijke	%	0.8%	2.8%
103	Marco Frigo	%	0.8%	3.2%
104	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.9%	3.2%
105	Daan Hoole	%	0.9%	2.5%
106	Rick Pluimers	%	1.3%	4.6%
107	Tim Marsman	%	1.0%	3.4%
108	Adam Yates	%	1.1%	3.8%
109	Dorian Godon	%	1.0%	3.7%
110	Frank van den Broek	%	0.9%	3.2%
111	Krists Neilands	%	1.2%	3.9%
112	Nils Politt	%	0.8%	3.1%
113	Huub Artz	%	0.9%	3.1%
114	Simone Velasco	%	0.9%	2.7%
115	Bert van Lerberghe	%	0.8%	2.8%
116	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.8%	2.9%
117	Marc Hirschi	%	0.9%	3.0%
118	Niklas Markl	%	0.8%	2.7%
119	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.8%	3.2%
120	Luke Plapp	%	0.8%	3.1%
121	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.7%	2.6%
122	John Degenkolb	%	0.7%	2.0%
123	Maxim van Gils	%	0.9%	2.9%
124	Max Kanter	%	0.8%	2.5%
125	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.7%	2.3%
126	Egan Bernal	%	1.0%	3.1%
127	Edward Planckaert	%	0.7%	2.6%
128	Toms Skujins	%	0.8%	2.5%
129	Alfred Wright	%	0.8%	2.8%
130	Torstein Traeen	%	0.7%	2.4%
131	Einer Rubio	%	1.0%	3.8%
132	Tim Merlier	%	0.7%	2.7%
133	Stefano Oldani	%	0.7%	2.1%
134	Jake Stewart	%	0.6%	2.3%
135	Joris Delbove	%	0.5%	2.1%
136	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.7%	2.2%
137	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.8%	2.6%
138	Nico Denz	%	0.7%	2.6%
139	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.6%	2.3%
140	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.5%	1.8%
141	Milan Fretin	%	0.8%	2.5%
142	Tobias Foss	%	0.5%	2.0%
143	Quinten Hermans	%	0.5%	1.8%
144	Michel Hessmann	%	0.5%	1.7%
145	Ion Izagirre	%	0.4%	1.4%
146	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.7%	2.2%
147	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.5%	2.0%
148	Anthon Charmig	%	0.6%	1.8%
149	Robert Stannard	%	0.4%	1.5%
150	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.4%	1.2%
151	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.5%	1.9%
152	Hugo Page	%	0.4%	1.7%
153	Quinn Simmons	%	0.5%	1.8%
154	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.5%	1.7%
155	Fernando Gaviria	%	0.5%	1.7%
156	Edoardo Affini	%	0.6%	2.1%
157	Javier Romo	%	0.5%	1.7%
158	Luke Durbridge	%	0.4%	1.5%
159	Kamil Gradek	%	0.4%	1.0%
160	Matis Louvel	%	0.4%	1.8%
161	Aaron Gate	%	0.4%	1.4%
162	Quentin Pacher	%	0.3%	1.0%
163	Max Walker	%	0.4%	1.4%
164	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.3%	1.1%
165	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.3%	0.8%
166	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.6%	1.7%
167	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.4%	1.5%
168	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.3%	1.1%
169	Sean Quinn	%	0.3%	0.9%
170	Silvan Dillier	%	0.2%	0.9%
171	Cees Bol	%	0.3%	1.4%
172	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.3%	1.1%
173	Anthony Turgis	%	0.3%	1.1%
174	Matteo Trentin	%	0.2%	0.8%
175	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.2%	1.1%
176	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.2%	0.8%
177	Marco Haller	%	0.2%	0.6%
178	Clement Russo	%	0.2%	1.0%
179	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.3%	1.1%
180	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.2%	0.9%

Show all 180 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Do you think a rider is injured or flying? Type your own win chance for any rider (it turns yellow) and the others rescale to keep the total at 100%, following the model’s distribution. Empty a yellow box to hand that rider back to the model. The “All to 0” button pins the whole field at 0%; then you can empty the boxes of just the riders you’re interested in (for example the break riders) and they share 100% in the model’s proportions. Top 3 and Top 10 stay as the model had them. Riders missing from this table were not yet in the model’s rider database at the start of the 2026 season.

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 12.7%	Tadej Pogacar 41.0%	Tadej Pogacar 25.6%
2	Jasper Philipsen 4.5%	Mathieu van der Poel 12.3%	Jonas Vingegaard 19.6%
3	Jonas Vingegaard 4.2%	Isaac del Toro 4.0% ✓	Isaac del Toro 16.6% ✓
4	Isaac del Toro 4.1% ✓	Remco Evenepoel 4.0%	Remco Evenepoel 9.8%
5	Remco Evenepoel 3.0%	Mathias Vacek 4.0%	Mattias Skjelmose 5.5%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 148%; the extra 48% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 3 · Granollers – Les Angles

Monday 6 July 2026

Note: this stage previously showed different values. Those were produced by a model with a technical fault and have since been corrected. The numbers below are the corrected predictions.

Winner: Tadej Pogacar

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	79.6%	99.6%
2	Jonas Vingegaard	%	17.6%	56.2%
3	Remco Evenepoel	%	12.9%	45.1%
4	Isaac del Toro	%	11.4%	42.9%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	10.4%	39.0%
6	Jai Hindley	%	6.5%	24.8%
7	Paul Seixas	%	5.2%	21.4%
8	Lenny Martinez	%	5.3%	20.6%
9	Matteo Jorgenson	%	4.4%	18.2%
10	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	4.1%	17.9%
11	Richard Carapaz	%	4.1%	17.6%
12	Ben O Connor	%	3.4%	14.4%
13	Kevin Vauquelin	%	3.3%	14.0%
14	Jordan Jegat	%	3.2%	13.0%
15	Thymen Arensman	%	3.4%	14.8%
16	Sepp Kuss	%	3.2%	13.2%
17	Michael Storer	%	2.9%	11.4%
18	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	3.1%	12.2%
19	Florian Lipowitz	%	3.5%	13.7%
20	Alex Baudin	%	3.0%	12.6%
21	Cian Uijtdebroeks	%	2.9%	12.3%
22	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	2.7%	11.6%
23	Harold Tejada	%	2.6%	11.2%
24	Sergio Higuita	%	2.6%	11.7%
25	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	2.1%	9.1%
26	Tiesj Benoot	%	2.3%	9.3%
27	Derek Gee	%	2.2%	9.1%
28	Ben Healy	%	2.1%	9.1%
29	Davide Piganzoli	%	2.0%	8.9%
30	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	2.0%	9.2%
31	Romain Gregoire	%	1.7%	8.1%
32	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	1.6%	6.7%
33	Tom Pidcock	%	2.1%	8.7%
34	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	1.8%	7.7%
35	Guillaume Martin	%	2.2%	8.8%
36	Egan Bernal	%	1.9%	8.5%
37	George Bennett	%	1.6%	7.3%
38	Ilan van Wilder	%	1.4%	5.6%
39	Marc Hirschi	%	1.4%	5.3%
40	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	1.7%	7.0%
41	Sebastian Berwick	%	1.7%	7.1%
42	Chris Harper	%	1.6%	6.2%
43	Dylan van Baarle	%	1.4%	6.0%
44	Adam Yates	%	1.5%	6.8%
45	Matthew Riccitello	%	1.2%	5.7%
46	Michael Matthews	%	1.5%	5.5%
47	Mauro Schmid	%	1.1%	4.8%
48	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	1.2%	4.8%
49	Mathias Vacek	%	1.3%	4.8%
50	Benjamin Thomas	%	1.1%	4.6%
51	Joel Nicolau	%	1.1%	4.4%
52	Brandon Mcnulty	%	0.8%	3.9%
53	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.8%	3.2%
54	Damien Howson	%	0.8%	4.1%
55	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.7%	3.0%
56	Tim Marsman	%	1.0%	4.0%
57	Marco Frigo	%	0.7%	3.5%
58	Warren Barguil	%	1.0%	4.8%
59	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.8%	4.0%
60	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.8%	3.4%
61	Yannis Voisard	%	1.0%	4.4%
62	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.9%	3.9%
63	Per Strand Hagenes	%	0.8%	3.6%
64	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.7%	2.7%
65	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.6%	2.5%
66	Lewis Askey	%	0.6%	2.0%
67	Matheo Vercher	%	0.8%	3.6%
68	Luke Plapp	%	0.8%	3.4%
69	Damiano Caruso	%	0.7%	3.3%
70	Bruno Armirail	%	0.7%	3.3%
71	Ewen Costiou	%	0.8%	3.3%
72	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.7%	3.4%
73	Tim Wellens	%	0.7%	3.3%
74	Javier Romo	%	0.6%	3.2%
75	Quinten Hermans	%	0.5%	2.2%
76	Mathis le Berre	%	0.6%	1.7%
77	Soren Waerenskjold	%	0.5%	1.7%
78	Maxim van Gils	%	0.8%	3.5%
79	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.8%	3.8%
80	Torstein Traeen	%	0.7%	3.3%
81	Clement Braz Afonso	%	0.7%	3.4%
82	Julius van den Berg	%	0.6%	2.8%
83	Lars Craps	%	0.7%	3.0%
84	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.7%	2.7%
85	Alex Aranburu	%	0.6%	2.7%
86	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.6%	2.5%
87	Liam Slock	%	0.6%	2.4%
88	Matej Mohoric	%	0.5%	2.1%
89	Joshua Tarling	%	0.6%	2.1%
90	Mike Teunissen	%	0.4%	1.6%
91	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.3%	1.2%
92	Alex Kirsch	%	0.6%	2.8%
93	Jasper Philipsen	%	0.8%	3.2%
94	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.6%	2.5%
95	Brent van Moer	%	0.6%	2.6%
96	Nelson Oliveira	%	0.5%	2.4%
97	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.5%	2.2%
98	Jakub Otruba	%	0.4%	2.4%
99	Ion Izagirre	%	0.6%	2.1%
100	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.5%	2.2%
101	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.4%	1.9%
102	Davide Ballerini	%	0.4%	1.8%
103	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.7%	3.6%
104	Rick Pluimers	%	0.6%	2.8%
105	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.7%	2.8%
106	Carlos Verona	%	0.7%	2.6%
107	Einer Rubio	%	0.4%	2.7%
108	Tobias Foss	%	0.4%	2.2%
109	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.4%	2.2%
110	Toms Skujins	%	0.5%	2.1%
111	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.4%	2.1%
112	Edward Planckaert	%	0.4%	1.8%
113	Joris Delbove	%	0.3%	1.8%
114	Stefano Oldani	%	0.4%	1.6%
115	Krists Neilands	%	0.5%	1.9%
116	Frank van den Broek	%	0.4%	1.7%
117	Jasper Stuyven	%	0.4%	1.8%
118	Filippo Ganna	%	0.3%	1.8%
119	Mathieu van der Poel	%	0.4%	1.4%
120	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.4%	1.3%
121	Olav Kooij	%	0.3%	1.3%
122	Biniam Girmay	%	0.3%	1.1%
123	Max Kanter	%	0.2%	1.1%
124	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.3%	1.0%
125	Jan Tratnik	%	0.4%	2.0%
126	Piet Allegaert	%	0.4%	1.6%
127	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.3%	1.6%
128	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.3%	1.5%
129	Niklas Markl	%	0.3%	1.4%
130	Simone Velasco	%	0.3%	1.6%
131	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.3%	1.2%
132	Huub Artz	%	0.3%	1.3%
133	Jake Stewart	%	0.2%	0.9%
134	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.3%	1.2%
135	Pavel Bittner	%	0.3%	1.3%
136	John Degenkolb	%	0.3%	1.0%
137	Daan Hoole	%	0.3%	1.1%
138	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.2%	0.9%
139	Robert Stannard	%	0.3%	1.1%
140	Quinn Simmons	%	0.2%	0.9%
141	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.3%	1.4%
142	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.2%	1.1%
143	Arvid de Kleijn	%	0.3%	1.2%
144	Dorian Godon	%	0.2%	1.1%
145	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.2%	1.1%
146	Nils Politt	%	0.3%	1.0%
147	Alfred Wright	%	0.3%	1.1%
148	Anthon Charmig	%	0.2%	1.0%
149	Sean Quinn	%	0.2%	0.8%
150	Nico Denz	%	0.2%	0.8%
151	Michel Hessmann	%	0.3%	0.9%
152	Luke Durbridge	%	0.2%	0.9%
153	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.1%	0.8%
154	Quentin Pacher	%	0.2%	0.8%
155	Hugo Page	%	0.2%	0.8%
156	Aaron Gate	%	0.1%	0.8%
157	Max Walker	%	0.1%	0.7%
158	Milan Fretin	%	0.1%	0.9%
159	Bert van Lerberghe	%	0.2%	0.7%
160	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.1%	0.6%
161	Kamil Gradek	%	0.1%	0.4%
162	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.1%	0.5%
163	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.1%	0.3%
164	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.2%	1.1%
165	Matis Louvel	%	0.2%	0.9%
166	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.2%	0.8%
167	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.1%	0.6%
168	Clement Russo	%	0.1%	0.6%
169	Mads Pedersen	%	0.1%	0.5%
170	Edoardo Affini	%	0.2%	0.8%
171	Tim Merlier	%	0.1%	0.6%
172	Silvan Dillier	%	0.1%	0.5%
173	Fernando Gaviria	%	0.1%	0.5%
174	Tim van Dijke	%	0.1%	0.5%
175	Cees Bol	%	0.1%	0.4%
176	Anthony Turgis	%	0.1%	0.5%
177	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.1%	0.4%
178	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.0%	0.4%
179	Matteo Trentin	%	0.1%	0.2%
180	Marco Haller	%	0.1%	0.2%

Show all 180 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 62.2% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 26.3% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 23.7% ✓
2	Jonas Vingegaard 5.3%	Mathieu van der Poel 5.1%	Jonas Vingegaard 14.9%
3	Remco Evenepoel 3.8%	Isaac del Toro 4.4%	Remco Evenepoel 9.1%
4	Isaac del Toro 3.3%	Mathias Vacek 4.4%	Paul Seixas 8.7%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera 2.6%	Romain Gregoire 3.5%	Kévin Vauquelin 7.0%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 152%; the extra 52% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 4 · Carcassonne – Foix

Tuesday 7 July 2026

Winner: Mads Pedersen

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	48.3%	90.2%
2	Remco Evenepoel	%	16.3%	48.6%
3	Mathieu van der Poel	%	9.4%	30.4%
4	Isaac del Toro	%	8.3%	27.6%
5	Mads Pedersen	%	6.2%	23.0%
6	Paul Seixas	%	5.3%	19.4%
7	Jasper Philipsen	%	4.4%	15.1%
8	Jonas Vingegaard	%	4.2%	15.1%
9	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	4.6%	15.7%
10	Harold Tejada	%	3.8%	13.4%
11	Mathias Vacek	%	4.7%	16.1%
12	Matteo Jorgenson	%	4.6%	16.1%
13	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	4.4%	16.7%
14	Tom Pidcock	%	3.9%	14.0%
15	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	3.4%	12.5%
16	Lenny Martinez	%	3.8%	13.2%
17	Michael Matthews	%	3.5%	12.3%
18	Cian Uijtdebroeks	%	3.2%	12.6%
19	Jai Hindley	%	2.6%	9.4%
20	Kevin Vauquelin	%	3.3%	11.6%
21	Mauro Schmid	%	2.9%	10.3%
22	Richard Carapaz	%	2.4%	9.2%
23	Michael Storer	%	2.9%	10.9%
24	Jasper Stuyven	%	2.5%	9.1%
25	Biniam Girmay	%	2.1%	8.5%
26	Romain Gregoire	%	2.2%	8.3%
27	Alex Baudin	%	2.4%	8.6%
28	Ben Healy	%	2.5%	8.8%
29	Tiesj Benoot	%	2.3%	8.4%
30	Olav Kooij	%	2.2%	8.3%
31	Felix Grossschartner	%	2.0%	6.7%
32	Soren Waerenskjold	%	1.7%	6.9%
33	Filippo Ganna	%	2.2%	7.8%
34	George Bennett	%	2.0%	7.3%
35	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	2.0%	7.1%
36	Alex Aranburu	%	1.7%	6.8%
37	Alexandre Delettre	%	1.8%	6.8%
38	Sebastian Berwick	%	1.8%	7.2%
39	Matheo Vercher	%	1.5%	6.4%
40	Per Strand Hagenes	%	1.9%	7.2%
41	Thymen Arensman	%	1.9%	7.8%
42	Brandon Mcnulty	%	1.7%	6.1%
43	Brent van Moer	%	1.9%	7.0%
44	Dylan van Baarle	%	1.5%	5.4%
45	Alex Molenaar	%	1.5%	5.7%
46	Egan Bernal	%	1.8%	6.2%
47	Alex Kirsch	%	1.6%	6.2%
48	Dorian Godon	%	1.7%	5.5%
49	Jordan Jegat	%	1.7%	6.2%
50	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	1.7%	5.8%
51	Ilan van Wilder	%	1.5%	5.9%
52	Ewen Costiou	%	1.7%	6.0%
53	Davide Piganzoli	%	1.4%	5.5%
54	Sepp Kuss	%	1.6%	5.8%
55	Louis Vervaeke	%	1.3%	4.6%
56	Simone Velasco	%	1.2%	4.2%
57	Frank van den Broek	%	1.1%	3.7%
58	Ben O Connor	%	1.6%	5.7%
59	Nicolas Breuillard	%	1.2%	4.3%
60	Guillaume Martin	%	1.2%	4.3%
61	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	1.4%	5.5%
62	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	1.2%	5.0%
63	Clement Braz Afonso	%	1.4%	5.6%
64	Nelson Oliveira	%	1.4%	5.8%
65	Vlad van Mechelen	%	1.1%	3.5%
66	Sergio Higuita	%	1.3%	4.9%
67	Marc Hirschi	%	1.1%	4.2%
68	Damiano Caruso	%	1.1%	4.0%
69	Pavel Bittner	%	1.0%	3.5%
70	Lewis Askey	%	1.1%	4.4%
71	Maxim van Gils	%	1.1%	3.5%
72	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	1.1%	4.2%
73	Florian Lipowitz	%	1.0%	4.0%
74	Edward Planckaert	%	0.9%	3.3%
75	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.9%	3.4%
76	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.9%	3.5%
77	Quinten Hermans	%	0.7%	3.1%
78	Liam Slock	%	1.0%	4.0%
79	Bruno Armirail	%	1.1%	3.9%
80	Matej Mohoric	%	0.9%	3.6%
81	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.9%	3.6%
82	Tobias Foss	%	0.8%	3.2%
83	Mike Teunissen	%	1.0%	3.1%
84	Luke Plapp	%	0.8%	3.5%
85	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	1.1%	3.8%
86	Daan Hoole	%	0.9%	3.5%
87	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.9%	3.4%
88	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	1.0%	3.4%
89	Joris Delbove	%	0.8%	2.9%
90	Derek Gee	%	0.8%	3.0%
91	Carlos Verona	%	0.8%	2.8%
92	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.8%	2.9%
93	Davide Ballerini	%	0.8%	2.8%
94	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.7%	2.6%
95	Warren Barguil	%	1.0%	3.9%
96	Rick Pluimers	%	0.8%	3.2%
97	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.8%	3.4%
98	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.9%	3.5%
99	Toms Skujins	%	0.9%	3.4%
100	Joel Nicolau	%	0.8%	3.0%
101	Jan Tratnik	%	0.8%	3.0%
102	Mathis le Berre	%	0.6%	2.6%
103	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.8%	2.9%
104	Einer Rubio	%	0.9%	3.4%
105	Stefano Oldani	%	0.7%	3.0%
106	Arvid de Kleijn	%	0.8%	2.8%
107	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.7%	2.7%
108	Quinn Simmons	%	0.6%	2.4%
109	Yannis Voisard	%	0.7%	2.5%
110	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.6%	1.9%
111	Alfred Wright	%	0.9%	3.5%
112	Michel Hessmann	%	0.8%	2.9%
113	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	0.8%	2.6%
114	Nico Denz	%	0.8%	2.5%
115	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.7%	2.2%
116	Jakub Otruba	%	0.7%	2.6%
117	Robert Stannard	%	0.7%	2.6%
118	Nils Politt	%	0.6%	2.4%
119	Ion Izagirre	%	0.6%	2.1%
120	Torstein Traeen	%	0.5%	2.0%
121	Tim Wellens	%	0.5%	1.8%
122	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.5%	1.6%
123	Marco Frigo	%	0.7%	2.4%
124	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.5%	2.3%
125	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.7%	2.5%
126	Sean Quinn	%	0.6%	2.5%
127	Matthew Riccitello	%	0.5%	2.1%
128	Piet Allegaert	%	0.6%	2.1%
129	Anthon Charmig	%	0.5%	1.7%
130	Adam Yates	%	0.5%	2.3%
131	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.8%	2.9%
132	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.7%	2.5%
133	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.7%	2.4%
134	Julius van den Berg	%	0.7%	2.5%
135	Javier Romo	%	0.5%	1.8%
136	Krists Neilands	%	0.5%	1.9%
137	Lars Craps	%	0.5%	1.6%
138	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.5%	1.9%
139	Tim Marsman	%	0.5%	1.8%
140	Luke Durbridge	%	0.4%	1.5%
141	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.4%	1.5%
142	Damien Howson	%	0.4%	1.5%
143	Chris Harper	%	0.6%	2.2%
144	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.5%	2.2%
145	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.5%	2.0%
146	Huub Artz	%	0.6%	1.9%
147	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.4%	1.4%
148	Tim Merlier	%	0.3%	1.3%
149	Silvan Dillier	%	0.4%	1.3%
150	Max Kanter	%	0.4%	1.8%
151	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.4%	1.4%
152	Quentin Pacher	%	0.4%	1.2%
153	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.3%	1.1%
154	Joshua Tarling	%	0.3%	1.1%
155	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.3%	1.1%
156	Bert van Lerberghe	%	0.4%	1.7%
157	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.3%	1.3%
158	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.4%	1.5%
159	Hugo Page	%	0.3%	1.1%
160	Edoardo Affini	%	0.2%	1.0%
161	Max Walker	%	0.2%	1.0%
162	Marco Haller	%	0.2%	0.6%
163	Matteo Trentin	%	0.5%	1.9%
164	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.4%	1.5%
165	Niklas Markl	%	0.4%	1.7%
166	Matis Louvel	%	0.2%	1.3%
167	Aaron Gate	%	0.3%	1.2%
168	John Degenkolb	%	0.3%	1.1%
169	Kelland Brien	%	0.3%	1.1%
170	Jake Stewart	%	0.1%	0.9%
171	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.2%	0.8%
172	Tim van Dijke	%	0.2%	1.1%
173	Anthony Turgis	%	0.2%	0.8%
174	Fernando Gaviria	%	0.2%	0.8%
175	Cees Bol	%	0.2%	0.8%
176	Clement Russo	%	0.1%	0.6%
177	Kamil Gradek	%	0.2%	0.7%
178	Milan Fretin	%	0.3%	1.1%
179	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.2%	1.1%
180	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.1%	0.7%
181	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.2%	0.6%
182	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.1%	0.6%

Show all 182 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 39.9%	Mads Pedersen 14.4% ✓	Mathieu van der Poel 15.3%
2	Remco Evenepoel 7.0%	Mathieu van der Poel 7.2%	Mads Pedersen 15.2% ✓
3	Mathieu van der Poel 3.6%	Mathias Vacek 6.5%	Romain Grégoire 11.2%
4	Isaac del Toro 3.1%	Romain Gregoire 3.8%	Alex Aranburu 11.0%
5	Mads Pedersen 2.0% ✓	Jasper Philipsen 3.1%	Maxim Van Gils 8.8%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 154%; the extra 54% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 5 · Lannemezan – Pau

Wednesday 8 July 2026

Winner: Olav Kooij

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Jasper Philipsen	%	42.0%	84.3%
2	Olav Kooij	%	17.0%	49.2%
3	Mads Pedersen	%	16.0%	48.3%
4	Tim Merlier	%	11.6%	37.3%
5	Tadej Pogacar	%	8.4%	27.1%
6	Biniam Girmay	%	8.1%	27.2%
7	Mathias Vacek	%	3.6%	13.0%
8	Isaac del Toro	%	4.0%	14.5%
9	Kevin Vauquelin	%	3.2%	12.1%
10	Max Kanter	%	3.0%	10.4%
11	Arvid de Kleijn	%	3.3%	11.3%
12	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	3.2%	10.8%
13	Tom Pidcock	%	3.2%	10.9%
14	Jasper Stuyven	%	2.4%	8.3%
15	Phil Bauhaus	%	2.9%	11.2%
16	Richard Carapaz	%	3.0%	10.4%
17	Matteo Jorgenson	%	2.6%	9.5%
18	Mathieu van der Poel	%	3.2%	10.6%
19	Paul Seixas	%	2.6%	9.2%
20	Soren Waerenskjold	%	2.5%	8.5%
21	Fernando Gaviria	%	2.6%	8.9%
22	Pascal Ackermann	%	2.5%	10.1%
23	Alex Kirsch	%	2.3%	8.1%
24	Clement Braz Afonso	%	2.1%	7.8%
25	Thymen Arensman	%	2.2%	7.7%
26	Pavel Bittner	%	2.1%	7.5%
27	Brent van Moer	%	2.4%	8.4%
28	Matheo Vercher	%	1.7%	6.2%
29	Dorian Godon	%	1.8%	7.5%
30	Cian Uijtdebroeks	%	2.1%	8.4%
31	Per Strand Hagenes	%	2.3%	7.8%
32	Derek Gee	%	2.1%	7.6%
33	Nelson Oliveira	%	1.5%	5.8%
34	Michael Matthews	%	2.0%	7.1%
35	Rick Pluimers	%	1.9%	6.6%
36	Mathis le Berre	%	2.1%	8.6%
37	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	1.5%	5.1%
38	Florian Vermeersch	%	1.7%	6.1%
39	Felix Grossschartner	%	1.7%	6.5%
40	Sepp Kuss	%	1.4%	5.6%
41	Einer Rubio	%	1.8%	6.4%
42	Niklas Markl	%	1.4%	5.1%
43	Alex Molenaar	%	1.5%	5.4%
44	Tim van Dijke	%	1.7%	6.7%
45	Xandro Meurisse	%	1.3%	4.9%
46	Romain Gregoire	%	1.6%	6.2%
47	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	1.6%	6.4%
48	Davide Ballerini	%	1.7%	6.3%
49	Joris Delbove	%	1.5%	6.2%
50	Alex Baudin	%	1.6%	5.6%
51	Tiesj Benoot	%	1.4%	5.5%
52	George Bennett	%	1.5%	5.1%
53	Georg Zimmermann	%	1.6%	5.5%
54	Edoardo Affini	%	1.4%	5.1%
55	Jonas Vingegaard	%	1.4%	5.0%
56	Alexandre Delettre	%	1.2%	4.7%
57	Florian Lipowitz	%	1.4%	5.4%
58	Guillaume Martin	%	1.4%	4.7%
59	Tobias Foss	%	0.9%	3.7%
60	Brandon Mcnulty	%	1.1%	3.8%
61	Carlos Verona	%	1.0%	3.9%
62	Ewen Costiou	%	1.4%	4.8%
63	Ion Izagirre	%	1.0%	3.4%
64	Jai Hindley	%	1.5%	5.5%
65	Robert Stannard	%	1.4%	5.0%
66	Remco Evenepoel	%	1.0%	4.5%
67	Daan Hoole	%	1.1%	4.6%
68	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	1.2%	4.7%
69	Mike Teunissen	%	1.4%	5.3%
70	Filippo Ganna	%	1.2%	4.8%
71	Frank van den Broek	%	1.1%	4.0%
72	Ilan van Wilder	%	1.1%	4.0%
73	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	1.1%	3.6%
74	Ben Healy	%	1.0%	3.4%
75	Sebastian Berwick	%	1.1%	4.0%
76	Jake Stewart	%	1.0%	4.1%
77	Edward Planckaert	%	1.1%	3.7%
78	Mauro Schmid	%	0.9%	3.3%
79	Jordan Jegat	%	0.8%	2.2%
80	Nico Denz	%	1.3%	5.6%
81	Adam Yates	%	0.8%	3.0%
82	Bruno Armirail	%	1.0%	4.1%
83	Huub Artz	%	1.0%	3.8%
84	Anders Skaarseth	%	1.1%	4.0%
85	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.9%	3.6%
86	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.9%	3.2%
87	Lorenzo Germani	%	1.0%	3.5%
88	Damiano Caruso	%	1.2%	4.2%
89	Milan Fretin	%	1.1%	4.1%
90	Sean Quinn	%	0.8%	3.6%
91	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	0.6%	2.9%
92	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	0.6%	2.0%
93	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	1.0%	3.8%
94	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.8%	3.1%
95	Nils Politt	%	0.9%	2.9%
96	Maxim van Gils	%	0.8%	2.6%
97	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	1.0%	3.9%
98	Mattia Cattaneo	%	1.0%	3.9%
99	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.8%	3.0%
100	Davide Piganzoli	%	0.8%	3.0%
101	Yannis Voisard	%	0.9%	3.3%
102	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.9%	3.3%
103	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.8%	3.0%
104	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.7%	2.7%
105	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	0.7%	3.0%
106	Quinn Simmons	%	0.8%	2.7%
107	Piet Allegaert	%	0.7%	2.4%
108	Joel Nicolau	%	1.1%	4.0%
109	Harold Tejada	%	0.8%	3.1%
110	Anthon Charmig	%	0.5%	2.0%
111	Michael Storer	%	0.8%	2.8%
112	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	0.9%	3.2%
113	Quinten Hermans	%	0.8%	2.8%
114	Sergio Higuita	%	0.8%	2.8%
115	Lewis Askey	%	0.8%	2.4%
116	Matteo Trentin	%	0.7%	2.6%
117	Hugo Page	%	0.6%	2.3%
118	Lenny Martinez	%	0.7%	2.4%
119	Luke Plapp	%	0.6%	2.0%
120	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.8%	3.4%
121	Bert van Lerberghe	%	0.7%	2.6%
122	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.7%	2.5%
123	Alfred Wright	%	0.8%	2.7%
124	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.8%	3.0%
125	Ben O Connor	%	0.7%	3.0%
126	Luke Durbridge	%	0.6%	2.4%
127	Egan Bernal	%	0.7%	2.4%
128	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.5%	2.2%
129	Liam Slock	%	0.7%	2.0%
130	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.6%	2.0%
131	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.6%	1.9%
132	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.6%	1.8%
133	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.6%	2.5%
134	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.6%	2.2%
135	Torstein Traeen	%	0.6%	2.0%
136	Chris Harper	%	0.6%	1.8%
137	Jan Tratnik	%	0.5%	1.8%
138	Matis Louvel	%	0.6%	1.9%
139	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.4%	1.9%
140	Damien Howson	%	0.5%	1.9%
141	Alex Aranburu	%	0.8%	2.6%
142	Lars Craps	%	0.6%	2.5%
143	Michel Hessmann	%	0.6%	2.6%
144	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.5%	2.0%
145	Marc Hirschi	%	0.5%	2.0%
146	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.5%	1.9%
147	Matthew Riccitello	%	0.4%	1.8%
148	Javier Romo	%	0.5%	1.6%
149	Stefano Oldani	%	0.4%	1.7%
150	Marco Frigo	%	0.4%	1.4%
151	Toms Skujins	%	0.5%	2.2%
152	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.6%	2.6%
153	Tim Marsman	%	0.4%	1.8%
154	Simone Velasco	%	0.6%	2.4%
155	Jakub Otruba	%	0.4%	1.9%
156	John Degenkolb	%	0.6%	2.1%
157	Matej Mohoric	%	0.5%	1.6%
158	Julius van den Berg	%	0.5%	1.8%
159	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.5%	1.7%
160	Quentin Pacher	%	0.4%	1.5%
161	Clement Russo	%	0.4%	1.4%
162	Silvan Dillier	%	0.3%	1.3%
163	Kamil Gradek	%	0.4%	1.3%
164	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.3%	1.1%
165	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.6%	1.9%
166	Max Walker	%	0.3%	1.5%
167	Joshua Tarling	%	0.4%	1.4%
168	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.3%	1.4%
169	Tim Wellens	%	0.3%	1.4%
170	Aaron Gate	%	0.3%	1.8%
171	Warren Barguil	%	0.4%	1.9%
172	Cees Bol	%	0.4%	1.7%
173	Anthony Turgis	%	0.2%	1.3%
174	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	0.4%	1.5%
175	Krists Neilands	%	0.4%	1.6%
176	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.3%	1.2%
177	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.2%	0.8%
178	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.2%	1.0%
179	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.2%	0.9%
180	Marco Haller	%	0.2%	0.8%
181	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.3%	1.2%

Show all 181 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Jasper Philipsen 33.3%	Tim Merlier 26.4%	Jasper Philipsen 35.4%
2	Olav Kooij 9.1% ✓	Jasper Philipsen 17.8%	Tim Merlier 22.1%
3	Mads Pedersen 7.8%	Biniam Girmay 15.8%	Biniam Girmay 15.0%
4	Tim Merlier 5.1%	Olav Kooij 14.2% ✓	Mads Pedersen 7.6%
5	Tadej Pogacar 3.3%	Mads Pedersen 4.7%	Olav Kooij 7.4% ✓

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 140%; the extra 40% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 6 · Pau – Gavarnie-Gèdre

Thursday 9 July 2026

Winner: Tadej Pogacar

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	98.0%	100.0%
2	Jonas Vingegaard	%	29.6%	81.5%
3	Remco Evenepoel	%	16.7%	59.3%
4	Isaac del Toro	%	10.5%	44.2%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	9.4%	40.2%
6	Matteo Jorgenson	%	4.5%	20.9%
7	Jai Hindley	%	4.5%	20.7%
8	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	4.1%	19.8%
9	Lenny Martinez	%	4.5%	19.6%
10	Richard Carapaz	%	4.1%	20.2%
11	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	2.8%	12.6%
12	Paul Seixas	%	3.2%	16.3%
13	Ben O Connor	%	2.5%	12.4%
14	Egan Bernal	%	3.2%	16.1%
15	Thymen Arensman	%	2.6%	14.2%
16	Florian Lipowitz	%	2.8%	13.8%
17	Cian Uijtdebroeks	%	2.4%	12.2%
18	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	3.0%	15.1%
19	Michael Storer	%	2.8%	12.8%
20	Ilan van Wilder	%	2.3%	10.4%
21	Sepp Kuss	%	2.3%	10.7%
22	Kevin Vauquelin	%	1.8%	9.2%
23	Jordan Jegat	%	2.1%	9.6%
24	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	2.4%	12.3%
25	Harold Tejada	%	2.0%	10.3%
26	Derek Gee	%	1.9%	9.3%
27	Guillaume Martin	%	1.8%	8.8%
28	Sergio Higuita	%	1.6%	8.3%
29	Chris Harper	%	1.7%	8.2%
30	Tiesj Benoot	%	1.9%	9.5%
31	Davide Piganzoli	%	1.5%	7.8%
32	Ben Healy	%	1.3%	6.9%
33	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	1.6%	7.3%
34	George Bennett	%	1.5%	7.1%
35	Tom Pidcock	%	1.6%	7.0%
36	Matthew Riccitello	%	1.2%	6.0%
37	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	2.1%	9.0%
38	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	1.5%	7.6%
39	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	1.6%	7.4%
40	Alex Baudin	%	1.5%	7.0%
41	Ramses Debruyne	%	1.1%	6.3%
42	Adam Yates	%	1.3%	6.5%
43	Alex Aranburu	%	1.0%	5.9%
44	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.8%	4.6%
45	Mathieu van der Poel	%	0.8%	4.2%
46	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.8%	4.2%
47	Marc Hirschi	%	0.8%	4.2%
48	Warren Barguil	%	1.1%	6.0%
49	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	1.2%	5.4%
50	Torstein Traeen	%	0.9%	4.9%
51	Mathias Vacek	%	1.0%	4.4%
52	Marco Frigo	%	0.6%	3.0%
53	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.7%	2.9%
54	Tim Marsman	%	0.5%	2.4%
55	Soren Waerenskjold	%	0.6%	2.4%
56	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.5%	2.3%
57	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.5%	2.4%
58	Yannis Voisard	%	0.8%	4.8%
59	Per Strand Hagenes	%	1.0%	5.3%
60	Mauro Schmid	%	1.0%	4.8%
61	Clement Braz Afonso	%	0.9%	4.5%
62	Carlos Verona	%	1.0%	4.4%
63	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.8%	4.3%
64	Damiano Caruso	%	0.7%	3.5%
65	Romain Gregoire	%	0.6%	3.4%
66	Jakub Otruba	%	0.6%	3.4%
67	Einer Rubio	%	0.5%	3.5%
68	Matej Mohoric	%	0.6%	3.3%
69	Lars Craps	%	0.5%	2.8%
70	Simone Velasco	%	0.5%	2.6%
71	Ion Izagirre	%	0.5%	2.6%
72	Edward Planckaert	%	0.3%	2.1%
73	Nelson Oliveira	%	0.5%	2.5%
74	Damien Howson	%	0.4%	2.1%
75	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.5%	2.2%
76	Jasper Stuyven	%	0.3%	1.8%
77	Daan Hoole	%	0.3%	1.4%
78	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.6%	3.9%
79	Luke Plapp	%	0.6%	3.2%
80	Matheo Vercher	%	0.5%	3.0%
81	Brandon Mcnulty	%	0.6%	3.1%
82	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.5%	3.0%
83	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.5%	2.4%
84	Javier Romo	%	0.5%	2.6%
85	Alex Kirsch	%	0.4%	2.2%
86	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.5%	2.5%
87	Michael Matthews	%	0.6%	2.8%
88	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.5%	2.8%
89	Julius van den Berg	%	0.4%	2.0%
90	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.4%	2.2%
91	Jan Tratnik	%	0.4%	2.1%
92	Rick Pluimers	%	0.3%	2.0%
93	Ewen Costiou	%	0.3%	2.0%
94	Joel Nicolau	%	0.4%	2.3%
95	Bruno Armirail	%	0.3%	1.8%
96	Toms Skujins	%	0.4%	1.8%
97	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.4%	1.9%
98	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.4%	1.9%
99	Maxim van Gils	%	0.3%	1.8%
100	Frank van den Broek	%	0.4%	1.8%
101	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.4%	1.8%
102	Brent van Moer	%	0.3%	1.6%
103	Joris Delbove	%	0.3%	1.5%
104	Liam Slock	%	0.4%	1.8%
105	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.3%	1.7%
106	Mike Teunissen	%	0.3%	1.6%
107	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.2%	1.4%
108	Tobias Foss	%	0.3%	1.3%
109	Joshua Tarling	%	0.4%	1.7%
110	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.3%	1.3%
111	Nico Denz	%	0.2%	1.2%
112	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.3%	1.2%
113	Huub Artz	%	0.2%	1.3%
114	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.3%	1.2%
115	Krists Neilands	%	0.2%	1.4%
116	Nils Politt	%	0.3%	1.2%
117	Alfred Wright	%	0.3%	1.3%
118	Mathis le Berre	%	0.4%	1.2%
119	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.2%	1.0%
120	Quentin Pacher	%	0.2%	0.9%
121	Arvid de Kleijn	%	0.1%	0.9%
122	Davide Ballerini	%	0.2%	0.9%
123	Lewis Askey	%	0.2%	0.9%
124	Max Walker	%	0.1%	0.7%
125	Michel Hessmann	%	0.2%	0.8%
126	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.1%	0.8%
127	Sean Quinn	%	0.2%	0.7%
128	John Degenkolb	%	0.2%	0.7%
129	Milan Fretin	%	0.1%	0.6%
130	Biniam Girmay	%	0.2%	0.6%
131	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.6%	3.1%
132	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.5%	2.2%
133	Filippo Ganna	%	0.3%	1.6%
134	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.2%	1.4%
135	Mads Pedersen	%	0.2%	1.1%
136	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.2%	1.3%
137	Matis Louvel	%	0.2%	1.3%
138	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.3%	1.1%
139	Stefano Oldani	%	0.2%	1.0%
140	Piet Allegaert	%	0.2%	1.1%
141	Anthon Charmig	%	0.2%	1.0%
142	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.1%	1.0%
143	Hugo Page	%	0.2%	0.9%
144	Silvan Dillier	%	0.2%	0.8%
145	Aaron Gate	%	0.1%	0.8%
146	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.3%	1.0%
147	Jake Stewart	%	0.1%	0.7%
148	Tim Wellens	%	0.1%	0.9%
149	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.1%	0.7%
150	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.1%	0.8%
151	Quinten Hermans	%	0.1%	0.8%
152	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.2%	0.9%
153	Max Kanter	%	0.2%	0.8%
154	Edoardo Affini	%	0.1%	0.9%
155	Robert Stannard	%	0.2%	0.9%
156	Olav Kooij	%	0.2%	0.8%
157	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.1%	0.7%
158	Bert van Lerberghe	%	0.2%	0.8%
159	Pavel Bittner	%	0.1%	0.9%
160	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.1%	0.5%
161	Luke Durbridge	%	0.2%	0.7%
162	Quinn Simmons	%	0.1%	0.7%
163	Dorian Godon	%	0.1%	0.6%
164	Anthony Turgis	%	0.1%	0.7%
165	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.1%	0.6%
166	Niklas Markl	%	0.1%	0.6%
167	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.1%	0.4%
168	Kamil Gradek	%	0.1%	0.4%
169	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.1%	0.4%
170	Tim Merlier	%	0.1%	0.4%
171	Cees Bol	%	0.1%	0.3%
172	Fernando Gaviria	%	0.1%	0.4%
173	Tim van Dijke	%	0.1%	0.5%
174	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.1%	0.4%
175	Jasper Philipsen	%	0.1%	0.4%
176	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.1%	0.3%
177	Matteo Trentin	%	0.1%	0.3%
178	Clement Russo	%	0.0%	0.2%
179	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.0%	0.3%
180	Marco Haller	%	0.1%	0.3%

Show all 180 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 84.7% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 50.1% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 19.7% ✓
2	Jonas Vingegaard 4.8%	Isaac del Toro 4.4%	Jonas Vingegaard 10.1%
3	Remco Evenepoel 2.2%	Jonas Vingegaard 3.9%	Isaac del Toro 9.3%
4	Isaac del Toro 1.0%	Valentin Paret Peintre 3.2%	Valentin Paret-Peintre 8.0%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera 0.8%	Lenny Martinez 2.6%	Alex Baudin 7.3%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 150%; the extra 50% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 7 · Hagetmau – Bordeaux

Friday 10 July 2026

Winner: Tim Merlier

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Jasper Philipsen	%	65.0%	98.2%
2	Olav Kooij	%	37.9%	88.2%
3	Tim Merlier	%	33.3%	82.7%
4	Mads Pedersen	%	14.1%	50.9%
5	Biniam Girmay	%	8.5%	35.2%
6	Max Kanter	%	4.5%	18.9%
7	Phil Bauhaus	%	4.6%	19.0%
8	Pascal Ackermann	%	4.2%	17.9%
9	Fernando Gaviria	%	3.2%	14.4%
10	Soren Waerenskjold	%	2.5%	10.7%
11	Mathias Vacek	%	2.1%	9.6%
12	Mathis le Berre	%	1.9%	10.1%
13	Kevin Vauquelin	%	2.3%	9.5%
14	Brandon Mcnulty	%	2.0%	9.3%
15	Edoardo Affini	%	1.6%	7.2%
16	Tobias Foss	%	1.7%	6.8%
17	Tim van Dijke	%	1.9%	8.5%
18	Pavel Bittner	%	1.8%	8.7%
19	Tom Pidcock	%	1.9%	8.5%
20	Matheo Vercher	%	1.5%	6.6%
21	Alex Kirsch	%	1.7%	7.9%
22	Lorenzo Germani	%	1.8%	8.4%
23	Xandro Meurisse	%	1.7%	7.7%
24	Florian Vermeersch	%	1.8%	7.8%
25	Dorian Godon	%	1.7%	7.8%
26	Sean Quinn	%	1.5%	6.3%
27	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	1.2%	5.8%
28	Einer Rubio	%	1.3%	6.4%
29	Jasper Stuyven	%	1.4%	6.4%
30	Michael Matthews	%	1.4%	5.9%
31	Thymen Arensman	%	1.2%	4.6%
32	Rick Pluimers	%	1.6%	6.9%
33	Milan Fretin	%	1.4%	6.3%
34	Huub Artz	%	1.4%	6.0%
35	Tadej Pogacar	%	1.1%	4.8%
36	Jake Stewart	%	1.3%	5.0%
37	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.9%	4.6%
38	Nelson Oliveira	%	1.1%	5.7%
39	Joris Delbove	%	1.1%	5.0%
40	Kasper Asgreen	%	1.5%	6.7%
41	Brent van Moer	%	1.3%	6.5%
42	Clement Braz Afonso	%	1.2%	5.4%
43	Florian Lipowitz	%	1.2%	5.3%
44	Adam Yates	%	1.0%	4.9%
45	Robert Stannard	%	1.1%	5.6%
46	Mike Teunissen	%	1.2%	4.8%
47	Davide Ballerini	%	1.2%	5.0%
48	Paul Seixas	%	1.1%	4.7%
49	Niklas Markl	%	0.8%	4.2%
50	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	1.0%	5.4%
51	Nico Denz	%	1.1%	5.1%
52	Matteo Jorgenson	%	1.1%	4.7%
53	Edward Planckaert	%	1.1%	4.5%
54	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.9%	4.0%
55	Sepp Kuss	%	1.0%	4.1%
56	Bruno Armirail	%	0.7%	3.8%
57	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.9%	3.5%
58	Romain Gregoire	%	0.9%	4.1%
59	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.8%	4.2%
60	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	0.9%	3.6%
61	Yannis Voisard	%	0.8%	3.5%
62	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.6%	2.9%
63	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.7%	3.0%
64	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.6%	2.5%
65	Per Strand Hagenes	%	1.0%	5.3%
66	Anders Skaarseth	%	1.0%	4.5%
67	Derek Gee	%	1.0%	4.7%
68	Joel Nicolau	%	0.8%	3.7%
69	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.8%	3.8%
70	Michel Hessmann	%	0.8%	3.5%
71	Damiano Caruso	%	0.8%	4.3%
72	Anthony Turgis	%	0.8%	4.4%
73	Quinn Simmons	%	0.9%	4.1%
74	Cees Bol	%	0.7%	3.8%
75	Mathieu van der Poel	%	0.6%	3.2%
76	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.7%	3.1%
77	Alfred Wright	%	0.8%	3.1%
78	Davide Piganzoli	%	0.7%	3.1%
79	Frank van den Broek	%	0.7%	3.7%
80	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.8%	3.8%
81	Ewen Costiou	%	0.6%	3.4%
82	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.6%	2.9%
83	Daan Hoole	%	0.7%	3.3%
84	Filippo Ganna	%	0.6%	3.0%
85	Alex Baudin	%	0.5%	2.8%
86	Jai Hindley	%	0.6%	2.6%
87	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.5%	2.2%
88	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.5%	2.3%
89	Ion Izagirre	%	0.6%	3.7%
90	Richard Carapaz	%	0.7%	3.3%
91	Lars Craps	%	0.6%	3.3%
92	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.5%	2.6%
93	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.6%	2.6%
94	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.6%	2.7%
95	George Bennett	%	0.6%	2.5%
96	Ben O Connor	%	0.4%	1.7%
97	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.6%	1.9%
98	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.3%	1.4%
99	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.7%	3.6%
100	Matteo Trentin	%	0.7%	3.2%
101	Maxim van Gils	%	0.6%	3.0%
102	Stefano Oldani	%	0.6%	2.6%
103	Tim Wellens	%	0.6%	2.8%
104	John Degenkolb	%	0.7%	2.9%
105	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.6%	2.7%
106	Clement Russo	%	0.4%	2.4%
107	Max Walker	%	0.6%	2.6%
108	Isaac del Toro	%	0.5%	2.3%
109	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.5%	2.3%
110	Hugo Page	%	0.5%	2.4%
111	Nils Politt	%	0.4%	2.3%
112	Aaron Gate	%	0.5%	2.3%
113	Luke Durbridge	%	0.4%	2.0%
114	Toms Skujins	%	0.5%	2.4%
115	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.6%	2.4%
116	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.5%	2.3%
117	Javier Romo	%	0.5%	2.0%
118	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	0.5%	2.0%
119	Egan Bernal	%	0.4%	1.9%
120	Remco Evenepoel	%	0.4%	1.7%
121	Damien Howson	%	0.4%	1.6%
122	Lenny Martinez	%	0.3%	1.5%
123	Krists Neilands	%	0.3%	1.3%
124	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.5%	2.6%
125	Sergio Higuita	%	0.5%	2.2%
126	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.5%	2.1%
127	Quentin Pacher	%	0.4%	2.0%
128	Luke Plapp	%	0.4%	1.9%
129	Harold Tejada	%	0.4%	1.6%
130	Ilan van Wilder	%	0.4%	1.7%
131	Simone Velasco	%	0.2%	1.3%
132	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	0.4%	1.4%
133	Tim Marsman	%	0.2%	1.2%
134	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	0.3%	1.3%
135	Joshua Tarling	%	0.3%	1.1%
136	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.5%	2.8%
137	Quinten Hermans	%	0.4%	2.4%
138	Jonas Vingegaard	%	0.4%	2.1%
139	Tiesj Benoot	%	0.3%	2.3%
140	Lewis Askey	%	0.4%	1.9%
141	Anthon Charmig	%	0.4%	1.9%
142	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	0.3%	1.8%
143	Carlos Verona	%	0.4%	1.6%
144	Michael Storer	%	0.3%	1.5%
145	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	0.3%	1.5%
146	Matis Louvel	%	0.3%	1.6%
147	Chris Harper	%	0.3%	1.3%
148	Jordan Jegat	%	0.3%	1.5%
149	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.4%	1.6%
150	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.3%	1.4%
151	Alex Aranburu	%	0.3%	1.4%
152	Kamil Gradek	%	0.3%	1.4%
153	Jan Tratnik	%	0.3%	1.4%
154	Marco Haller	%	0.3%	1.3%
155	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.3%	1.2%
156	Ben Healy	%	0.2%	0.9%
157	Marco Frigo	%	0.2%	1.1%
158	Silvan Dillier	%	0.3%	1.1%
159	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.4%	1.8%
160	Guillaume Martin	%	0.3%	1.5%
161	Marc Hirschi	%	0.4%	1.7%
162	Warren Barguil	%	0.3%	1.6%
163	Liam Slock	%	0.4%	1.5%
164	Matthew Riccitello	%	0.2%	1.3%
165	Piet Allegaert	%	0.2%	1.4%
166	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.2%	1.1%
167	Jakub Otruba	%	0.3%	1.3%
168	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	0.2%	1.2%
169	Julius van den Berg	%	0.2%	1.0%
170	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.3%	1.3%
171	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.2%	0.9%
172	Mauro Schmid	%	0.1%	0.8%
173	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.2%	0.8%
174	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.1%	0.7%
175	Matej Mohoric	%	0.2%	1.0%
176	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.1%	0.6%

Show all 176 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Jasper Philipsen 44.4%	Tim Merlier 32.3% ✓	Jasper Philipsen 20.8%
2	Olav Kooij 18.4%	Olav Kooij 24.2%	Tim Merlier 20.6% ✓
3	Tim Merlier 15.0% ✓	Jasper Philipsen 12.1%	Olav Kooij 19.0%
4	Mads Pedersen 4.4%	Biniam Girmay 8.1%	Max Kanter 10.3%
5	Biniam Girmay 1.9%	Max Kanter 4.8%	Pavel Bittner 7.6%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 138%; the extra 38% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 8 · Périgueux – Bergerac

Saturday 11 July 2026

Winner: Tim Merlier

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Jasper Philipsen	%	67.5%	98.8%
2	Tim Merlier	%	41.4%	91.0%
3	Olav Kooij	%	37.7%	88.9%
4	Mads Pedersen	%	12.1%	46.1%
5	Biniam Girmay	%	10.3%	42.5%
6	Phil Bauhaus	%	5.1%	22.5%
7	Max Kanter	%	4.5%	20.3%
8	Pascal Ackermann	%	4.5%	20.0%
9	Fernando Gaviria	%	3.6%	17.2%
10	Soren Waerenskjold	%	2.6%	12.1%
11	Tim van Dijke	%	2.0%	9.3%
12	Mathias Vacek	%	2.0%	9.2%
13	Dorian Godon	%	2.4%	11.4%
14	Mathis le Berre	%	1.6%	8.6%
15	Milan Fretin	%	1.9%	8.6%
16	Brandon Mcnulty	%	1.8%	9.1%
17	Pavel Bittner	%	1.8%	9.5%
18	Kevin Vauquelin	%	2.0%	8.8%
19	Florian Vermeersch	%	1.6%	8.0%
20	Matheo Vercher	%	1.4%	6.2%
21	Edoardo Affini	%	1.4%	6.5%
22	Tom Pidcock	%	1.6%	8.0%
23	Thymen Arensman	%	1.3%	4.9%
24	Kasper Asgreen	%	1.7%	8.2%
25	Xandro Meurisse	%	1.6%	7.6%
26	Rick Pluimers	%	1.5%	7.1%
27	Einer Rubio	%	1.1%	5.9%
28	Huub Artz	%	1.5%	6.6%
29	Clement Braz Afonso	%	1.3%	6.2%
30	Tobias Foss	%	1.3%	5.4%
31	Lorenzo Germani	%	1.3%	6.3%
32	Alex Kirsch	%	1.2%	6.0%
33	Jake Stewart	%	1.3%	5.0%
34	Brent van Moer	%	1.4%	7.2%
35	Davide Ballerini	%	1.4%	6.1%
36	Jasper Stuyven	%	1.1%	5.5%
37	Per Strand Hagenes	%	1.4%	7.0%
38	Mike Teunissen	%	1.2%	5.3%
39	Niklas Markl	%	1.0%	5.1%
40	Nelson Oliveira	%	1.0%	5.4%
41	Joris Delbove	%	1.0%	5.0%
42	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.9%	4.4%
43	Michael Matthews	%	1.0%	4.1%
44	Anthony Turgis	%	1.1%	6.2%
45	Robert Stannard	%	1.0%	5.5%
46	Adam Yates	%	1.0%	5.0%
47	Sean Quinn	%	1.0%	4.7%
48	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.9%	4.2%
49	Nico Denz	%	1.0%	5.0%
50	Cees Bol	%	0.9%	4.8%
51	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.9%	4.7%
52	Romain Gregoire	%	0.9%	4.2%
53	Sepp Kuss	%	1.1%	4.5%
54	Yannis Voisard	%	0.8%	3.8%
55	Florian Lipowitz	%	0.8%	3.7%
56	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	1.1%	5.2%
57	Edward Planckaert	%	0.8%	4.1%
58	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.7%	4.1%
59	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.7%	3.4%
60	Bruno Armirail	%	0.7%	3.5%
61	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	0.6%	2.8%
62	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.7%	3.0%
63	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.7%	3.1%
64	Maxim van Gils	%	0.8%	4.6%
65	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.9%	4.3%
66	Daan Hoole	%	0.8%	4.2%
67	Matteo Jorgenson	%	0.9%	3.8%
68	Quinn Simmons	%	0.8%	3.9%
69	Paul Seixas	%	0.8%	3.5%
70	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.6%	3.1%
71	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.5%	2.6%
72	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.5%	2.5%
73	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.5%	2.3%
74	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.8%	4.2%
75	Clement Russo	%	0.6%	4.0%
76	Joel Nicolau	%	0.6%	3.2%
77	Damien Howson	%	0.4%	1.9%
78	Alfred Wright	%	0.8%	3.0%
79	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.5%	3.0%
80	Toms Skujins	%	0.6%	3.0%
81	Max Walker	%	0.6%	2.8%
82	Mathieu van der Poel	%	0.5%	2.5%
83	Tadej Pogacar	%	0.7%	2.5%
84	Davide Piganzoli	%	0.5%	2.6%
85	Jai Hindley	%	0.5%	2.3%
86	Ben O Connor	%	0.4%	1.6%
87	Matteo Trentin	%	0.7%	3.3%
88	Frank van den Broek	%	0.5%	3.5%
89	Lars Craps	%	0.6%	3.1%
90	Alex Baudin	%	0.5%	2.7%
91	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.6%	3.0%
92	Tim Wellens	%	0.6%	2.6%
93	Nils Politt	%	0.5%	2.4%
94	Aaron Gate	%	0.4%	2.5%
95	Michel Hessmann	%	0.5%	2.3%
96	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.6%	2.4%
97	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.5%	2.4%
98	Javier Romo	%	0.4%	1.8%
99	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	0.4%	1.9%
100	Damiano Caruso	%	0.7%	3.5%
101	Derek Gee	%	0.6%	3.0%
102	Tiesj Benoot	%	0.4%	2.8%
103	Isaac del Toro	%	0.5%	2.5%
104	Piet Allegaert	%	0.5%	2.7%
105	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.5%	2.4%
106	Stefano Oldani	%	0.5%	2.3%
107	Anthon Charmig	%	0.5%	2.4%
108	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.5%	2.2%
109	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.5%	2.3%
110	John Degenkolb	%	0.5%	2.4%
111	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.5%	2.3%
112	Hugo Page	%	0.4%	2.1%
113	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.4%	2.1%
114	Richard Carapaz	%	0.4%	2.1%
115	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.4%	1.8%
116	Harold Tejada	%	0.4%	1.5%
117	Egan Bernal	%	0.3%	1.4%
118	Simone Velasco	%	0.2%	1.2%
119	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	0.4%	1.4%
120	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.4%	1.5%
121	Tim Marsman	%	0.2%	1.1%
122	Krists Neilands	%	0.3%	1.3%
123	Joshua Tarling	%	0.2%	0.9%
124	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.2%	1.0%
125	Quinten Hermans	%	0.3%	2.4%
126	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.5%	2.4%
127	Matis Louvel	%	0.5%	2.7%
128	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.4%	2.4%
129	Luke Durbridge	%	0.3%	1.8%
130	Ewen Costiou	%	0.3%	1.7%
131	Sergio Higuita	%	0.4%	1.9%
132	Julius van den Berg	%	0.3%	1.7%
133	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.2%	1.8%
134	Filippo Ganna	%	0.4%	1.8%
135	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.4%	1.5%
136	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.4%	1.8%
137	Carlos Verona	%	0.3%	1.5%
138	Jordan Jegat	%	0.3%	1.6%
139	Remco Evenepoel	%	0.3%	1.4%
140	Quentin Pacher	%	0.3%	1.4%
141	Luke Plapp	%	0.3%	1.5%
142	Kamil Gradek	%	0.3%	1.3%
143	George Bennett	%	0.3%	1.4%
144	Ilan van Wilder	%	0.3%	1.3%
145	Lenny Martinez	%	0.2%	1.1%
146	Alex Aranburu	%	0.2%	1.1%
147	Marco Frigo	%	0.2%	0.9%
148	Silvan Dillier	%	0.2%	0.9%
149	Ion Izagirre	%	0.3%	2.2%
150	Jonas Vingegaard	%	0.3%	1.9%
151	Guillaume Martin	%	0.3%	1.5%
152	Lewis Askey	%	0.3%	1.8%
153	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	0.2%	1.4%
154	Michael Storer	%	0.3%	1.2%
155	Liam Slock	%	0.3%	1.5%
156	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	0.3%	1.2%
157	Chris Harper	%	0.3%	1.3%
158	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.2%	1.2%
159	Marc Hirschi	%	0.3%	1.5%
160	Marco Haller	%	0.3%	1.2%
161	Warren Barguil	%	0.2%	1.3%
162	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.3%	1.2%
163	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.3%	1.4%
164	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	0.2%	1.0%
165	Jan Tratnik	%	0.2%	0.9%
166	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	0.2%	0.9%
167	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.2%	1.0%
168	Ben Healy	%	0.1%	0.7%
169	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.1%	0.7%
170	Mauro Schmid	%	0.1%	0.6%
171	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.1%	0.5%
172	Matej Mohoric	%	0.2%	1.1%
173	Jakub Otruba	%	0.2%	1.2%
174	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.1%	0.9%
175	Matthew Riccitello	%	0.1%	1.1%
176	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.1%	0.5%

Show all 176 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Jasper Philipsen 44.4%	Tim Merlier 41.6% ✓	Tim Merlier 25.0% ✓
2	Tim Merlier 19.7% ✓	Olav Kooij 17.2%	Jasper Philipsen 21.6%
3	Olav Kooij 16.5%	Jasper Philipsen 12.5%	Olav Kooij 15.9%
4	Mads Pedersen 3.0%	Biniam Girmay 5.3%	Søren Wærenskjold 10.4%
5	Biniam Girmay 2.3%	Max Kanter 3.6%	Biniam Girmay 9.4%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 146%; the extra 46% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 9 · Malemort – Ussel

Sunday 12 July 2026

Winner: Mathieu van der Poel

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	62.9%	96.8%
2	Remco Evenepoel	%	16.3%	50.5%
3	Isaac del Toro	%	9.7%	33.9%
4	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	8.2%	29.4%
5	Matteo Jorgenson	%	6.1%	21.3%
6	Mathieu van der Poel	%	6.8%	25.1%
7	Paul Seixas	%	5.7%	20.3%
8	Mads Pedersen	%	5.6%	20.9%
9	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	4.8%	19.2%
10	Mathias Vacek	%	3.6%	13.1%
11	Michael Matthews	%	3.7%	13.0%
12	Kevin Vauquelin	%	3.7%	14.6%
13	Tiesj Benoot	%	3.5%	14.1%
14	Lenny Martinez	%	3.4%	12.8%
15	Jonas Vingegaard	%	3.1%	13.0%
16	Anders Skaarseth	%	3.1%	11.3%
17	Tom Pidcock	%	2.6%	10.1%
18	Jasper Stuyven	%	3.0%	10.4%
19	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	2.9%	12.1%
20	Harold Tejada	%	2.4%	9.3%
21	Sergio Higuita	%	2.8%	10.8%
22	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	2.4%	9.2%
23	Jai Hindley	%	2.1%	8.3%
24	Alex Baudin	%	2.4%	9.4%
25	Michael Storer	%	2.3%	9.7%
26	Brent van Moer	%	2.3%	9.2%
27	Jasper Philipsen	%	2.3%	9.3%
28	Davide Piganzoli	%	1.8%	7.2%
29	Mauro Schmid	%	2.5%	9.2%
30	Ben Healy	%	2.2%	8.8%
31	Egan Bernal	%	2.2%	7.9%
32	Clement Braz Afonso	%	2.0%	7.4%
33	Matheo Vercher	%	1.8%	6.9%
34	Alex Kirsch	%	1.5%	6.1%
35	Sebastian Berwick	%	2.3%	8.3%
36	Richard Carapaz	%	2.0%	7.4%
37	Tim Wellens	%	1.8%	6.9%
38	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	1.8%	6.9%
39	Dylan van Baarle	%	1.3%	4.8%
40	Quinn Simmons	%	1.7%	7.0%
41	Quinten Hermans	%	2.1%	8.6%
42	Alexandre Delettre	%	1.8%	7.2%
43	Romain Gregoire	%	1.5%	5.8%
44	Sean Quinn	%	1.6%	5.6%
45	Nelson Oliveira	%	1.4%	6.2%
46	Alfred Wright	%	1.5%	5.3%
47	Filippo Ganna	%	1.4%	5.1%
48	Olav Kooij	%	1.5%	5.1%
49	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	1.4%	6.0%
50	Ilan van Wilder	%	1.5%	5.9%
51	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	1.4%	5.4%
52	Maxim van Gils	%	1.7%	6.9%
53	Dorian Godon	%	1.6%	6.6%
54	Alex Aranburu	%	1.2%	5.2%
55	Vlad van Mechelen	%	1.1%	4.5%
56	Brandon Mcnulty	%	1.2%	4.5%
57	Jordan Jegat	%	1.1%	4.5%
58	Per Strand Hagenes	%	1.6%	6.7%
59	Matej Mohoric	%	1.3%	6.1%
60	Victor Campenaerts	%	1.2%	4.7%
61	Michel Hessmann	%	1.1%	4.2%
62	Sepp Kuss	%	1.2%	4.1%
63	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.9%	3.5%
64	Marc Hirschi	%	1.5%	5.5%
65	Biniam Girmay	%	0.9%	4.0%
66	Frank van den Broek	%	1.1%	4.3%
67	Robert Stannard	%	0.8%	3.4%
68	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.9%	3.4%
69	Ewen Costiou	%	0.9%	4.1%
70	Toms Skujins	%	1.1%	4.6%
71	George Bennett	%	1.2%	4.4%
72	Javier Romo	%	1.0%	4.3%
73	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	1.1%	4.2%
74	Antonio Tiberi	%	1.2%	4.1%
75	Liam Slock	%	0.9%	3.9%
76	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.9%	3.1%
77	Edward Planckaert	%	1.0%	3.8%
78	Simone Velasco	%	1.0%	4.1%
79	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	1.0%	4.5%
80	Lewis Askey	%	0.9%	3.9%
81	Matthew Riccitello	%	1.0%	3.6%
82	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.9%	3.8%
83	Adam Yates	%	0.9%	3.9%
84	Warren Barguil	%	0.9%	3.5%
85	Luke Plapp	%	0.8%	3.1%
86	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.9%	3.5%
87	Tobias Foss	%	0.8%	3.0%
88	Joris Delbove	%	0.8%	3.5%
89	Jan Tratnik	%	0.9%	3.5%
90	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.9%	3.4%
91	Nils Politt	%	0.9%	3.9%
92	Ben O Connor	%	0.8%	2.9%
93	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	1.0%	3.3%
94	Soren Waerenskjold	%	0.8%	2.9%
95	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	1.0%	4.1%
96	Marco Frigo	%	0.9%	3.3%
97	Florian Lipowitz	%	0.9%	3.3%
98	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.7%	2.8%
99	Einer Rubio	%	0.7%	2.4%
100	Thymen Arensman	%	0.8%	2.5%
101	Krists Neilands	%	0.5%	2.1%
102	Quentin Pacher	%	0.5%	2.0%
103	Mathis le Berre	%	0.5%	1.8%
104	Jakub Otruba	%	0.8%	3.2%
105	Matteo Trentin	%	0.7%	2.8%
106	Rick Pluimers	%	0.6%	2.9%
107	Daan Hoole	%	0.6%	2.4%
108	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.5%	2.0%
109	Yannis Voisard	%	0.4%	1.7%
110	Bruno Armirail	%	0.7%	3.0%
111	Joel Nicolau	%	0.7%	2.9%
112	Nico Denz	%	0.6%	2.6%
113	Stefano Oldani	%	0.6%	2.4%
114	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.6%	2.4%
115	Carlos Verona	%	0.5%	2.1%
116	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.7%	2.7%
117	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.7%	2.5%
118	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.6%	1.9%
119	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.4%	1.8%
120	Damien Howson	%	0.4%	1.4%
121	Guillaume Martin	%	0.6%	2.4%
122	Pavel Bittner	%	0.5%	2.0%
123	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.4%	2.2%
124	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.5%	2.0%
125	Davide Ballerini	%	0.5%	1.9%
126	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.5%	1.9%
127	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.5%	1.9%
128	Lars Craps	%	0.4%	1.9%
129	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.4%	1.7%
130	Chris Harper	%	0.4%	1.4%
131	Julius van den Berg	%	0.5%	2.0%
132	Damiano Caruso	%	0.5%	1.9%
133	Tim Marsman	%	0.5%	1.8%
134	Max Kanter	%	0.6%	1.9%
135	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.4%	1.8%
136	Huub Artz	%	0.5%	1.9%
137	Anthon Charmig	%	0.3%	1.8%
138	Aaron Gate	%	0.4%	1.6%
139	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.4%	1.5%
140	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.4%	1.6%
141	Milan Fretin	%	0.3%	1.4%
142	Niklas Markl	%	0.3%	1.2%
143	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.3%	1.3%
144	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.3%	1.3%
145	Silvan Dillier	%	0.3%	0.8%
146	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.4%	2.6%
147	Derek Gee	%	0.4%	1.7%
148	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.3%	1.4%
149	Piet Allegaert	%	0.4%	1.6%
150	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.4%	1.3%
151	Mike Teunissen	%	0.3%	1.4%
152	Edoardo Affini	%	0.4%	1.3%
153	Anthony Turgis	%	0.3%	1.2%
154	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.3%	1.2%
155	Joshua Tarling	%	0.3%	0.9%
156	Matis Louvel	%	0.3%	1.1%
157	Jake Stewart	%	0.4%	1.2%
158	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.3%	1.0%
159	Ion Izagirre	%	0.4%	1.8%
160	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.2%	1.0%
161	Tim van Dijke	%	0.3%	1.3%
162	Luke Durbridge	%	0.2%	1.0%
163	Hugo Page	%	0.2%	0.9%
164	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.2%	0.8%
165	Cees Bol	%	0.1%	0.7%
166	John Degenkolb	%	0.4%	1.6%
167	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.2%	1.2%
168	Marco Haller	%	0.4%	1.2%
169	Fernando Gaviria	%	0.1%	0.9%
170	Clement Russo	%	0.1%	0.6%
171	Tim Merlier	%	0.2%	0.7%
172	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.1%	0.6%
173	Max Walker	%	0.2%	0.7%
174	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.1%	0.6%
175	Kamil Gradek	%	0.1%	0.5%
176	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.1%	0.6%

Show all 176 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 52.3%	Mads Pedersen 16.5%	Mads Pedersen 20.0%
2	Remco Evenepoel 6.2%	Mathieu van der Poel 6.6% ✓	Mathieu van der Poel 19.1% ✓
3	Isaac del Toro 3.0%	Mathias Vacek 4.4%	Romain Grégoire 11.4%
4	Juan Ayuso Pesquera 2.7%	Quinn Simmons 4.4%	Dorian Godon 9.4%
5	Matteo Jorgenson 1.9%	Michael Valgren Andersen 3.1%	Alex Aranburu 6.7%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 151%; the extra 51% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 10 · Aurillac – Le Lioran

Tuesday 14 July 2026

Winner: Tadej Pogacar

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	95.4%	100.0%
2	Remco Evenepoel	%	24.0%	71.8%
3	Isaac del Toro	%	12.3%	47.6%
4	Jonas Vingegaard	%	12.5%	48.9%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	9.4%	39.6%
6	Matteo Jorgenson	%	5.8%	25.5%
7	Thomas Pidcock	%	6.2%	26.1%
8	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	5.0%	23.3%
9	Egan Bernal	%	4.4%	19.0%
10	Paul Seixas	%	4.2%	19.8%
11	Lenny Martinez	%	4.0%	17.0%
12	Tom Pidcock	%	3.4%	15.9%
13	Tiesj Benoot	%	3.1%	14.3%
14	Richard Carapaz	%	3.1%	14.6%
15	Kevin Vauquelin	%	2.9%	13.0%
16	Jai Hindley	%	2.6%	12.2%
17	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	2.3%	11.1%
18	Davide Piganzoli	%	2.4%	11.8%
19	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	2.6%	12.3%
20	Ilan van Wilder	%	2.3%	10.7%
21	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	2.8%	12.5%
22	Mathieu van der Poel	%	2.4%	11.3%
23	Harold Tejada	%	2.1%	9.3%
24	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	2.2%	11.0%
25	Michael Storer	%	1.9%	8.5%
26	Sergio Higuita	%	2.0%	9.9%
27	Florian Lipowitz	%	1.9%	8.3%
28	Clement Braz Afonso	%	1.8%	7.8%
29	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	1.6%	7.3%
30	Michael Matthews	%	1.8%	8.6%
31	Sepp Kuss	%	1.5%	8.1%
32	Adam Yates	%	1.3%	7.0%
33	Alex Aranburu	%	1.2%	5.9%
34	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	1.7%	7.2%
35	Marc Hirschi	%	1.2%	5.1%
36	Jordan Jegat	%	1.7%	7.6%
37	Thymen Arensman	%	1.3%	6.5%
38	Mathias Vacek	%	1.9%	8.8%
39	Guillaume Martin	%	1.1%	5.3%
40	Romain Gregoire	%	1.0%	4.8%
41	Matthew Riccitello	%	1.1%	5.3%
42	Dylan van Baarle	%	1.1%	4.6%
43	Alex Baudin	%	1.6%	7.0%
44	Ben Healy	%	1.2%	6.1%
45	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.8%	4.5%
46	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.9%	4.4%
47	Tim Wellens	%	1.0%	4.3%
48	Mauro Schmid	%	1.2%	6.0%
49	Ben O Connor	%	1.3%	5.6%
50	Sean Quinn	%	0.9%	4.2%
51	George Bennett	%	0.9%	4.1%
52	Matheo Vercher	%	0.7%	3.8%
53	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.8%	3.4%
54	Damiano Caruso	%	0.7%	3.0%
55	Frank van den Broek	%	0.6%	2.8%
56	Antonio Tiberi	%	1.2%	5.2%
57	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.8%	4.0%
58	Matej Mohoric	%	0.8%	4.1%
59	Quinn Simmons	%	0.7%	3.5%
60	Nelson Oliveira	%	0.7%	3.8%
61	Edward Planckaert	%	0.7%	3.1%
62	Soren Waerenskjold	%	0.5%	2.1%
63	Matteo Trentin	%	0.5%	2.3%
64	Brandon Mcnulty	%	0.7%	3.9%
65	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.9%	4.4%
66	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.8%	4.4%
67	Warren Barguil	%	0.7%	3.5%
68	Einer Rubio	%	0.8%	3.9%
69	Chris Harper	%	0.7%	3.5%
70	Toms Skujins	%	0.7%	3.2%
71	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.6%	2.9%
72	Javier Romo	%	0.5%	3.0%
73	Jasper Stuyven	%	0.7%	3.3%
74	Quinten Hermans	%	0.5%	3.0%
75	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.6%	2.9%
76	Joris Delbove	%	0.5%	2.6%
77	Ion Izagirre	%	0.5%	2.5%
78	Tim Marsman	%	0.5%	2.4%
79	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.5%	2.2%
80	Brent van Moer	%	0.5%	1.9%
81	Quentin Pacher	%	0.4%	1.8%
82	Ewen Costiou	%	0.4%	1.5%
83	Mathis le Berre	%	0.3%	1.4%
84	Romain Gregoire	%	0.6%	3.4%
85	Per Strand Hagenes	%	0.5%	2.8%
86	Marco Frigo	%	0.6%	2.7%
87	Jan Tratnik	%	0.6%	2.6%
88	Simone Velasco	%	0.5%	2.4%
89	Filippo Ganna	%	0.6%	2.5%
90	Luke Plapp	%	0.4%	2.4%
91	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.4%	2.3%
92	Derek Gee	%	0.5%	2.0%
93	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.4%	2.2%
94	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.4%	1.9%
95	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.3%	1.6%
96	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.3%	1.4%
97	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.2%	1.1%
98	Maxim van Gils	%	0.6%	3.2%
99	Michel Hessmann	%	0.6%	3.0%
100	Alex Kirsch	%	0.4%	2.5%
101	Mads Pedersen	%	0.5%	2.5%
102	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.5%	2.4%
103	Lars Craps	%	0.6%	2.6%
104	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.4%	2.3%
105	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.4%	2.4%
106	Carlos Verona	%	0.4%	2.0%
107	Jakub Otruba	%	0.5%	2.5%
108	Robert Stannard	%	0.3%	1.7%
109	Dorian Godon	%	0.3%	1.9%
110	Liam Slock	%	0.3%	1.8%
111	Rick Pluimers	%	0.4%	1.9%
112	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.3%	1.6%
113	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.3%	1.7%
114	Nils Politt	%	0.4%	1.8%
115	Julius van den Berg	%	0.4%	1.6%
116	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.3%	1.6%
117	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.3%	1.5%
118	Bruno Armirail	%	0.3%	1.4%
119	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.3%	1.5%
120	Yannis Voisard	%	0.2%	1.5%
121	Nico Denz	%	0.2%	1.4%
122	Olav Kooij	%	0.3%	1.6%
123	Tobias Foss	%	0.3%	1.6%
124	Huub Artz	%	0.4%	1.5%
125	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.3%	1.5%
126	Davide Ballerini	%	0.3%	1.4%
127	Krists Neilands	%	0.3%	1.3%
128	Stefano Oldani	%	0.2%	1.3%
129	Anthon Charmig	%	0.2%	1.2%
130	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.2%	0.9%
131	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.2%	1.1%
132	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.3%	1.2%
133	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.2%	1.0%
134	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.1%	0.9%
135	Damien Howson	%	0.2%	1.0%
136	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.2%	0.9%
137	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.2%	1.1%
138	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.2%	1.2%
139	Piet Allegaert	%	0.2%	0.8%
140	Pavel Bittner	%	0.2%	1.0%
141	Hugo Page	%	0.2%	0.8%
142	Edoardo Affini	%	0.1%	0.7%
143	Matis Louvel	%	0.1%	0.8%
144	Milan Fretin	%	0.2%	0.8%
145	John Degenkolb	%	0.1%	0.7%
146	Biniam Girmay	%	0.1%	0.6%
147	Jasper Philipsen	%	0.1%	0.6%
148	Fernando Gaviria	%	0.1%	0.5%
149	Joel Nicolau	%	0.3%	1.4%
150	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.3%	1.4%
151	Lewis Askey	%	0.2%	1.1%
152	Alfred Wright	%	0.2%	1.0%
153	Joshua Tarling	%	0.2%	1.1%
154	Mike Teunissen	%	0.2%	1.1%
155	Aaron Gate	%	0.1%	1.0%
156	Max Kanter	%	0.2%	0.9%
157	Daan Hoole	%	0.2%	0.9%
158	Luke Durbridge	%	0.2%	0.8%
159	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.1%	0.8%
160	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.1%	0.7%
161	Marco Haller	%	0.1%	0.7%
162	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.1%	0.7%
163	Anthony Turgis	%	0.1%	0.7%
164	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.1%	0.6%
165	Jake Stewart	%	0.2%	0.8%
166	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.1%	0.7%
167	Clement Russo	%	0.1%	0.6%
168	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.1%	0.7%
169	Silvan Dillier	%	0.1%	0.3%
170	Niklas Markl	%	0.1%	0.5%
171	Tim Merlier	%	0.1%	0.5%
172	Tim van Dijke	%	0.1%	0.5%
173	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.1%	0.5%
174	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.0%	0.5%
175	Max Walker	%	0.1%	0.4%
176	Cees Bol	%	0.1%	0.4%
177	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.1%	0.5%
178	Kamil Gradek	%	0.0%	0.4%

Show all 178 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 80.2% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 42.6% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 21.6% ✓
2	Remco Evenepoel 4.6%	Isaac del Toro 5.3%	Isaac del Toro 8.4%
3	Isaac del Toro 2.0%	Richard Carapaz 4.3%	Jonas Vingegaard 8.0%
4	Jonas Vingegaard 1.9%	Jonas Vingegaard 3.4%	Ben Healy 7.0%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera 1.4%	Tobias Halland Johannessen 3.0%	Tobias Halland Johannessen 6.4%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 156%; the extra 56% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 11 · Vichy – Nevers

Wednesday 15 July 2026

Winner: Soren Waerenskjold

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Jasper Philipsen	%	53.0%	95.0%
2	Tim Merlier	%	32.5%	81.0%
3	Olav Kooij	%	31.8%	79.5%
4	Mads Pedersen	%	19.5%	59.4%
5	Biniam Girmay	%	9.5%	35.4%
6	Pascal Ackermann	%	4.8%	18.5%
7	Phil Bauhaus	%	4.5%	17.8%
8	Max Kanter	%	3.9%	16.3%
9	Fernando Gaviria	%	4.0%	14.9%
10	Dorian Godon	%	2.9%	11.9%
11	Kevin Vauquelin	%	2.5%	9.7%
12	Tim van Dijke	%	2.4%	9.6%
13	Soren Waerenskjold	%	2.5%	11.4%
14	Pavel Bittner	%	2.3%	10.2%
15	Florian Vermeersch	%	2.4%	9.2%
16	Clement Braz Afonso	%	2.0%	7.6%
17	Jasper Stuyven	%	1.8%	7.3%
18	Brandon Mcnulty	%	1.5%	7.3%
19	Alex Kirsch	%	1.8%	7.9%
20	Mathieu van der Poel	%	2.0%	8.0%
21	Brent van Moer	%	1.9%	7.9%
22	Edoardo Affini	%	2.1%	8.8%
23	Einer Rubio	%	1.8%	7.4%
24	Xandro Meurisse	%	1.9%	8.0%
25	Huub Artz	%	1.6%	7.2%
26	Mathias Vacek	%	2.1%	9.1%
27	Per Strand Hagenes	%	1.7%	7.6%
28	Lorenzo Germani	%	1.6%	6.7%
29	Sean Quinn	%	1.7%	6.8%
30	Milan Fretin	%	1.9%	7.2%
31	Michael Matthews	%	1.4%	6.3%
32	Joris Delbove	%	1.4%	6.4%
33	Rick Pluimers	%	1.6%	7.7%
34	Mathis le Berre	%	1.5%	7.9%
35	Anders Skaarseth	%	1.2%	5.4%
36	Niklas Markl	%	1.2%	5.9%
37	Matheo Vercher	%	1.5%	6.0%
38	Davide Ballerini	%	1.5%	6.0%
39	Paul Seixas	%	1.3%	5.7%
40	Isaac del Toro	%	1.1%	5.0%
41	Tobias Foss	%	1.2%	5.2%
42	Mike Teunissen	%	1.2%	5.2%
43	Robert Stannard	%	1.3%	6.0%
44	Nelson Oliveira	%	1.2%	5.1%
45	Nico Denz	%	1.3%	5.6%
46	Anthony Turgis	%	1.1%	4.9%
47	Kasper Asgreen	%	1.5%	5.5%
48	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.9%	3.4%
49	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	1.1%	4.8%
50	Matteo Jorgenson	%	1.2%	4.8%
51	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	1.0%	3.9%
52	Nils Politt	%	0.9%	3.5%
53	Sepp Kuss	%	0.9%	3.4%
54	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	1.1%	4.9%
55	Quinn Simmons	%	1.0%	4.1%
56	Cees Bol	%	1.1%	4.3%
57	Frank van den Broek	%	0.9%	3.6%
58	Alfred Wright	%	1.1%	5.0%
59	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	1.0%	4.8%
60	Tim Wellens	%	1.0%	4.5%
61	Filippo Ganna	%	0.9%	4.0%
62	Julian Alaphilippe	%	1.1%	4.5%
63	Bruno Armirail	%	0.8%	3.9%
64	Tiesj Benoot	%	0.8%	3.3%
65	Liam Slock	%	0.8%	3.2%
66	Mattia Cattaneo	%	1.0%	3.6%
67	Jake Stewart	%	1.0%	4.3%
68	Maxim van Gils	%	0.8%	3.4%
69	Davide Piganzoli	%	0.8%	2.8%
70	Alex Baudin	%	1.0%	3.9%
71	Michel Hessmann	%	0.8%	3.6%
72	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.8%	3.1%
73	Joel Nicolau	%	0.9%	3.5%
74	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.8%	3.1%
75	Edward Planckaert	%	0.8%	3.5%
76	Quinten Hermans	%	0.7%	3.4%
77	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.7%	3.0%
78	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.6%	2.8%
79	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.7%	2.9%
80	Quentin Pacher	%	0.6%	3.0%
81	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.7%	2.9%
82	Clement Russo	%	0.7%	2.9%
83	Piet Allegaert	%	0.8%	2.8%
84	Ewen Costiou	%	0.9%	3.9%
85	Florian Lipowitz	%	0.6%	3.0%
86	Daan Hoole	%	0.7%	3.0%
87	Adam Yates	%	0.6%	2.8%
88	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	0.5%	1.9%
89	Marco Haller	%	0.5%	2.0%
90	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.9%	3.5%
91	Damiano Caruso	%	0.8%	3.2%
92	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.8%	3.2%
93	Thomas Pidcock	%	0.6%	3.4%
94	Toms Skujins	%	0.6%	3.0%
95	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.7%	3.1%
96	Tadej Pogacar	%	0.6%	2.6%
97	Yannis Voisard	%	0.6%	2.5%
98	Marc Hirschi	%	0.7%	2.5%
99	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.6%	2.5%
100	Luke Durbridge	%	0.6%	2.3%
101	Derek Gee	%	0.5%	2.5%
102	Carlos Verona	%	0.4%	2.0%
103	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.5%	2.3%
104	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.6%	2.4%
105	Anthon Charmig	%	0.5%	2.2%
106	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.4%	2.1%
107	Ilan van Wilder	%	0.6%	2.4%
108	Julius van den Berg	%	0.5%	1.7%
109	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.6%	3.1%
110	Romain Gregoire	%	0.6%	2.6%
111	Damien Howson	%	0.5%	2.2%
112	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.5%	2.2%
113	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.4%	2.0%
114	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.6%	2.2%
115	Sergio Higuita	%	0.5%	1.8%
116	Jordan Jegat	%	0.4%	1.4%
117	Jan Tratnik	%	0.4%	1.6%
118	Richard Carapaz	%	0.5%	2.5%
119	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.5%	2.4%
120	Stefano Oldani	%	0.7%	2.6%
121	Hugo Page	%	0.5%	2.3%
122	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.4%	2.4%
123	Thymen Arensman	%	0.5%	2.1%
124	Lars Craps	%	0.5%	2.0%
125	Lewis Askey	%	0.4%	2.2%
126	Michael Storer	%	0.4%	2.1%
127	Egan Bernal	%	0.5%	1.8%
128	Ben Healy	%	0.4%	1.8%
129	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.4%	1.6%
130	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	0.4%	1.6%
131	Guillaume Martin	%	0.4%	1.8%
132	Matej Mohoric	%	0.4%	1.6%
133	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.3%	1.0%
134	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.3%	1.2%
135	Ion Izagirre	%	0.5%	2.0%
136	Jonas Vingegaard	%	0.4%	2.1%
137	John Degenkolb	%	0.4%	2.0%
138	Jai Hindley	%	0.5%	2.0%
139	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	0.3%	1.9%
140	Remco Evenepoel	%	0.4%	1.8%
141	Matis Louvel	%	0.5%	1.8%
142	Aaron Gate	%	0.4%	1.8%
143	Luke Plapp	%	0.3%	1.6%
144	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	0.3%	1.6%
145	Max Walker	%	0.4%	1.6%
146	Mauro Schmid	%	0.4%	1.5%
147	Simone Velasco	%	0.3%	1.4%
148	Alex Aranburu	%	0.4%	1.4%
149	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	0.3%	1.4%
150	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.3%	1.1%
151	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.3%	1.2%
152	Kamil Gradek	%	0.4%	1.6%
153	Javier Romo	%	0.3%	1.4%
154	Matthew Riccitello	%	0.3%	1.3%
155	Ben O Connor	%	0.4%	1.3%
156	Lenny Martinez	%	0.3%	1.3%
157	Joshua Tarling	%	0.2%	1.2%
158	George Bennett	%	0.3%	1.0%
159	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.2%	1.0%
160	Marco Frigo	%	0.2%	0.8%
161	Harold Tejada	%	0.5%	1.7%
162	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.3%	1.6%
163	Chris Harper	%	0.2%	1.3%
164	Jakub Otruba	%	0.3%	1.4%
165	Warren Barguil	%	0.3%	1.2%
166	Krists Neilands	%	0.2%	1.2%
167	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.2%	1.1%
168	Tim Marsman	%	0.2%	1.2%
169	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.2%	1.0%
170	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.2%	1.1%
171	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	0.2%	0.9%
172	Silvan Dillier	%	0.1%	0.7%
173	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.1%	0.8%
174	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.2%	0.8%
175	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.1%	0.4%

Show all 175 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Jasper Philipsen 35.6%	Tim Merlier 42.5%	Tim Merlier 27.1%
2	Tim Merlier 16.3%	Olav Kooij 14.0%	Olav Kooij 23.9%
3	Olav Kooij 16.1%	Biniam Girmay 7.8%	Jasper Philipsen 14.7%
4	Mads Pedersen 7.4%	Jasper Philipsen 7.0%	Biniam Girmay 12.9%
5	Biniam Girmay 3.2%	Max Kanter 4.1%	Søren Wærenskjold 9.8% ✓

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 143%; the extra 43% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 12 · Circuit Nevers Magny-Cours – Chalon-sur-Saône

Thursday 16 July 2026

Winner: Tim Merlier

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Jasper Philipsen	%	52.1%	94.2%
2	Tim Merlier	%	29.8%	76.8%
3	Olav Kooij	%	29.6%	76.4%
4	Mads Pedersen	%	19.6%	58.8%
5	Biniam Girmay	%	10.2%	36.2%
6	Pascal Ackermann	%	4.7%	18.3%
7	Phil Bauhaus	%	4.7%	18.5%
8	Max Kanter	%	4.0%	16.5%
9	Pavel Bittner	%	2.9%	10.8%
10	Fernando Gaviria	%	3.5%	14.2%
11	Tadej Pogacar	%	3.3%	13.0%
12	Dorian Godon	%	2.7%	12.1%
13	Tim van Dijke	%	2.6%	9.5%
14	Soren Waerenskjold	%	3.2%	13.3%
15	Per Strand Hagenes	%	2.3%	9.3%
16	Kevin Vauquelin	%	2.5%	10.2%
17	Mathias Vacek	%	2.2%	9.0%
18	Xandro Meurisse	%	2.1%	8.6%
19	Florian Vermeersch	%	2.2%	8.9%
20	Rick Pluimers	%	1.8%	8.1%
21	Clement Braz Afonso	%	1.8%	7.9%
22	Edoardo Affini	%	2.1%	8.3%
23	Mathieu van der Poel	%	1.8%	8.1%
24	Alex Kirsch	%	1.8%	8.1%
25	Isaac del Toro	%	1.8%	7.8%
26	Jasper Stuyven	%	1.7%	7.5%
27	Michael Matthews	%	1.7%	6.9%
28	Sean Quinn	%	2.0%	7.9%
29	Einer Rubio	%	1.8%	6.6%
30	Paul Seixas	%	1.7%	6.6%
31	Brent van Moer	%	1.7%	7.3%
32	Matheo Vercher	%	1.5%	7.0%
33	Robert Stannard	%	1.6%	6.7%
34	Tobias Foss	%	1.2%	4.8%
35	Matteo Jorgenson	%	1.2%	4.7%
36	Huub Artz	%	1.7%	7.0%
37	Milan Fretin	%	1.7%	6.9%
38	Mathis le Berre	%	1.5%	6.3%
39	Joris Delbove	%	1.3%	5.6%
40	Alex Baudin	%	1.1%	4.2%
41	Quinn Simmons	%	1.1%	4.7%
42	Lorenzo Germani	%	1.5%	6.6%
43	Brandon Mcnulty	%	1.2%	5.6%
44	Nelson Oliveira	%	1.1%	5.0%
45	Anders Skaarseth	%	1.1%	5.1%
46	Kasper Asgreen	%	1.3%	5.0%
47	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	1.2%	4.7%
48	Nico Denz	%	1.4%	6.2%
49	Alfred Wright	%	1.1%	5.1%
50	Davide Ballerini	%	1.3%	5.8%
51	Mike Teunissen	%	1.1%	4.6%
52	Niklas Markl	%	1.1%	4.8%
53	Damiano Caruso	%	0.8%	3.3%
54	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	1.1%	4.7%
55	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.9%	4.2%
56	Ewen Costiou	%	1.0%	4.1%
57	Edward Planckaert	%	0.8%	3.4%
58	Florian Lipowitz	%	0.8%	3.0%
59	Anthony Turgis	%	1.1%	4.7%
60	Jake Stewart	%	1.0%	4.4%
61	Filippo Ganna	%	1.1%	4.0%
62	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	1.1%	4.1%
63	Clement Russo	%	0.7%	2.9%
64	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.8%	2.4%
65	Sepp Kuss	%	0.9%	3.7%
66	Ion Izagirre	%	0.8%	3.0%
67	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.9%	4.5%
68	Michel Hessmann	%	0.8%	3.7%
69	Quinten Hermans	%	0.7%	3.3%
70	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.8%	3.2%
71	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.9%	3.3%
72	Toms Skujins	%	0.8%	3.1%
73	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.6%	3.0%
74	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.7%	2.9%
75	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.8%	2.7%
76	Marc Hirschi	%	0.7%	2.8%
77	Piet Allegaert	%	0.7%	2.4%
78	Bruno Armirail	%	0.8%	3.4%
79	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.8%	4.0%
80	Tiesj Benoot	%	0.9%	3.5%
81	Joel Nicolau	%	0.7%	2.8%
82	Quentin Pacher	%	0.7%	3.0%
83	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.7%	2.8%
84	Nils Politt	%	0.8%	2.7%
85	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.6%	2.3%
86	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.6%	2.2%
87	Maxim van Gils	%	0.7%	3.1%
88	Frank van den Broek	%	0.8%	3.5%
89	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.6%	3.0%
90	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	0.6%	2.6%
91	Ilan van Wilder	%	0.6%	2.1%
92	Lewis Askey	%	0.6%	2.3%
93	Tim Wellens	%	0.7%	2.7%
94	Davide Piganzoli	%	0.6%	2.8%
95	Liam Slock	%	0.7%	2.9%
96	Romain Gregoire	%	0.8%	2.7%
97	Yannis Voisard	%	0.6%	2.6%
98	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.5%	2.1%
99	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.6%	2.4%
100	Anthon Charmig	%	0.7%	2.2%
101	Cees Bol	%	0.9%	3.2%
102	Stefano Oldani	%	0.6%	2.6%
103	Hugo Page	%	0.6%	2.5%
104	Derek Gee	%	0.5%	2.2%
105	Carlos Verona	%	0.5%	2.3%
106	Jai Hindley	%	0.6%	2.0%
107	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.7%	3.0%
108	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.7%	2.7%
109	Richard Carapaz	%	0.5%	2.2%
110	Luke Durbridge	%	0.5%	2.1%
111	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.5%	2.3%
112	Thymen Arensman	%	0.4%	2.0%
113	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.5%	2.1%
114	Egan Bernal	%	0.5%	2.0%
115	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	0.4%	2.0%
116	Damien Howson	%	0.4%	1.6%
117	Thomas Pidcock	%	0.8%	3.3%
118	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.5%	2.8%
119	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.6%	2.5%
120	John Degenkolb	%	0.5%	2.4%
121	Remco Evenepoel	%	0.5%	2.4%
122	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.6%	2.4%
123	Luke Plapp	%	0.6%	2.3%
124	Marco Haller	%	0.5%	2.0%
125	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.5%	1.8%
126	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.4%	1.9%
127	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	0.5%	1.8%
128	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.4%	1.9%
129	Michael Storer	%	0.4%	1.6%
130	Julius van den Berg	%	0.4%	1.7%
131	Aaron Gate	%	0.5%	1.8%
132	Sergio Higuita	%	0.5%	1.7%
133	Guillaume Martin	%	0.4%	1.4%
134	Matis Louvel	%	0.4%	1.6%
135	George Bennett	%	0.4%	1.4%
136	Alex Aranburu	%	0.3%	1.3%
137	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.4%	1.2%
138	Daan Hoole	%	0.5%	2.6%
139	Adam Yates	%	0.5%	2.2%
140	Lars Craps	%	0.5%	2.0%
141	Ben Healy	%	0.4%	1.7%
142	Matej Mohoric	%	0.3%	1.5%
143	Javier Romo	%	0.4%	1.6%
144	Max Walker	%	0.4%	1.5%
145	Ben O Connor	%	0.3%	1.3%
146	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.4%	1.2%
147	Mauro Schmid	%	0.4%	1.4%
148	Jan Tratnik	%	0.4%	1.6%
149	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	0.4%	1.6%
150	Lenny Martinez	%	0.3%	1.5%
151	Jordan Jegat	%	0.2%	1.3%
152	Matthew Riccitello	%	0.4%	1.5%
153	Simone Velasco	%	0.3%	1.2%
154	Joshua Tarling	%	0.3%	1.2%
155	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	0.3%	1.3%
156	Tim Marsman	%	0.3%	1.1%
157	Krists Neilands	%	0.2%	1.1%
158	Jakub Otruba	%	0.2%	1.0%
159	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.3%	1.0%
160	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.2%	0.9%
161	Jonas Vingegaard	%	0.3%	2.1%
162	Kamil Gradek	%	0.4%	1.6%
163	Harold Tejada	%	0.3%	1.6%
164	Warren Barguil	%	0.3%	1.3%
165	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.2%	1.1%
166	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.2%	1.0%
167	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.2%	0.9%
168	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.3%	1.1%
169	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.2%	0.9%
170	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	0.2%	0.9%
171	Marco Frigo	%	0.1%	0.9%
172	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.2%	0.8%
173	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.2%	0.7%
174	Silvan Dillier	%	0.2%	0.9%

Show all 174 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Jasper Philipsen 34.6%	Tim Merlier 34.6% ✓	Tim Merlier 19.4% ✓
2	Tim Merlier 15.7% ✓	Olav Kooij 13.8%	Olav Kooij 18.1%
3	Olav Kooij 15.2%	Jasper Philipsen 12.6%	Jasper Philipsen 12.9%
4	Mads Pedersen 8.1%	Soren Waerenskjold 4.6%	Biniam Girmay 9.9%
5	Biniam Girmay 3.4%	Biniam Girmay 4.1%	Søren Wærenskjold 8.4%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 145%; the extra 45% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 13 · Dole – Belfort

Friday 17 July 2026

Winner: Mauro Schmid

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	46.4%	89.0%
2	Remco Evenepoel	%	13.9%	43.2%
3	Mads Pedersen	%	13.7%	42.5%
4	Thomas Pidcock	%	8.4%	29.3%
5	Jasper Philipsen	%	8.3%	28.1%
6	Mathieu van der Poel	%	6.7%	22.9%
7	Olav Kooij	%	6.1%	21.2%
8	Isaac del Toro	%	6.3%	21.9%
9	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	4.7%	16.6%
10	Paul Seixas	%	4.3%	16.5%
11	Kevin Vauquelin	%	4.0%	14.8%
12	Biniam Girmay	%	3.7%	13.1%
13	Matteo Jorgenson	%	3.9%	13.3%
14	Michael Matthews	%	4.0%	14.2%
15	Soren Waerenskjold	%	2.8%	10.2%
16	Lenny Martinez	%	2.9%	10.3%
17	Jasper Stuyven	%	3.0%	10.7%
18	Dorian Godon	%	2.9%	10.7%
19	Mathias Vacek	%	2.7%	11.0%
20	Tim Merlier	%	3.2%	11.9%
21	Sean Quinn	%	2.5%	8.6%
22	Clement Braz Afonso	%	2.6%	9.0%
23	Tiesj Benoot	%	2.3%	8.7%
24	Per Strand Hagenes	%	2.6%	9.6%
25	Mauro Schmid	%	2.8%	9.5%
26	Romain Gregoire	%	2.4%	7.5%
27	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	2.5%	9.3%
28	Alex Baudin	%	2.3%	9.2%
29	Alex Kirsch	%	2.1%	7.5%
30	Michael Storer	%	2.2%	6.9%
31	Egan Bernal	%	2.1%	7.7%
32	Max Kanter	%	2.0%	7.2%
33	Alexandre Delettre	%	1.9%	7.6%
34	Pavel Bittner	%	1.7%	6.4%
35	Anders Skaarseth	%	1.9%	7.1%
36	Phil Bauhaus	%	2.0%	7.3%
37	Nelson Oliveira	%	1.5%	5.2%
38	Quinn Simmons	%	2.0%	7.2%
39	Sebastian Berwick	%	1.9%	6.8%
40	Davide Piganzoli	%	1.9%	6.7%
41	Xandro Meurisse	%	1.9%	6.8%
42	Marc Hirschi	%	1.8%	6.8%
43	Joris Delbove	%	1.3%	4.7%
44	Ben Healy	%	1.7%	7.0%
45	Brandon Mcnulty	%	1.9%	7.0%
46	Filippo Ganna	%	1.7%	5.6%
47	Tim Wellens	%	1.3%	5.3%
48	Michel Hessmann	%	1.4%	6.1%
49	Quinten Hermans	%	1.5%	5.9%
50	Brent van Moer	%	1.4%	5.7%
51	Nicolas Breuillard	%	1.3%	5.6%
52	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	1.6%	5.9%
53	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	1.6%	5.6%
54	Bruno Armirail	%	1.2%	4.7%
55	Matheo Vercher	%	1.8%	7.1%
56	Alex Aranburu	%	1.2%	4.3%
57	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	1.2%	5.1%
58	Louis Vervaeke	%	1.2%	5.0%
59	Jonas Vingegaard	%	1.3%	4.5%
60	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	1.0%	3.8%
61	Davide Ballerini	%	1.4%	5.0%
62	Liam Slock	%	1.3%	4.5%
63	Ilan van Wilder	%	1.2%	4.1%
64	Tim van Dijke	%	0.7%	2.9%
65	Maxim van Gils	%	1.1%	4.3%
66	Edward Planckaert	%	1.1%	4.1%
67	Adam Yates	%	1.1%	3.5%
68	Robert Stannard	%	1.4%	5.3%
69	Javier Romo	%	1.0%	3.4%
70	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	1.1%	4.2%
71	Tobias Foss	%	1.1%	4.0%
72	Mattia Cattaneo	%	1.0%	4.1%
73	Pascal Ackermann	%	1.0%	3.9%
74	Sepp Kuss	%	0.9%	3.7%
75	Stefano Oldani	%	1.2%	4.2%
76	Frank van den Broek	%	1.0%	3.9%
77	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.9%	3.5%
78	Nico Denz	%	1.0%	3.5%
79	Toms Skujins	%	0.9%	3.5%
80	Ewen Costiou	%	1.1%	4.0%
81	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.9%	3.4%
82	Einer Rubio	%	1.1%	4.1%
83	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.9%	4.0%
84	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	1.0%	3.8%
85	Richard Carapaz	%	1.0%	3.6%
86	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.9%	3.4%
87	Daan Hoole	%	0.9%	3.4%
88	Huub Artz	%	0.9%	3.2%
89	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	1.0%	3.6%
90	Lewis Askey	%	0.8%	3.2%
91	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.8%	2.7%
92	Edoardo Affini	%	0.8%	2.5%
93	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.8%	3.9%
94	Alfred Wright	%	0.9%	3.0%
95	Rick Pluimers	%	1.0%	3.2%
96	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	0.9%	3.0%
97	George Bennett	%	0.8%	2.7%
98	Ion Izagirre	%	0.9%	3.4%
99	Quentin Pacher	%	0.9%	3.0%
100	Joel Nicolau	%	0.7%	2.4%
101	Jan Tratnik	%	0.9%	3.2%
102	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.8%	3.1%
103	Luke Plapp	%	0.8%	2.9%
104	Jai Hindley	%	0.8%	2.8%
105	Sergio Higuita	%	0.7%	3.1%
106	Nils Politt	%	0.6%	2.5%
107	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.6%	2.4%
108	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.7%	2.8%
109	Warren Barguil	%	0.7%	2.5%
110	Milan Fretin	%	0.6%	1.9%
111	Damiano Caruso	%	0.8%	3.2%
112	Anthony Turgis	%	0.8%	3.0%
113	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.8%	2.7%
114	Matthew Riccitello	%	0.8%	3.0%
115	Simone Velasco	%	0.7%	2.8%
116	John Degenkolb	%	0.5%	2.0%
117	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.5%	1.8%
118	Krists Neilands	%	0.5%	1.7%
119	Niklas Markl	%	0.5%	1.8%
120	Florian Lipowitz	%	0.6%	2.3%
121	Mathis le Berre	%	0.5%	2.1%
122	Clement Russo	%	0.5%	1.6%
123	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.7%	2.8%
124	Piet Allegaert	%	0.6%	2.3%
125	Harold Tejada	%	0.5%	2.0%
126	Jakub Otruba	%	0.5%	2.0%
127	Anthon Charmig	%	0.5%	1.8%
128	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.5%	1.6%
129	Matej Mohoric	%	0.6%	2.8%
130	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.6%	2.2%
131	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.5%	2.3%
132	Guillaume Martin	%	0.5%	1.9%
133	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.5%	1.8%
134	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.5%	1.8%
135	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.6%	2.0%
136	Aaron Gate	%	0.5%	1.6%
137	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.5%	1.6%
138	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.5%	2.4%
139	Carlos Verona	%	0.7%	2.2%
140	Julius van den Berg	%	0.4%	1.7%
141	Marco Haller	%	0.5%	1.7%
142	Mike Teunissen	%	0.4%	1.6%
143	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.4%	1.8%
144	Tim Marsman	%	0.5%	1.8%
145	Jordan Jegat	%	0.6%	1.6%
146	Derek Gee	%	0.5%	1.9%
147	Marco Frigo	%	0.4%	1.6%
148	Ben O Connor	%	0.4%	1.5%
149	Jake Stewart	%	0.3%	1.4%
150	Frits Biesterbos	%	0.3%	1.0%
151	Ramses Debruyne	%	0.5%	1.6%
152	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.5%	1.7%
153	Joshua Tarling	%	0.3%	1.2%
154	Max Walker	%	0.3%	1.1%
155	Jenno Berckmoes	%	0.5%	2.1%
156	Yannis Voisard	%	0.4%	1.9%
157	Thymen Arensman	%	0.4%	1.8%
158	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.4%	1.6%
159	Luke Durbridge	%	0.3%	1.3%
160	Lars Craps	%	0.4%	1.5%
161	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.3%	1.4%
162	Damien Howson	%	0.3%	1.1%
163	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.3%	1.3%
164	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.2%	0.9%
165	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.2%	0.9%
166	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.2%	1.1%
167	Cees Bol	%	0.3%	1.0%
168	Hugo Page	%	0.3%	1.1%
169	Kamil Gradek	%	0.2%	0.8%
170	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.2%	0.8%
171	Silvan Dillier	%	0.2%	1.0%
172	Matis Louvel	%	0.2%	0.9%
173	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.2%	0.7%

Show all 173 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 37.2%	Richard Carapaz 7.7%	Richard Carapaz 21.6%
2	Remco Evenepoel 6.3%	Tadej Pogacar 5.5%	Tom Pidcock 17.2%
3	Mads Pedersen 6.3%	Mathieu van der Poel 4.4%	Tadej Pogacar 14.0%
4	Thomas Pidcock 3.4%	Brandon Mcnulty 3.9%	Tobias Halland Johannessen 7.5%
5	Jasper Philipsen 2.9%	Mads Pedersen 3.1%	Alex Baudin 6.7%

Stage 14 · Mulhouse – Le Markstein

Saturday 18 July 2026

Winner: Tadej Pogacar

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	93.5%	100.0%
2	Jonas Vingegaard	%	31.5%	84.1%
3	Isaac del Toro	%	16.5%	59.1%
4	Remco Evenepoel	%	12.4%	49.2%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	8.4%	37.0%
6	Richard Carapaz	%	6.2%	26.1%
7	Florian Lipowitz	%	5.6%	24.8%
8	Egan Bernal	%	4.7%	20.1%
9	Paul Seixas	%	4.5%	20.7%
10	Thomas Pidcock	%	4.1%	19.4%
11	Matteo Jorgenson	%	4.5%	21.6%
12	Jai Hindley	%	3.8%	17.1%
13	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	3.9%	18.7%
14	Davide Piganzoli	%	3.2%	15.2%
15	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	3.5%	18.2%
16	Adam Yates	%	2.2%	11.8%
17	Tiesj Benoot	%	3.2%	16.0%
18	Lenny Martinez	%	3.1%	15.2%
19	Sepp Kuss	%	2.6%	12.0%
20	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	2.8%	12.8%
21	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	2.7%	13.7%
22	Clement Braz Afonso	%	2.3%	10.8%
23	Kevin Vauquelin	%	2.4%	12.6%
24	Jordan Jegat	%	1.9%	9.4%
25	Ilan van Wilder	%	2.3%	11.1%
26	Ben O Connor	%	1.8%	9.2%
27	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	1.6%	8.5%
28	Thymen Arensman	%	1.6%	8.5%
29	Marc Hirschi	%	1.1%	5.1%
30	Sergio Higuita	%	1.6%	8.4%
31	Ramses Debruyne	%	1.4%	7.6%
32	Derek Gee	%	1.7%	7.3%
33	Michael Storer	%	1.6%	7.9%
34	Matthew Riccitello	%	1.4%	7.0%
35	Alex Baudin	%	1.2%	5.8%
36	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	1.4%	8.0%
37	Guillaume Martin	%	1.6%	7.0%
38	Antonio Tiberi	%	1.5%	6.9%
39	George Bennett	%	0.9%	4.5%
40	Ben Healy	%	1.1%	5.7%
41	Michael Matthews	%	0.9%	4.6%
42	Harold Tejada	%	1.2%	6.0%
43	Einer Rubio	%	0.7%	3.5%
44	Nicolas Breuillard	%	1.0%	5.3%
45	Romain Gregoire	%	1.1%	4.5%
46	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	1.2%	6.6%
47	Alex Aranburu	%	0.9%	5.1%
48	Warren Barguil	%	0.9%	4.0%
49	Tim Wellens	%	0.8%	3.9%
50	Jan Tratnik	%	0.5%	2.5%
51	Brent van Moer	%	0.7%	3.2%
52	Lars Craps	%	0.6%	2.5%
53	Frank van den Broek	%	0.6%	2.2%
54	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.5%	2.4%
55	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.4%	1.5%
56	Brandon Mcnulty	%	1.0%	4.3%
57	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.6%	3.6%
58	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.8%	4.2%
59	Matej Mohoric	%	0.6%	2.9%
60	Luke Plapp	%	0.6%	2.8%
61	Damiano Caruso	%	0.6%	3.0%
62	Carlos Verona	%	0.5%	2.9%
63	Mathias Vacek	%	0.6%	2.7%
64	Nelson Oliveira	%	0.5%	2.8%
65	Tim Marsman	%	0.6%	2.8%
66	Matheo Vercher	%	0.6%	2.7%
67	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.5%	2.7%
68	Marco Frigo	%	0.6%	2.6%
69	Jasper Stuyven	%	0.5%	2.6%
70	Sean Quinn	%	0.5%	2.3%
71	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.4%	1.9%
72	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.4%	2.0%
73	Soren Waerenskjold	%	0.4%	1.4%
74	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.2%	0.8%
75	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.9%	3.8%
76	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.7%	3.6%
77	Mauro Schmid	%	0.5%	2.9%
78	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.4%	2.9%
79	Per Strand Hagenes	%	0.6%	3.1%
80	Joel Nicolau	%	0.5%	2.7%
81	Javier Romo	%	0.5%	2.5%
82	Toms Skujins	%	0.6%	2.7%
83	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.4%	2.6%
84	Alex Kirsch	%	0.4%	2.1%
85	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.4%	2.1%
86	Jakub Otruba	%	0.4%	1.8%
87	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.3%	1.7%
88	Damien Howson	%	0.3%	1.6%
89	Quentin Pacher	%	0.3%	1.2%
90	Huub Artz	%	0.2%	1.5%
91	Davide Ballerini	%	0.3%	1.1%
92	Mads Pedersen	%	0.3%	1.2%
93	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.2%	0.9%
94	Milan Fretin	%	0.2%	0.7%
95	Cees Bol	%	0.1%	0.5%
96	Yannis Voisard	%	0.6%	3.3%
97	Joris Delbove	%	0.5%	2.8%
98	Ewen Costiou	%	0.5%	2.4%
99	Simone Velasco	%	0.4%	2.2%
100	Maxim van Gils	%	0.4%	2.2%
101	Edward Planckaert	%	0.4%	2.1%
102	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.4%	1.8%
103	Bruno Armirail	%	0.3%	1.6%
104	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.4%	1.9%
105	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.3%	1.6%
106	Nils Politt	%	0.3%	1.5%
107	Quinn Simmons	%	0.4%	1.7%
108	Filippo Ganna	%	0.3%	1.4%
109	Michel Hessmann	%	0.3%	1.5%
110	Nico Denz	%	0.2%	1.3%
111	Joshua Tarling	%	0.3%	1.6%
112	Dorian Godon	%	0.2%	1.2%
113	Alfred Wright	%	0.2%	1.5%
114	Robert Stannard	%	0.3%	1.2%
115	Julius van den Berg	%	0.2%	1.4%
116	Quinten Hermans	%	0.3%	1.3%
117	Ion Izagirre	%	0.2%	1.2%
118	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.2%	1.2%
119	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.3%	1.4%
120	Mathieu van der Poel	%	0.2%	1.2%
121	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.2%	1.0%
122	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.2%	1.0%
123	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.3%	1.1%
124	Piet Allegaert	%	0.2%	1.0%
125	Edoardo Affini	%	0.2%	0.8%
126	Daan Hoole	%	0.2%	0.9%
127	Max Kanter	%	0.2%	0.7%
128	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.2%	0.8%
129	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.2%	0.6%
130	Lewis Askey	%	0.2%	0.5%
131	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.3%	1.8%
132	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.3%	1.5%
133	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.2%	1.5%
134	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.2%	1.3%
135	Olav Kooij	%	0.2%	1.2%
136	Mathis le Berre	%	0.1%	1.1%
137	Tobias Foss	%	0.2%	1.4%
138	Rick Pluimers	%	0.2%	0.9%
139	Jake Stewart	%	0.3%	1.3%
140	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.2%	1.1%
141	Krists Neilands	%	0.2%	1.1%
142	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.2%	1.1%
143	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.2%	0.9%
144	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.1%	1.0%
145	Liam Slock	%	0.2%	1.0%
146	Anthon Charmig	%	0.1%	0.9%
147	Luke Durbridge	%	0.2%	0.8%
148	Aaron Gate	%	0.1%	0.8%
149	Matis Louvel	%	0.2%	0.8%
150	Marco Haller	%	0.2%	0.7%
151	Niklas Markl	%	0.1%	0.7%
152	Stefano Oldani	%	0.1%	0.7%
153	Clement Russo	%	0.1%	0.6%
154	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.1%	0.5%
155	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.1%	0.7%
156	Anthony Turgis	%	0.1%	0.7%
157	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.1%	0.6%
158	John Degenkolb	%	0.1%	0.7%
159	Pavel Bittner	%	0.1%	0.6%
160	Tim van Dijke	%	0.2%	0.6%
161	Hugo Page	%	0.1%	0.5%
162	Mike Teunissen	%	0.1%	0.6%
163	Biniam Girmay	%	0.1%	0.5%
164	Max Walker	%	0.1%	0.5%
165	Tim Merlier	%	0.1%	0.5%
166	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.0%	0.3%
167	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.1%	0.4%
168	Jasper Philipsen	%	0.1%	0.5%
169	Kamil Gradek	%	0.1%	0.3%
170	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.0%	0.2%
171	Silvan Dillier	%	0.1%	0.2%

Show all 171 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 74.9% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 40.1% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 18.5% ✓
2	Jonas Vingegaard 7.6%	Richard Carapaz 14.2%	Jonas Vingegaard 11.3%
3	Isaac del Toro 3.1%	Jonas Vingegaard 3.8%	Richard Carapaz 10.7%
4	Remco Evenepoel 2.1%	Isaac del Toro 3.8%	Isaac del Toro 8.7%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera 1.1%	Tobias Halland Johannessen 3.8%	Tobias Halland Johannessen 7.2%

Stage 15 · Champagnole – Plateau de Solaison

Sunday 19 July 2026

Winner: Remco Evenepoel

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	99.5%	100.0%
2	Jonas Vingegaard	%	34.4%	88.5%
3	Remco Evenepoel	%	20.5%	70.3%
4	Isaac del Toro	%	16.1%	61.3%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	10.1%	44.7%
6	Paul Seixas	%	4.0%	21.4%
7	Egan Bernal	%	4.3%	21.5%
8	Richard Carapaz	%	5.0%	24.6%
9	Jai Hindley	%	4.3%	21.4%
10	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	4.4%	22.5%
11	Florian Lipowitz	%	4.6%	21.7%
12	Matteo Jorgenson	%	3.9%	20.6%
13	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	2.9%	14.2%
14	Thomas Pidcock	%	4.0%	19.6%
15	Tiesj Benoot	%	2.6%	14.0%
16	Ilan van Wilder	%	2.9%	13.9%
17	Lenny Martinez	%	3.6%	19.1%
18	Sepp Kuss	%	2.6%	13.6%
19	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	2.8%	14.7%
20	Jordan Jegat	%	1.5%	8.7%
21	Davide Piganzoli	%	2.3%	12.2%
22	Sergio Higuita	%	1.5%	8.3%
23	Derek Gee	%	1.1%	6.8%
24	Kevin Vauquelin	%	2.2%	12.8%
25	Ben O Connor	%	1.9%	10.3%
26	Michael Storer	%	1.8%	9.3%
27	Thymen Arensman	%	1.7%	8.6%
28	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	2.1%	12.0%
29	Clement Braz Afonso	%	1.9%	9.8%
30	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	1.6%	8.9%
31	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	1.3%	7.8%
32	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	1.4%	7.2%
33	Ben Healy	%	1.2%	6.5%
34	Guillaume Martin	%	1.3%	6.5%
35	Michael Matthews	%	0.7%	3.9%
36	Adam Yates	%	1.9%	11.2%
37	Matthew Riccitello	%	1.2%	6.7%
38	Antonio Tiberi	%	1.2%	6.4%
39	Alex Baudin	%	0.9%	5.3%
40	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.8%	4.4%
41	Javier Romo	%	0.5%	2.9%
42	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.6%	2.9%
43	Maxim van Gils	%	0.4%	2.5%
44	Joel Nicolau	%	0.5%	2.5%
45	Ion Izagirre	%	0.3%	1.6%
46	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.9%	5.1%
47	Marc Hirschi	%	0.8%	5.1%
48	Harold Tejada	%	0.8%	4.7%
49	Alex Aranburu	%	0.8%	3.9%
50	Warren Barguil	%	0.6%	3.6%
51	Brandon Mcnulty	%	0.7%	3.7%
52	Romain Gregoire	%	0.7%	3.7%
53	George Bennett	%	0.6%	3.5%
54	Einer Rubio	%	0.5%	3.6%
55	Damiano Caruso	%	0.7%	3.5%
56	Tim Marsman	%	0.8%	3.5%
57	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.6%	3.2%
58	Luke Plapp	%	0.6%	3.1%
59	Tim Wellens	%	0.5%	2.6%
60	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.5%	2.5%
61	Matheo Vercher	%	0.4%	2.6%
62	Carlos Verona	%	0.6%	2.6%
63	Marco Frigo	%	0.5%	2.7%
64	Brent van Moer	%	0.4%	2.4%
65	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.4%	2.3%
66	Edward Planckaert	%	0.5%	2.2%
67	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.4%	2.3%
68	Per Strand Hagenes	%	0.6%	2.2%
69	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.3%	2.1%
70	Sean Quinn	%	0.3%	1.7%
71	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.4%	2.1%
72	Frank van den Broek	%	0.3%	1.9%
73	Simone Velasco	%	0.3%	1.7%
74	Joris Delbove	%	0.3%	1.5%
75	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.3%	1.8%
76	Ewen Costiou	%	0.4%	1.9%
77	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.2%	1.6%
78	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.2%	1.7%
79	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.4%	1.8%
80	Quentin Pacher	%	0.3%	1.5%
81	Quinten Hermans	%	0.4%	1.6%
82	Filippo Ganna	%	0.2%	1.3%
83	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.2%	1.1%
84	Huub Artz	%	0.2%	1.2%
85	Soren Waerenskjold	%	0.1%	0.9%
86	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.2%	1.1%
87	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.2%	1.0%
88	Mathis le Berre	%	0.2%	0.9%
89	Daan Hoole	%	0.1%	0.6%
90	Mauro Schmid	%	0.5%	2.9%
91	Matej Mohoric	%	0.5%	2.5%
92	Yannis Voisard	%	0.4%	2.8%
93	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.5%	2.5%
94	Mathias Vacek	%	0.4%	2.3%
95	Toms Skujins	%	0.4%	2.3%
96	Jan Tratnik	%	0.4%	2.0%
97	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.3%	2.0%
98	Lars Craps	%	0.2%	1.8%
99	Nelson Oliveira	%	0.3%	1.9%
100	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.3%	2.0%
101	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.2%	1.7%
102	Jakub Otruba	%	0.3%	1.5%
103	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.2%	1.4%
104	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.2%	1.5%
105	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.2%	1.7%
106	Quinn Simmons	%	0.2%	1.5%
107	Bruno Armirail	%	0.2%	1.3%
108	Jasper Stuyven	%	0.3%	1.2%
109	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.2%	1.3%
110	Tobias Foss	%	0.3%	1.6%
111	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.2%	1.3%
112	Michel Hessmann	%	0.3%	1.5%
113	Alex Kirsch	%	0.2%	1.4%
114	Robert Stannard	%	0.2%	1.1%
115	Joshua Tarling	%	0.2%	1.0%
116	Jake Stewart	%	0.2%	1.3%
117	Damien Howson	%	0.1%	1.2%
118	Nils Politt	%	0.2%	1.1%
119	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.2%	1.2%
120	Davide Ballerini	%	0.2%	1.2%
121	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.2%	1.2%
122	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.1%	1.0%
123	Tom van Asbroeck	%	0.1%	1.0%
124	Julius van den Berg	%	0.2%	1.0%
125	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.2%	0.8%
126	Rick Pluimers	%	0.1%	0.9%
127	Alfred Wright	%	0.2%	0.8%
128	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.1%	0.7%
129	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.1%	1.0%
130	Liam Slock	%	0.1%	0.7%
131	Dorian Godon	%	0.1%	0.8%
132	Olav Kooij	%	0.2%	0.9%
133	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.2%	0.8%
134	Piet Allegaert	%	0.1%	0.8%
135	Nico Denz	%	0.1%	0.7%
136	Krists Neilands	%	0.1%	0.8%
137	Aaron Gate	%	0.1%	0.7%
138	Edoardo Affini	%	0.1%	0.7%
139	Max Kanter	%	0.1%	0.6%
140	Luke Durbridge	%	0.2%	0.6%
141	Matis Louvel	%	0.1%	0.7%
142	Stefano Oldani	%	0.1%	0.6%
143	Clement Russo	%	0.1%	0.6%
144	Milan Fretin	%	0.2%	0.7%
145	Mathieu van der Poel	%	0.1%	0.5%
146	Pavel Bittner	%	0.1%	0.4%
147	Mads Pedersen	%	0.1%	0.5%
148	Marco Haller	%	0.1%	0.5%
149	Tim Merlier	%	0.2%	0.6%
150	Anthony Turgis	%	0.1%	0.6%
151	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.1%	0.5%
152	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.1%	0.5%
153	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.1%	0.5%
154	Niklas Markl	%	0.1%	0.4%
155	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.1%	0.4%
156	Mike Teunissen	%	0.0%	0.4%
157	Max Walker	%	0.1%	0.4%
158	John Degenkolb	%	0.1%	0.4%
159	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.1%	0.3%
160	Hugo Page	%	0.1%	0.4%
161	Silvan Dillier	%	0.0%	0.4%
162	Tim van Dijke	%	0.1%	0.4%
163	Biniam Girmay	%	0.1%	0.4%
164	Lewis Askey	%	0.1%	0.4%
165	Cees Bol	%	0.1%	0.3%
166	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.1%	0.3%
167	Kamil Gradek	%	0.1%	0.3%
168	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.0%	0.2%
169	Jasper Philipsen	%	0.1%	0.2%

Show all 169 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 90.3%	Tadej Pogacar 40.0%	Tadej Pogacar 16.8%
2	Jonas Vingegaard 3.2%	Richard Carapaz 11.6%	Jonas Vingegaard 11.9%
3	Remco Evenepoel 1.5% ✓	Isaac del Toro 5.3%	Richard Carapaz 10.0%
4	Isaac del Toro 1.0%	Tobias Halland Johannessen 4.3%	Isaac del Toro 9.7%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera 0.7%	Jonas Vingegaard 3.4%	Tobias Halland Johannessen 8.1%

Stage 16 (ITT) · Évian-les-Bains – Thonon-les-Bains

Tuesday 21 July 2026

Winner: Remco Evenepoel

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	99.2%	100.0%
2	Remco Evenepoel	%	96.5%	100.0%
3	Filippo Ganna	%	69.9%	100.0%
4	Matteo Jorgenson	%	6.9%	84.4%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	6.1%	79.4%
6	Ilan van Wilder	%	1.6%	38.0%
7	Daan Hoole	%	1.6%	33.9%
8	Thymen Arensman	%	1.3%	27.0%
9	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.7%	17.8%
10	Brandon Mcnulty	%	0.9%	20.9%
11	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	0.9%	18.0%
12	Mauro Schmid	%	0.7%	17.5%
13	Paul Seixas	%	0.7%	17.8%
14	Edoardo Affini	%	0.7%	14.9%
15	Joshua Tarling	%	0.6%	14.8%
16	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.5%	12.7%
17	Tobias Foss	%	0.4%	9.4%
18	Romain Gregoire	%	0.3%	6.7%
19	Florian Lipowitz	%	0.6%	17.6%
20	Lenny Martinez	%	0.4%	11.5%
21	Isaac del Toro	%	0.3%	10.1%
22	Mathieu van der Poel	%	0.3%	9.7%
23	Luke Plapp	%	0.2%	8.3%
24	Thomas Pidcock	%	0.2%	7.6%
25	Alfred Wright	%	0.3%	7.3%
26	Nelson Oliveira	%	0.2%	7.0%
27	Damiano Caruso	%	0.2%	7.2%
28	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.3%	6.8%
29	Michael Matthews	%	0.3%	6.4%
30	Harold Tejada	%	0.3%	5.8%
31	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.2%	5.4%
32	Bruno Armirail	%	0.2%	4.8%
33	Kevin Vauquelin	%	0.1%	4.5%
34	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.2%	4.5%
35	Soren Waerenskjold	%	0.2%	4.6%
36	Ben Healy	%	0.2%	4.4%
37	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.1%	4.1%
38	Adam Yates	%	0.1%	3.9%
39	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.1%	3.4%
40	Matej Mohoric	%	0.1%	3.3%
41	Tim Wellens	%	0.1%	3.5%
42	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.1%	3.4%
43	Mathias Vacek	%	0.1%	3.3%
44	Sepp Kuss	%	0.1%	3.3%
45	Clement Braz Afonso	%	0.1%	2.7%
46	Julius van den Berg	%	0.1%	2.8%
47	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	0.2%	2.7%
48	Richard Carapaz	%	0.1%	2.6%
49	Matthew Riccitello	%	0.1%	2.5%
50	Liam Slock	%	0.1%	2.6%
51	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.1%	2.7%
52	Egan Bernal	%	0.1%	2.7%
53	Jai Hindley	%	0.1%	2.5%
54	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.1%	2.7%
55	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.1%	2.2%
56	Derek Gee	%	0.1%	2.1%
57	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.1%	2.2%
58	Luke Durbridge	%	0.1%	2.2%
59	Ben O Connor	%	0.1%	2.1%
60	Tiesj Benoot	%	0.1%	2.2%
61	Michael Storer	%	0.0%	2.0%
62	Marco Frigo	%	0.1%	1.9%
63	George Bennett	%	0.0%	2.0%
64	Yannis Voisard	%	0.0%	2.0%
65	Marc Hirschi	%	0.1%	1.8%
66	Simone Velasco	%	0.1%	1.6%
67	Ion Izagirre	%	0.1%	1.6%
68	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.1%	1.8%
69	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.0%	1.5%
70	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.0%	1.6%
71	Joris Delbove	%	0.0%	1.5%
72	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.0%	1.6%
73	Sean Quinn	%	0.0%	1.5%
74	Alex Kirsch	%	0.1%	1.6%
75	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.1%	1.6%
76	Jan Tratnik	%	0.1%	1.5%
77	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.0%	1.6%
78	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.0%	1.3%
79	Frank van den Broek	%	0.1%	1.2%
80	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	0.1%	1.5%
81	Quinn Simmons	%	0.0%	1.3%
82	Davide Piganzoli	%	0.1%	1.2%
83	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.0%	1.4%
84	Javier Romo	%	0.1%	1.1%
85	Tim Marsman	%	0.1%	1.4%
86	Brent van Moer	%	0.1%	1.2%
87	Krists Neilands	%	0.1%	1.1%
88	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.1%	1.3%
89	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.1%	1.3%
90	Ewen Costiou	%	0.1%	1.3%
91	Huub Artz	%	0.1%	1.2%
92	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.0%	1.0%
93	Jakub Otruba	%	0.0%	1.0%
94	Lars Craps	%	0.0%	1.0%
95	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.0%	1.0%
96	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.0%	0.9%
97	Edward Planckaert	%	0.0%	0.8%
98	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.0%	0.9%
99	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.0%	1.0%
100	Quentin Pacher	%	0.0%	1.1%
101	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	0.0%	1.1%
102	Per Strand Hagenes	%	0.1%	0.8%
103	John Degenkolb	%	0.0%	0.8%
104	Maxim van Gils	%	0.1%	0.9%
105	Milan Fretin	%	0.1%	0.9%
106	Sergio Higuita	%	0.0%	0.8%
107	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	0.1%	0.9%
108	Mike Teunissen	%	0.0%	0.8%
109	Stefano Oldani	%	0.0%	0.8%
110	Mads Pedersen	%	0.1%	0.9%
111	Nils Politt	%	0.0%	0.7%
112	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	0.1%	0.8%
113	Aaron Gate	%	0.0%	0.9%
114	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.0%	0.9%
115	Warren Barguil	%	0.0%	0.7%
116	Alex Aranburu	%	0.0%	0.8%
117	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.0%	0.6%
118	Matheo Vercher	%	0.0%	0.6%
119	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.0%	0.6%
120	Einer Rubio	%	0.0%	0.5%
121	Michel Hessmann	%	0.1%	0.5%
122	Jordan Jegat	%	0.0%	0.6%
123	Dorian Godon	%	0.0%	0.5%
124	Anthony Turgis	%	0.0%	0.5%
125	Lewis Askey	%	0.0%	0.5%
126	Jasper Stuyven	%	0.0%	0.5%
127	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.0%	0.5%
128	Max Walker	%	0.0%	0.4%
129	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.0%	0.5%
130	Quinten Hermans	%	0.0%	0.5%
131	Alex Baudin	%	0.0%	0.5%
132	Tim van Dijke	%	0.0%	0.2%
133	Kamil Gradek	%	0.0%	0.4%
134	Clement Russo	%	0.0%	0.4%
135	Rick Pluimers	%	0.0%	0.5%
136	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.0%	0.4%
137	Damien Howson	%	0.0%	0.3%
138	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.0%	0.3%
139	Toms Skujins	%	0.0%	0.2%
140	Marco Haller	%	0.0%	0.2%
141	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.0%	0.4%
142	Davide Ballerini	%	0.0%	0.3%
143	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.0%	0.4%
144	Matis Louvel	%	0.0%	0.3%
145	Niklas Markl	%	0.0%	0.3%
146	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.0%	0.3%
147	Jake Stewart	%	0.0%	0.3%
148	Olav Kooij	%	0.0%	0.2%
149	Max Kanter	%	0.0%	0.2%
150	Guillaume Martin	%	0.0%	0.2%
151	Pavel Bittner	%	0.0%	0.3%
152	Robert Stannard	%	0.0%	0.4%
153	Joel Nicolau	%	0.0%	0.2%
154	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.0%	0.3%
155	Piet Allegaert	%	0.0%	0.1%
156	Nico Denz	%	0.0%	0.2%
157	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.0%	0.2%
158	Carlos Verona	%	0.0%	0.2%
159	Cees Bol	%	0.0%	0.2%
160	Biniam Girmay	%	0.0%	0.1%
161	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.0%	0.2%
162	Silvan Dillier	%	0.0%	0.1%
163	Mathis le Berre	%	0.0%	0.1%
164	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.0%	0.1%
165	Hugo Page	%	0.0%	0.2%
166	Jasper Philipsen	%	0.0%	0.2%

Show all 166 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 56.1%	Remco Evenepoel 55.2% ✓	Remco Evenepoel 60.9% ✓
2	Remco Evenepoel 36.5% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 26.5%	Tadej Pogacar 29.1%
3	Filippo Ganna 6.7%	Filippo Ganna 6.1%	Filippo Ganna 2.5%
4	Matteo Jorgenson 0.2%	Joshua Tarling 1.6%	Juan Ayuso 1.5%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera 0.2%	Paul Seixas 1.0%	Isaac del Toro 1.4%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 126%; the extra 26% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 17 · Chambéry – Voiron

Wednesday 22 July 2026

Winner: Jasper Philipsen

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Jasper Philipsen	%	25.5%	64.1%
2	Mads Pedersen	%	15.0%	44.4%
3	Tadej Pogacar	%	14.1%	41.5%
4	Olav Kooij	%	12.8%	38.9%
5	Biniam Girmay	%	7.0%	22.6%
6	Mathieu van der Poel	%	5.2%	18.1%
7	Michael Matthews	%	5.0%	17.0%
8	Jasper Stuyven	%	4.9%	16.4%
9	Paul Seixas	%	4.1%	14.3%
10	Isaac del Toro	%	4.6%	15.5%
11	Dorian Godon	%	4.3%	14.7%
12	Brent van Moer	%	3.6%	11.9%
13	Tim van Dijke	%	3.7%	12.4%
14	Phil Bauhaus	%	3.2%	11.1%
15	Mathias Vacek	%	3.4%	10.9%
16	Thomas Pidcock	%	3.2%	11.6%
17	Maxim van Gils	%	2.6%	7.9%
18	Pavel Bittner	%	2.8%	10.0%
19	Kevin Vauquelin	%	3.0%	11.0%
20	Per Strand Hagenes	%	3.0%	10.1%
21	Max Kanter	%	2.5%	9.2%
22	Clement Braz Afonso	%	2.8%	9.0%
23	Ben Healy	%	2.6%	8.8%
24	Soren Waerenskjold	%	2.2%	7.6%
25	Alexandre Delettre	%	2.3%	8.6%
26	Brandon Mcnulty	%	2.3%	8.0%
27	Tim Wellens	%	2.4%	8.0%
28	Bruno Armirail	%	2.5%	8.7%
29	Louis Vervaeke	%	2.4%	7.8%
30	Tobias Foss	%	2.0%	6.6%
31	Xandro Meurisse	%	2.2%	8.6%
32	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	2.6%	9.0%
33	Quinn Simmons	%	2.9%	9.6%
34	Mauro Schmid	%	2.6%	9.7%
35	Alex Kirsch	%	2.2%	7.4%
36	Remco Evenepoel	%	2.5%	8.3%
37	Nelson Oliveira	%	2.2%	7.7%
38	Davide Ballerini	%	2.0%	7.9%
39	Matteo Jorgenson	%	2.0%	5.8%
40	Pascal Ackermann	%	2.5%	8.7%
41	Ewen Costiou	%	2.3%	8.3%
42	Matheo Vercher	%	2.0%	7.4%
43	Michel Hessmann	%	2.0%	6.4%
44	Julian Alaphilippe	%	1.7%	5.8%
45	Alfred Wright	%	1.9%	6.9%
46	Quinten Hermans	%	1.8%	6.2%
47	Sean Quinn	%	2.0%	7.8%
48	Mattia Cattaneo	%	1.8%	5.8%
49	Romain Gregoire	%	1.7%	5.9%
50	Alex Baudin	%	2.3%	8.2%
51	Joel Nicolau	%	1.7%	6.1%
52	Tiesj Benoot	%	1.7%	6.0%
53	Stefano Oldani	%	1.6%	5.3%
54	Florian Vermeersch	%	1.8%	6.0%
55	Liam Slock	%	2.0%	7.5%
56	Anders Skaarseth	%	2.0%	6.6%
57	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	1.9%	5.8%
58	Robert Stannard	%	1.8%	6.3%
59	Filippo Ganna	%	1.7%	6.4%
60	Anthony Turgis	%	1.6%	5.0%
61	Edoardo Affini	%	1.6%	4.9%
62	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	1.6%	5.7%
63	Daan Hoole	%	1.5%	5.7%
64	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	1.6%	5.8%
65	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	1.3%	5.2%
66	Lewis Askey	%	1.4%	4.7%
67	Milan Fretin	%	1.4%	5.3%
68	Edward Planckaert	%	1.3%	4.4%
69	Einer Rubio	%	1.3%	4.3%
70	Marc Hirschi	%	1.3%	4.7%
71	Huub Artz	%	1.7%	6.5%
72	Nico Denz	%	1.7%	5.7%
73	Lorenzo Germani	%	1.2%	4.9%
74	Niklas Markl	%	1.1%	4.4%
75	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	1.1%	3.5%
76	Sebastian Berwick	%	1.4%	5.0%
77	Joris Delbove	%	1.2%	4.0%
78	Michael Storer	%	1.1%	3.9%
79	Ilan van Wilder	%	1.0%	3.3%
80	Victor Campenaerts	%	1.2%	4.2%
81	Toms Skujins	%	1.1%	4.1%
82	Rick Pluimers	%	1.2%	3.7%
83	Mathis le Berre	%	0.8%	3.8%
84	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	1.3%	4.1%
85	Jonas Rickaert	%	1.0%	3.4%
86	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.9%	3.1%
87	John Degenkolb	%	1.0%	3.0%
88	Marco Haller	%	1.0%	3.5%
89	Jake Stewart	%	0.8%	3.1%
90	Quentin Pacher	%	0.8%	3.0%
91	Sergio Higuita	%	0.7%	2.4%
92	Sepp Kuss	%	1.2%	3.8%
93	Lenny Martinez	%	0.9%	3.3%
94	Luke Plapp	%	0.9%	3.0%
95	Adam Yates	%	0.8%	2.9%
96	Piet Allegaert	%	0.9%	3.4%
97	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	0.9%	3.1%
98	Jai Hindley	%	0.8%	2.8%
99	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.8%	3.7%
100	Damiano Caruso	%	0.9%	3.3%
101	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.8%	3.0%
102	Davide Piganzoli	%	0.8%	3.3%
103	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	0.9%	3.0%
104	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	0.9%	3.0%
105	Frank van den Broek	%	0.8%	3.0%
106	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	0.9%	2.9%
107	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	1.0%	3.8%
108	Richard Carapaz	%	0.7%	2.6%
109	Jakub Otruba	%	0.7%	2.6%
110	Yannis Voisard	%	1.0%	2.5%
111	Nils Politt	%	0.9%	3.6%
112	Krists Neilands	%	0.8%	3.1%
113	Simone Velasco	%	0.7%	2.9%
114	Clement Russo	%	0.7%	2.4%
115	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.6%	2.4%
116	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	0.9%	3.8%
117	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.8%	3.2%
118	Matej Mohoric	%	0.7%	2.7%
119	Ion Izagirre	%	0.7%	2.2%
120	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.6%	2.2%
121	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.8%	3.1%
122	Egan Bernal	%	0.7%	2.6%
123	Alex Aranburu	%	0.8%	2.5%
124	Cees Bol	%	0.7%	2.8%
125	Luke Durbridge	%	0.7%	2.4%
126	Javier Romo	%	0.7%	2.3%
127	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.6%	2.0%
128	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.7%	2.3%
129	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.6%	2.2%
130	Matthew Riccitello	%	0.6%	2.0%
131	Thymen Arensman	%	0.5%	1.6%
132	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.7%	2.6%
133	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.7%	2.3%
134	Aaron Gate	%	0.6%	2.1%
135	Damien Howson	%	0.5%	2.0%
136	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.6%	1.9%
137	Matis Louvel	%	0.5%	1.6%
138	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.5%	1.9%
139	Harold Tejada	%	0.5%	2.2%
140	Joshua Tarling	%	0.4%	1.5%
141	Hugo Page	%	0.4%	1.3%
142	Jan Tratnik	%	0.6%	2.1%
143	Carlos Verona	%	0.5%	1.9%
144	Julius van den Berg	%	0.7%	1.9%
145	Kamil Gradek	%	0.5%	1.9%
146	Tim Marsman	%	0.5%	1.8%
147	Derek Gee	%	0.5%	1.6%
148	Guillaume Martin	%	0.5%	1.5%
149	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.4%	1.5%
150	Marco Frigo	%	0.5%	1.5%
151	Mike Teunissen	%	0.5%	2.0%
152	George Bennett	%	0.4%	1.4%
153	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.4%	1.9%
154	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.5%	1.6%
155	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.4%	1.7%
156	Ben O Connor	%	0.5%	1.5%
157	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.3%	1.4%
158	Jordan Jegat	%	0.4%	1.7%
159	Warren Barguil	%	0.3%	1.1%
160	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.3%	1.0%
161	Max Walker	%	0.3%	1.4%
162	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.3%	1.0%
163	Silvan Dillier	%	0.2%	0.7%
164	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.2%	0.6%

Show all 164 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Jasper Philipsen 18.0% ✓	Mads Pedersen 14.7%	Mads Pedersen 20.3%
2	Mads Pedersen 7.8%	Jasper Philipsen 12.0% ✓	Mathieu van der Poel 18.9%
3	Tadej Pogacar 7.5%	Mathieu van der Poel 10.2%	Jasper Philipsen 14.0% ✓
4	Olav Kooij 7.2%	Olav Kooij 7.8%	Biniam Girmay 12.6%
5	Biniam Girmay 3.0%	Biniam Girmay 3.9%	Olav Kooij 12.6%

Stage 18 · Voiron – Orcières-Merlette

Thursday 23 July 2026

Winner: Richard Carapaz

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	99.5%	100.0%
2	Remco Evenepoel	%	27.6%	79.9%
3	Isaac del Toro	%	17.4%	62.3%
4	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	12.4%	48.9%
5	Matteo Jorgenson	%	7.0%	31.1%
6	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	6.5%	28.5%
7	Paul Seixas	%	5.2%	24.4%
8	Lenny Martinez	%	5.7%	26.0%
9	Thomas Pidcock	%	5.6%	26.2%
10	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	3.3%	16.5%
11	Jai Hindley	%	4.4%	20.2%
12	Richard Carapaz	%	4.5%	20.2%
13	Egan Bernal	%	4.5%	21.2%
14	Ilan van Wilder	%	3.1%	14.4%
15	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	2.7%	13.8%
16	Davide Piganzoli	%	4.0%	19.5%
17	Tiesj Benoot	%	2.9%	14.7%
18	Kevin Vauquelin	%	2.5%	13.7%
19	Clement Braz Afonso	%	2.4%	11.1%
20	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	1.8%	9.9%
21	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	1.8%	9.2%
22	Sepp Kuss	%	2.7%	13.0%
23	Michael Storer	%	2.1%	11.3%
24	Ben Healy	%	2.1%	10.4%
25	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	1.7%	8.7%
26	Adam Yates	%	1.9%	8.7%
27	Sergio Higuita	%	1.7%	8.7%
28	Michael Matthews	%	1.7%	8.6%
29	Thymen Arensman	%	1.5%	7.8%
30	Mauro Schmid	%	1.1%	6.2%
31	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	1.5%	8.7%
32	Ben O Connor	%	1.6%	7.7%
33	Maxim van Gils	%	1.0%	4.3%
34	Tim Wellens	%	0.8%	3.8%
35	Luke Plapp	%	0.8%	3.6%
36	Jordan Jegat	%	1.8%	9.7%
37	Alex Baudin	%	1.4%	7.5%
38	Matthew Riccitello	%	1.4%	7.2%
39	Guillaume Martin	%	1.1%	6.3%
40	Marc Hirschi	%	1.1%	6.0%
41	Javier Romo	%	1.1%	5.1%
42	Romain Gregoire	%	0.8%	4.3%
43	Brandon Mcnulty	%	1.1%	4.8%
44	Sean Quinn	%	0.9%	4.4%
45	Matej Mohoric	%	0.8%	4.2%
46	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.9%	3.9%
47	Tim Marsman	%	0.8%	4.0%
48	Mathias Vacek	%	0.9%	4.1%
49	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.7%	3.9%
50	George Bennett	%	0.8%	3.9%
51	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.9%	4.0%
52	Quinten Hermans	%	0.7%	3.7%
53	Simone Velasco	%	0.6%	3.4%
54	Quinn Simmons	%	0.6%	3.1%
55	Edward Planckaert	%	0.7%	3.1%
56	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.5%	2.8%
57	Jakub Otruba	%	0.5%	2.3%
58	Yannis Voisard	%	0.5%	2.1%
59	Nicolas Breuillard	%	1.0%	5.2%
60	Antonio Tiberi	%	1.0%	5.4%
61	Alex Aranburu	%	0.8%	4.2%
62	Warren Barguil	%	0.7%	3.9%
63	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.7%	3.7%
64	Marco Frigo	%	0.6%	3.7%
65	Harold Tejada	%	0.7%	3.6%
66	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.6%	3.4%
67	Derek Gee	%	0.7%	3.4%
68	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.7%	3.5%
69	Jan Tratnik	%	0.5%	3.0%
70	Toms Skujins	%	0.5%	3.2%
71	Nelson Oliveira	%	0.6%	3.3%
72	Per Strand Hagenes	%	0.5%	3.0%
73	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.6%	3.0%
74	Mathieu van der Poel	%	0.6%	2.7%
75	Ion Izagirre	%	0.6%	2.4%
76	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.5%	2.6%
77	Einer Rubio	%	0.5%	2.5%
78	Filippo Ganna	%	0.4%	2.5%
79	Ewen Costiou	%	0.4%	2.4%
80	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.4%	2.3%
81	Bruno Armirail	%	0.5%	2.3%
82	Brent van Moer	%	0.5%	2.1%
83	Tobias Foss	%	0.5%	2.0%
84	Jasper Stuyven	%	0.3%	1.7%
85	Nils Politt	%	0.2%	1.5%
86	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.3%	1.5%
87	Joel Nicolau	%	0.3%	1.6%
88	Alex Kirsch	%	0.4%	1.6%
89	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.3%	1.3%
90	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.2%	0.9%
91	Mathis le Berre	%	0.2%	1.0%
92	Rick Pluimers	%	0.1%	1.1%
93	Dorian Godon	%	0.2%	1.0%
94	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.1%	0.9%
95	Pavel Bittner	%	0.1%	0.7%
96	Jasper Philipsen	%	0.1%	0.3%
97	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.7%	3.5%
98	Damiano Caruso	%	0.7%	3.1%
99	Matheo Vercher	%	0.5%	2.6%
100	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.4%	2.1%
101	Joris Delbove	%	0.4%	2.1%
102	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.5%	2.3%
103	Michel Hessmann	%	0.3%	2.1%
104	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.4%	1.8%
105	Frank van den Broek	%	0.4%	2.0%
106	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.4%	2.1%
107	Carlos Verona	%	0.3%	1.8%
108	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.3%	1.9%
109	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.3%	2.0%
110	Quentin Pacher	%	0.4%	2.0%
111	Liam Slock	%	0.2%	1.6%
112	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.4%	1.8%
113	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.5%	1.7%
114	Huub Artz	%	0.2%	1.4%
115	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.4%	1.6%
116	Krists Neilands	%	0.2%	1.4%
117	Robert Stannard	%	0.2%	1.3%
118	Julius van den Berg	%	0.3%	1.4%
119	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.2%	1.2%
120	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.2%	1.5%
121	Alfred Wright	%	0.3%	1.3%
122	Joshua Tarling	%	0.2%	1.2%
123	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.2%	1.3%
124	Davide Ballerini	%	0.2%	1.1%
125	Stefano Oldani	%	0.3%	1.3%
126	Nico Denz	%	0.2%	1.1%
127	Jake Stewart	%	0.2%	1.1%
128	Soren Waerenskjold	%	0.2%	1.0%
129	Jose Felix Parra	%	0.1%	0.8%
130	Daan Hoole	%	0.1%	1.0%
131	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.1%	0.8%
132	Edoardo Affini	%	0.2%	1.0%
133	Mads Pedersen	%	0.2%	1.0%
134	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.2%	0.8%
135	Marco Haller	%	0.2%	0.9%
136	Damien Howson	%	0.1%	0.8%
137	Piet Allegaert	%	0.1%	0.9%
138	Aaron Gate	%	0.2%	0.9%
139	Matis Louvel	%	0.2%	0.9%
140	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.2%	0.9%
141	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.1%	0.8%
142	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.1%	0.7%
143	Luke Durbridge	%	0.1%	0.7%
144	Olav Kooij	%	0.1%	0.6%
145	Milan Fretin	%	0.1%	0.6%
146	Max Kanter	%	0.1%	0.6%
147	Clement Russo	%	0.1%	0.6%
148	Lewis Askey	%	0.1%	0.7%
149	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.1%	0.6%
150	Anthony Turgis	%	0.1%	0.7%
151	Max Walker	%	0.1%	0.5%
152	Niklas Markl	%	0.1%	0.5%
153	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.1%	0.4%
154	Tim van Dijke	%	0.1%	0.4%
155	John Degenkolb	%	0.1%	0.5%
156	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.1%	0.5%
157	Hugo Page	%	0.1%	0.5%
158	Silvan Dillier	%	0.1%	0.3%
159	Biniam Girmay	%	0.1%	0.4%
160	Mike Teunissen	%	0.1%	0.4%
161	Kamil Gradek	%	0.1%	0.3%
162	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.1%	0.3%
163	Cees Bol	%	0.0%	0.3%
164	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.0%	0.3%

Show all 164 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 92.8%	Richard Carapaz 14.5% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 22.4%
2	Remco Evenepoel 2.0%	Tadej Pogacar 11.9%	Richard Carapaz 13.1% ✓
3	Isaac del Toro 0.8%	Isaac del Toro 5.4%	Isaac del Toro 12.2%
4	Juan Ayuso Pesquera 0.6%	Tobias Halland Johannessen 5.4%	Thymen Arensman 12.2%
5	Matteo Jorgenson 0.5%	Quinn Simmons 5.0%	Remco Evenepoel 10.4%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 153%; the extra 53% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Stage 19 · Gap – Alpe d'Huez

Friday 24 July 2026

Winner: Tadej Pogacar

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	93.1%	100.0%
2	Isaac del Toro	%	24.6%	74.7%
3	Remco Evenepoel	%	15.8%	55.2%
4	Matteo Jorgenson	%	12.3%	47.8%
5	Richard Carapaz	%	10.2%	41.8%
6	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	6.8%	29.9%
7	Jai Hindley	%	6.1%	27.8%
8	Sepp Kuss	%	5.5%	24.8%
9	Paul Seixas	%	5.6%	23.8%
10	Davide Piganzoli	%	4.2%	18.4%
11	Ilan van Wilder	%	5.1%	23.2%
12	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	3.9%	17.8%
13	Thymen Arensman	%	4.0%	18.8%
14	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	4.3%	19.0%
15	Adam Yates	%	4.0%	18.2%
16	Thomas Pidcock	%	3.0%	13.6%
17	Egan Bernal	%	3.8%	17.2%
18	Tiesj Benoot	%	3.4%	16.5%
19	Ben O Connor	%	3.0%	13.1%
20	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	2.8%	14.0%
21	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	2.6%	13.1%
22	Derek Gee	%	2.6%	13.5%
23	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	2.7%	12.5%
24	Guillaume Martin	%	2.5%	11.8%
25	Michael Storer	%	2.0%	9.7%
26	Jordan Jegat	%	2.6%	12.4%
27	Kevin Vauquelin	%	2.3%	10.8%
28	Antonio Tiberi	%	2.1%	11.1%
29	Clement Braz Afonso	%	1.8%	8.8%
30	Matthew Riccitello	%	1.8%	8.8%
31	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	1.5%	7.1%
32	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	1.4%	6.5%
33	Lenny Martinez	%	2.0%	9.8%
34	Ben Healy	%	1.4%	7.0%
35	Sergio Higuita	%	1.8%	8.8%
36	Harold Tejada	%	1.3%	5.8%
37	Yannis Voisard	%	1.4%	6.8%
38	George Bennett	%	0.9%	4.3%
39	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.9%	4.3%
40	Damiano Caruso	%	1.0%	4.5%
41	Warren Barguil	%	1.0%	4.4%
42	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	1.2%	5.9%
43	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.9%	4.9%
44	Romain Gregoire	%	0.9%	4.2%
45	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.9%	4.0%
46	Jan Tratnik	%	0.8%	3.5%
47	Tim Wellens	%	0.7%	3.6%
48	Nicolas Breuillard	%	1.0%	4.2%
49	Einer Rubio	%	0.8%	4.0%
50	Michael Matthews	%	0.8%	3.7%
51	Carlos Verona	%	0.7%	3.2%
52	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.5%	2.8%
53	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.7%	2.9%
54	Bruno Armirail	%	0.7%	2.9%
55	Alex Baudin	%	0.7%	3.8%
56	Alex Aranburu	%	0.8%	3.5%
57	Nelson Oliveira	%	0.8%	3.7%
58	Brent van Moer	%	0.6%	3.4%
59	Per Strand Hagenes	%	0.7%	3.5%
60	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.7%	3.4%
61	Filippo Ganna	%	0.6%	3.1%
62	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.4%	1.9%
63	Matej Mohoric	%	0.8%	3.5%
64	Marco Frigo	%	0.6%	3.5%
65	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.5%	3.1%
66	Joel Nicolau	%	0.6%	2.9%
67	Luke Plapp	%	0.5%	2.1%
68	Jakub Otruba	%	0.4%	2.2%
69	Damien Howson	%	0.4%	2.0%
70	Simone Velasco	%	0.5%	2.2%
71	Huub Artz	%	0.4%	1.8%
72	Nico Denz	%	0.4%	1.9%
73	Tim Marsman	%	0.5%	3.0%
74	Marc Hirschi	%	0.5%	2.6%
75	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.5%	2.5%
76	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.5%	2.5%
77	Javier Romo	%	0.4%	2.2%
78	Ewen Costiou	%	0.6%	2.3%
79	Edward Planckaert	%	0.4%	2.3%
80	Olav Kooij	%	0.3%	2.0%
81	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.4%	1.9%
82	Joshua Tarling	%	0.4%	1.9%
83	Tobias Foss	%	0.5%	1.9%
84	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.4%	1.8%
85	Toms Skujins	%	0.3%	1.6%
86	Edoardo Affini	%	0.3%	1.4%
87	Jasper Stuyven	%	0.2%	0.9%
88	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.2%	1.0%
89	Niklas Markl	%	0.2%	0.8%
90	Frank van den Broek	%	0.4%	1.9%
91	Matheo Vercher	%	0.3%	1.8%
92	Mauro Schmid	%	0.4%	2.0%
93	Mathias Vacek	%	0.4%	1.8%
94	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.4%	1.8%
95	Maxim van Gils	%	0.3%	1.8%
96	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.4%	1.9%
97	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.3%	1.8%
98	Joris Delbove	%	0.4%	1.8%
99	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.2%	1.5%
100	Quentin Pacher	%	0.2%	1.6%
101	Alfred Wright	%	0.2%	1.5%
102	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.3%	1.3%
103	Alex Kirsch	%	0.3%	1.3%
104	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.2%	1.3%
105	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.4%	1.4%
106	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.3%	1.2%
107	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.2%	1.1%
108	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.2%	1.1%
109	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.3%	1.1%
110	Quinn Simmons	%	0.3%	1.0%
111	Luke Durbridge	%	0.2%	1.0%
112	Daan Hoole	%	0.2%	1.0%
113	Dorian Godon	%	0.2%	1.0%
114	Ion Izagirre	%	0.2%	1.0%
115	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.1%	0.9%
116	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.2%	0.9%
117	Soren Waerenskjold	%	0.2%	1.0%
118	Milan Fretin	%	0.2%	0.8%
119	Aaron Gate	%	0.2%	0.8%
120	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.2%	0.9%
121	Mads Pedersen	%	0.2%	0.7%
122	Nils Politt	%	0.3%	1.7%
123	Mathis le Berre	%	0.3%	1.7%
124	Jake Stewart	%	0.2%	1.4%
125	Sean Quinn	%	0.2%	1.0%
126	Michel Hessmann	%	0.2%	1.0%
127	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.2%	1.0%
128	Krists Neilands	%	0.2%	1.1%
129	Davide Ballerini	%	0.2%	0.9%
130	Rick Pluimers	%	0.2%	1.0%
131	Liam Slock	%	0.2%	1.0%
132	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.2%	0.8%
133	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.1%	0.8%
134	Robert Stannard	%	0.1%	0.8%
135	Julius van den Berg	%	0.1%	0.6%
136	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.1%	0.6%
137	Matis Louvel	%	0.1%	0.7%
138	Quinten Hermans	%	0.2%	0.7%
139	Max Kanter	%	0.1%	0.7%
140	Anthony Turgis	%	0.2%	0.8%
141	Clement Russo	%	0.1%	0.5%
142	Tim van Dijke	%	0.1%	0.6%
143	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.1%	0.5%
144	Piet Allegaert	%	0.1%	0.5%
145	Marco Haller	%	0.1%	0.6%
146	John Degenkolb	%	0.1%	0.6%
147	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.1%	0.5%
148	Hugo Page	%	0.1%	0.4%
149	Pavel Bittner	%	0.1%	0.4%
150	Stefano Oldani	%	0.1%	0.3%
151	Max Walker	%	0.1%	0.4%
152	Kamil Gradek	%	0.1%	0.4%
153	Cees Bol	%	0.0%	0.3%
154	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.1%	0.3%
155	Mike Teunissen	%	0.0%	0.3%
156	Lewis Askey	%	0.1%	0.3%
157	Mathieu van der Poel	%	0.1%	0.3%
158	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.1%	0.4%
159	Biniam Girmay	%	0.0%	0.2%
160	Silvan Dillier	%	0.1%	0.3%
161	Jasper Philipsen	%	0.0%	0.2%
162	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.1%	0.2%

Show all 162 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 75.0% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 38.1% ✓	Tadej Pogacar 23.9% ✓
2	Isaac del Toro 5.6%	Richard Carapaz 14.8%	Remco Evenepoel 21.7%
3	Remco Evenepoel 3.1%	Sepp Kuss 8.3%	Isaac del Toro 17.5%
4	Matteo Jorgenson 2.0%	Isaac del Toro 3.5%	Paul Seixas 9.5%
5	Richard Carapaz 1.9%	Remco Evenepoel 3.5%	Sepp Kuss 8.6%

Stage 20 · Le Bourg d'Oisans – Alpe d'Huez

Saturday 25 July 2026

Winner: Richard Carapaz

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	95.4%	100.0%
2	Isaac del Toro	%	24.1%	73.2%
3	Remco Evenepoel	%	18.0%	62.0%
4	Matteo Jorgenson	%	9.9%	41.8%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	7.1%	30.9%
6	Paul Seixas	%	7.0%	29.4%
7	Richard Carapaz	%	7.6%	33.1%
8	Sepp Kuss	%	4.8%	22.3%
9	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	4.8%	22.5%
10	Lenny Martinez	%	4.2%	18.0%
11	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	4.4%	20.3%
12	Jai Hindley	%	4.0%	19.1%
13	Thomas Pidcock	%	4.3%	17.7%
14	Ilan van Wilder	%	3.9%	18.0%
15	Davide Piganzoli	%	3.2%	14.7%
16	Kevin Vauquelin	%	4.0%	18.7%
17	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	3.6%	16.4%
18	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	2.5%	11.7%
19	Ben Healy	%	2.3%	11.6%
20	Tiesj Benoot	%	2.8%	15.1%
21	Clement Braz Afonso	%	2.4%	11.4%
22	Michael Storer	%	2.3%	10.7%
23	Jordan Jegat	%	2.3%	11.3%
24	Matthew Riccitello	%	2.1%	10.2%
25	Egan Bernal	%	1.9%	9.6%
26	Ben O Connor	%	1.6%	7.2%
27	Antonio Tiberi	%	1.6%	7.9%
28	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	1.6%	8.1%
29	Alex Baudin	%	1.9%	7.9%
30	Sergio Higuita	%	1.9%	9.4%
31	Adam Yates	%	1.6%	7.9%
32	Jakub Otruba	%	1.1%	5.8%
33	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	1.1%	5.1%
34	Carlos Verona	%	1.1%	5.7%
35	Michael Matthews	%	1.5%	8.2%
36	Romain Gregoire	%	1.4%	5.8%
37	Thymen Arensman	%	0.9%	4.5%
38	Matej Mohoric	%	1.2%	6.4%
39	Javier Romo	%	0.8%	4.0%
40	Marc Hirschi	%	1.1%	5.8%
41	Mauro Schmid	%	1.1%	5.9%
42	Marco Frigo	%	1.1%	4.8%
43	Michel Hessmann	%	1.0%	4.5%
44	Victor Campenaerts	%	0.9%	4.2%
45	Warren Barguil	%	0.6%	3.2%
46	Harold Tejada	%	1.0%	4.6%
47	Maxim van Gils	%	1.0%	4.5%
48	George Bennett	%	1.0%	5.0%
49	Tim Marsman	%	0.9%	4.1%
50	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.9%	4.3%
51	Yannis Voisard	%	1.0%	5.3%
52	Nicolas Breuillard	%	0.8%	4.8%
53	Dylan van Baarle	%	0.9%	4.5%
54	Anders Skaarseth	%	0.9%	4.6%
55	Simone Velasco	%	1.0%	4.7%
56	Guillaume Martin	%	0.6%	3.5%
57	Joel Nicolau	%	0.9%	4.0%
58	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.9%	3.9%
59	Brent van Moer	%	0.8%	3.5%
60	Tim Wellens	%	0.7%	3.0%
61	Bruno Armirail	%	0.8%	3.3%
62	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.6%	2.9%
63	Thibault Guernalec	%	0.6%	3.0%
64	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.5%	2.4%
65	Sean Quinn	%	0.5%	2.3%
66	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	0.7%	3.8%
67	Mathias Vacek	%	0.7%	4.0%
68	Jan Tratnik	%	0.7%	3.8%
69	Ewen Costiou	%	0.7%	3.6%
70	Per Strand Hagenes	%	0.6%	3.4%
71	Alex Aranburu	%	0.7%	3.1%
72	Matheo Vercher	%	0.7%	3.3%
73	Tobias Foss	%	0.7%	3.1%
74	Quinn Simmons	%	0.6%	2.9%
75	Huub Artz	%	0.6%	2.9%
76	Joris Delbove	%	0.6%	2.5%
77	Nelson Oliveira	%	0.5%	2.6%
78	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	0.5%	2.1%
79	Edward Planckaert	%	0.5%	3.2%
80	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.5%	3.2%
81	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	0.6%	3.0%
82	Olav Kooij	%	0.6%	2.6%
83	Quinten Hermans	%	0.6%	2.8%
84	Derek Gee	%	0.4%	2.6%
85	Luke Plapp	%	0.4%	2.3%
86	Sebastian Berwick	%	0.5%	2.0%
87	Nils Politt	%	0.4%	1.7%
88	Jake Stewart	%	0.5%	1.9%
89	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.3%	1.7%
90	Ion Izagirre	%	0.4%	1.7%
91	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.4%	1.5%
92	Matis Louvel	%	0.3%	1.4%
93	Julius van den Berg	%	0.3%	1.2%
94	Vlad van Mechelen	%	0.5%	2.3%
95	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	0.5%	2.2%
96	Toms Skujins	%	0.4%	2.3%
97	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.4%	2.3%
98	Alexandre Delettre	%	0.3%	1.7%
99	Damiano Caruso	%	0.4%	1.7%
100	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.2%	1.5%
101	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.3%	1.7%
102	Soren Waerenskjold	%	0.3%	1.7%
103	Alex Kirsch	%	0.3%	1.4%
104	Robert Stannard	%	0.3%	1.4%
105	Aaron Gate	%	0.3%	1.4%
106	Damien Howson	%	0.3%	1.2%
107	Niklas Markl	%	0.3%	1.1%
108	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.2%	1.1%
109	Luke Durbridge	%	0.2%	1.3%
110	Nico Denz	%	0.2%	1.1%
111	Piet Allegaert	%	0.2%	1.0%
112	Liam Slock	%	0.2%	1.2%
113	Alfred Wright	%	0.3%	1.2%
114	Krists Neilands	%	0.2%	1.0%
115	John Degenkolb	%	0.2%	1.0%
116	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.2%	1.0%
117	Milan Fretin	%	0.2%	1.0%
118	Clement Russo	%	0.2%	0.8%
119	Tim van Dijke	%	0.2%	0.9%
120	Silvan Dillier	%	0.1%	0.6%
121	Frank van den Broek	%	0.4%	2.5%
122	Quentin Pacher	%	0.5%	2.3%
123	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.4%	2.1%
124	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.3%	1.8%
125	Davide Ballerini	%	0.3%	1.6%
126	Jasper Stuyven	%	0.3%	1.6%
127	Joshua Tarling	%	0.2%	1.2%
128	Filippo Ganna	%	0.2%	1.4%
129	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.2%	1.5%
130	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.3%	1.4%
131	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.2%	1.4%
132	Daan Hoole	%	0.2%	1.3%
133	Mathis le Berre	%	0.2%	1.0%
134	Max Kanter	%	0.2%	1.1%
135	Julian Alaphilippe	%	0.2%	1.1%
136	Dorian Godon	%	0.2%	0.9%
137	Rick Pluimers	%	0.2%	0.8%
138	Anthony Turgis	%	0.2%	1.0%
139	Marco Haller	%	0.2%	0.7%
140	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.1%	0.7%
141	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.2%	0.8%
142	Mads Pedersen	%	0.1%	0.6%
143	Stefano Oldani	%	0.1%	0.6%
144	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.1%	0.6%
145	Hugo Page	%	0.1%	0.6%
146	Pavel Bittner	%	0.1%	0.6%
147	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.1%	0.7%
148	Biniam Girmay	%	0.1%	0.7%
149	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.1%	0.6%
150	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.1%	0.5%
151	Jasper Philipsen	%	0.1%	0.6%
152	Pascal Ackermann	%	0.2%	0.6%
153	Max Walker	%	0.1%	0.4%
154	Kamil Gradek	%	0.1%	0.5%
155	Cees Bol	%	0.1%	0.3%
156	Lewis Askey	%	0.1%	0.5%
157	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.1%	0.5%
158	Phil Bauhaus	%	0.1%	0.4%
159	Mathieu van der Poel	%	0.1%	0.4%
160	Mike Teunissen	%	0.1%	0.3%

Show all 160 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 79.3%	Tadej Pogacar 26.3%	Tadej Pogacar 22.2%
2	Isaac del Toro 4.7%	Richard Carapaz 24.4% ✓	Richard Carapaz 14.2% ✓
3	Remco Evenepoel 3.1%	Sepp Kuss 10.1%	Sepp Kuss 12.0%
4	Matteo Jorgenson 1.3%	Remco Evenepoel 5.1%	Remco Evenepoel 10.0%
5	Juan Ayuso Pesquera 0.9%	Isaac del Toro 4.4%	Isaac del Toro 8.7%

Stage 21 · Paris – Paris

Sunday 26 July 2026

Winner: Mathieu van der Poel

Win probabilities

#	Rider	Win	Top 3	Top 10
1	Tadej Pogacar	%	33.1%	75.6%
2	Mads Pedersen	%	19.6%	54.2%
3	Mathieu van der Poel	%	16.6%	48.7%
4	Jasper Philipsen	%	10.1%	32.0%
5	Remco Evenepoel	%	8.1%	26.7%
6	Matteo Jorgenson	%	7.0%	23.5%
7	Thomas Pidcock	%	7.1%	24.0%
8	Paul Seixas	%	6.0%	19.6%
9	Juan Ayuso Pesquera	%	4.9%	17.4%
10	Isaac del Toro	%	5.4%	18.9%
11	Kevin Vauquelin	%	4.2%	14.3%
12	Michael Matthews	%	4.3%	15.2%
13	Jasper Stuyven	%	4.1%	14.6%
14	Mauro Schmid	%	4.5%	14.6%
15	Tiesj Benoot	%	4.5%	15.5%
16	Romain Gregoire	%	3.7%	13.2%
17	Lenny Martinez	%	3.2%	11.3%
18	Olav Kooij	%	4.0%	14.3%
19	Jonas Abrahamsen	%	3.2%	11.0%
20	Sean Quinn	%	2.7%	9.5%
21	Soren Waerenskjold	%	2.7%	9.6%
22	Michael Valgren Andersen	%	2.6%	9.7%
23	Simone Velasco	%	2.4%	8.0%
24	Biniam Girmay	%	2.4%	8.9%
25	Per Strand Hagenes	%	2.5%	9.1%
26	Mathias Vacek	%	2.3%	7.8%
27	Phil Bauhaus	%	2.1%	7.5%
28	Mattias Skjelmose Jensen	%	2.5%	9.2%
29	Nelson Oliveira	%	2.1%	7.8%
30	Sebastian Berwick	%	2.1%	8.2%
31	Clement Braz Afonso	%	2.1%	7.1%
32	Alex Aranburu	%	1.9%	6.8%
33	Marc Hirschi	%	2.5%	9.3%
34	Maxim van Gils	%	2.3%	9.0%
35	Alfred Wright	%	1.7%	6.3%
36	Anders Skaarseth	%	1.8%	6.6%
37	Lennert van Eetvelt	%	1.5%	5.7%
38	Ben Healy	%	2.1%	7.8%
39	Filippo Ganna	%	1.9%	6.8%
40	Alexandre Delettre	%	2.1%	7.2%
41	Alex Kirsch	%	2.1%	6.6%
42	Liam Slock	%	1.9%	6.4%
43	Michel Hessmann	%	1.6%	5.9%
44	Matej Mohoric	%	1.6%	5.9%
45	Pablo Castrillo Zapater	%	1.6%	6.2%
46	Egan Bernal	%	1.6%	5.8%
47	Dorian Godon	%	1.6%	6.0%
48	Dylan van Baarle	%	1.5%	5.7%
49	Alex Baudin	%	1.5%	5.4%
50	Victor Campenaerts	%	1.4%	5.2%
51	Brent van Moer	%	1.6%	5.6%
52	Matheo Vercher	%	1.6%	5.9%
53	Sergio Higuita	%	1.5%	5.2%
54	Luke Plapp	%	1.5%	5.5%
55	Nicolas Breuillard	%	1.5%	5.5%
56	Quinn Simmons	%	1.5%	6.0%
57	Daan Hoole	%	1.6%	5.5%
58	Jan Tratnik	%	1.4%	5.6%
59	Edward Planckaert	%	1.3%	4.6%
60	Valentin Paret Peintre	%	1.8%	6.2%
61	Julian Alaphilippe	%	1.5%	5.9%
62	Davide Piganzoli	%	1.2%	4.5%
63	Davide Ballerini	%	1.2%	4.1%
64	Nils Politt	%	1.1%	4.5%
65	Tobias Foss	%	1.2%	4.5%
66	Matthew Riccitello	%	1.4%	5.7%
67	Bruno Armirail	%	1.3%	4.7%
68	Nicolas Prodhomme	%	1.2%	4.1%
69	Frank van den Broek	%	1.2%	3.7%
70	Richard Carapaz	%	1.1%	3.6%
71	George Bennett	%	1.2%	4.1%
72	Mike Teunissen	%	0.8%	3.5%
73	Tobias Halland Johannessen	%	1.1%	3.8%
74	Huub Artz	%	1.0%	3.4%
75	Jakub Otruba	%	1.2%	4.7%
76	Lewis Askey	%	1.2%	4.2%
77	Thibault Guernalec	%	1.0%	3.4%
78	Quinten Hermans	%	0.9%	3.2%
79	Tim Wellens	%	1.2%	4.9%
80	Nico Denz	%	1.1%	3.9%
81	Joris Delbove	%	1.0%	3.5%
82	Vlad van Mechelen	%	1.0%	3.5%
83	Krists Neilands	%	0.7%	2.8%
84	Jonas Rickaert	%	0.8%	2.7%
85	Ewen Costiou	%	1.0%	3.2%
86	Quentin Pacher	%	1.1%	4.3%
87	Felix Engelhardt	%	0.7%	3.0%
88	Robert Stannard	%	0.8%	3.0%
89	Jai Hindley	%	0.8%	2.8%
90	Pavel Bittner	%	0.8%	3.1%
91	Tim van Dijke	%	1.0%	3.6%
92	Harold Tejada	%	0.9%	3.5%
93	Anders Halland Johannessen	%	0.7%	2.4%
94	Javier Romo	%	0.9%	3.4%
95	Stefano Oldani	%	0.7%	3.2%
96	Louis Vervaeke	%	0.8%	2.8%
97	Ion Izagirre	%	0.7%	2.5%
98	Sepp Kuss	%	0.6%	2.5%
99	Carlos Verona	%	0.6%	2.1%
100	Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez	%	0.5%	1.5%
101	Florian Vermeersch	%	0.8%	2.9%
102	Felix Grossschartner	%	0.9%	3.1%
103	Nicolas Vinokurov	%	0.7%	2.9%
104	John Degenkolb	%	0.8%	2.9%
105	Aurelien Paret Peintre	%	0.9%	3.1%
106	Xandro Meurisse	%	0.9%	3.4%
107	Marco Haller	%	0.8%	2.9%
108	Julius van den Berg	%	0.5%	2.4%
109	Joshua Tarling	%	0.6%	2.1%
110	Antonio Tiberi	%	0.5%	2.0%
111	Rick Pluimers	%	0.8%	2.9%
112	Benjamin Thomas	%	0.7%	2.5%
113	Kasper Asgreen	%	0.6%	2.1%
114	Abel Balderstone Roumens	%	0.6%	2.3%
115	Thymen Arensman	%	0.6%	2.1%
116	Lorenzo Germani	%	0.6%	2.1%
117	Mattia Cattaneo	%	0.5%	2.1%
118	Raul Garcia Pierna	%	0.4%	1.8%
119	Michal Kwiatkowski	%	0.3%	1.5%
120	Michael Storer	%	0.7%	3.6%
121	Damiano Caruso	%	0.6%	2.3%
122	Magnus Cort Nielsen	%	0.7%	2.1%
123	Matis Louvel	%	0.5%	2.1%
124	Derek Gee	%	0.6%	1.7%
125	Piet Allegaert	%	0.6%	1.7%
126	Niklas Markl	%	0.5%	1.8%
127	Adam Yates	%	0.6%	1.8%
128	Georg Steinhauser	%	0.3%	1.3%
129	Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun	%	0.5%	2.0%
130	Georg Zimmermann	%	0.6%	2.0%
131	Jordan Jegat	%	0.4%	1.6%
132	Mathis le Berre	%	0.5%	1.6%
133	Marco Frigo	%	0.5%	1.9%
134	Anthony Turgis	%	0.5%	1.8%
135	Yannis Voisard	%	0.5%	1.9%
136	Warren Barguil	%	0.4%	1.7%
137	Clement Russo	%	0.3%	1.4%
138	Max Kanter	%	0.4%	1.6%
139	Milan Fretin	%	0.4%	1.5%
140	Max Walker	%	0.3%	0.9%
141	Guillaume Martin	%	0.3%	1.5%
142	Baptiste Veistroffer	%	0.5%	1.7%
143	Joel Nicolau	%	0.3%	1.5%
144	Ben O Connor	%	0.5%	1.7%
145	Tim Marsman	%	0.4%	1.5%
146	Pascal Eenkhoorn	%	0.3%	1.3%
147	Damien Howson	%	0.3%	1.3%
148	Aaron Gate	%	0.3%	1.1%
149	Jake Stewart	%	0.3%	1.1%
150	Hugo Page	%	0.4%	1.2%
151	Emiel Verstrynge	%	0.3%	1.1%
152	Toms Skujins	%	0.5%	2.3%
153	Luke Durbridge	%	0.3%	1.3%
154	Silvan Dillier	%	0.3%	1.2%
155	Kamil Gradek	%	0.3%	1.0%
156	Cees Bol	%	0.2%	0.8%
157	Jenthe Biermans	%	0.2%	1.1%
158	Robbe Dhondt	%	0.2%	0.8%

Show all 158 riders ▾Show top 20 ▴

Chance for the breakaway

Chance that a breakaway takes the stage, from a separate logistic model over the route profile. This model only looks at the profile, not at team tactics.

Model vs the market vs Wielerorakel

#	My model	Unibet (fair)	Wielerorakel
1	Tadej Pogacar 23.2%	Mathieu van der Poel 28.4% ✓	Mathieu van der Poel 26.8% ✓
2	Mads Pedersen 10.7%	Tadej Pogacar 14.2%	Tadej Pogacar 18.9%
3	Mathieu van der Poel 8.9% ✓	Mads Pedersen 11.6%	Tom Pidcock 9.1%
4	Jasper Philipsen 4.0%	Remco Evenepoel 7.1%	Mads Pedersen 8.9%
5	Remco Evenepoel 3.3%	Jasper Philipsen 4.9%	Quinn Simmons 7.8%

Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 157%; the extra 57% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.

Scoreboard

Stage winners predicted correctly

My modelUnibet (fair)Wielerorakel

Days with the sharpest prediction (lowest Brier)

My modelUnibet (fair)Wielerorakel

Overall standing

Predictor	Stages	Avg Brier ↓
Unibet (fair)	20	0.6719
Wielerorakel	20	0.7664
My model	20	0.8609

Scored on stages all three predicted, after the stage has been raced. Each predictor = its top-15 win probabilities as published; Unibet’s odds are first stripped of the bookmaker’s margin. Brier = squared error on the winner outcome; lower is better.

Last updated on: 2026-08-23 23:02.
Stage 1 is a team time trial, which an individual-rider model cannot score.