Tour de France
Hier staan voorspellingen voor elke individuele etappe van de Tour de France 2026. Normaal gesproken worden de voorspellingen geplaatst tussen 20:00 en 21:00 op de avond voorafgaand aan de etappe. De winstkansen worden berekend aan de hand van de kwaliteiten van een renner, het parcours en de vorm van de renner. Tot zover is het allemaal vrij normaal voor dit type modellen, maar ik heb wat dingen ingebouwd die het allemaal net een beetje anders zouden moeten maken.
Omdat ik voorspellen interessant vind, houd ik ook bij wat andere voorspellers denken. Specifiek Wielerorakel en wedkantoor Unibet. Ik houd de voorspelprestaties bij op een scorebord onderaan deze pagina. De gedachte is dat je aan het eind van de Tour kan zien wie het het beste deed.
Ik ben van plan om tijdens de Tour een paar blogposts te schrijven, die wat gedetailleerder ingaan op hoe dit model werkt, waarvoor je het kan gebruiken en waarvoor niet. Stay tuned!
Stage 2 · Tarragona – Barcelona
Sunday 5 July 2026
Winner: Isaac del Toro
Win probabilities
| # | Rider | Win | Top 3 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tadej Pogacar | % | 64.3% | 98.3% |
| 2 | Paul Seixas | % | 50.2% | 94.3% |
| 3 | Jonas Vingegaard | % | 24.5% | 73.5% |
| 4 | Remco Evenepoel | % | 10.3% | 39.8% |
| 5 | Isaac del Toro | % | 9.6% | 38.9% |
| 6 | Mathieu van der Poel | % | 4.7% | 20.7% |
| 7 | Juan Ayuso Pesquera | % | 4.3% | 19.6% |
| 8 | Mattias Skjelmose Jensen | % | 3.2% | 15.1% |
| 9 | Mads Pedersen | % | 3.3% | 15.0% |
| 10 | Tobias Halland Johannessen | % | 2.6% | 12.3% |
| 11 | Matteo Jorgenson | % | 2.6% | 11.9% |
| 12 | Harold Tejada | % | 2.5% | 11.9% |
| 13 | Kevin Vauquelin | % | 2.7% | 12.0% |
| 14 | Thymen Arensman | % | 2.4% | 10.8% |
| 15 | Jordan Jegat | % | 2.4% | 11.1% |
| 16 | Richard Carapaz | % | 2.4% | 9.9% |
| 17 | Jai Hindley | % | 2.3% | 10.1% |
| 18 | Valentin Paret Peintre | % | 2.4% | 11.4% |
| 19 | Michael Storer | % | 2.4% | 10.9% |
| 20 | Jasper Philipsen | % | 1.9% | 8.2% |
| 21 | Tom Pidcock | % | 2.3% | 10.5% |
| 22 | Lenny Martinez | % | 1.8% | 8.9% |
| 23 | Yannis Voisard | % | 1.6% | 7.8% |
| 24 | Michael Matthews | % | 1.6% | 6.3% |
| 25 | Lennert van Eetvelt | % | 1.5% | 7.8% |
| 26 | Ben O Connor | % | 1.4% | 6.8% |
| 27 | Egan Bernal | % | 1.8% | 8.1% |
| 28 | Alex Aranburu | % | 1.8% | 8.7% |
| 29 | Dylan van Baarle | % | 1.5% | 5.5% |
| 30 | Guillaume Martin | % | 1.3% | 5.9% |
| 31 | Jonas Abrahamsen | % | 1.3% | 6.2% |
| 32 | Alex Baudin | % | 1.6% | 8.1% |
| 33 | Nelson Oliveira | % | 1.1% | 4.8% |
| 34 | Sergio Higuita | % | 1.4% | 6.3% |
| 35 | Filippo Ganna | % | 1.0% | 4.2% |
| 36 | Ilan van Wilder | % | 1.5% | 6.5% |
| 37 | Chris Harper | % | 1.4% | 6.5% |
| 38 | Pablo Castrillo Zapater | % | 1.2% | 5.5% |
| 39 | Mauro Schmid | % | 1.1% | 5.5% |
| 40 | Warren Barguil | % | 1.2% | 5.4% |
| 41 | Tiesj Benoot | % | 1.0% | 4.5% |
| 42 | Mathias Vacek | % | 0.8% | 3.2% |
| 43 | Ewen Costiou | % | 0.8% | 3.4% |
| 44 | Cian Uijtdebroeks | % | 1.3% | 6.7% |
| 45 | George Bennett | % | 1.2% | 5.4% |
| 46 | Sepp Kuss | % | 1.1% | 5.2% |
| 47 | Carlos Verona | % | 1.0% | 4.9% |
| 48 | Jasper Stuyven | % | 0.8% | 3.5% |
| 49 | Alex Kirsch | % | 1.0% | 5.2% |
| 50 | Alexandre Delettre | % | 1.0% | 4.5% |
| 51 | Arnaud de Lie | % | 1.0% | 4.3% |
| 52 | Sebastian Berwick | % | 1.1% | 5.4% |
| 53 | Abel Balderstone Roumens | % | 1.0% | 5.0% |
| 54 | Clement Braz Afonso | % | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| 55 | Soren Waerenskjold | % | 0.8% | 3.7% |
| 56 | Marco Frigo | % | 0.8% | 3.3% |
| 57 | Liam Slock | % | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| 58 | Derek Gee | % | 1.1% | 5.1% |
| 59 | Florian Lipowitz | % | 1.1% | 4.7% |
| 60 | Ben Healy | % | 1.1% | 5.1% |
| 61 | Per Strand Hagenes | % | 0.9% | 4.2% |
| 62 | Marc Hirschi | % | 0.8% | 4.3% |
| 63 | Damiano Caruso | % | 0.8% | 3.6% |
| 64 | Einer Rubio | % | 0.8% | 3.4% |
| 65 | Mike Teunissen | % | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| 66 | Davide Piganzoli | % | 1.0% | 4.3% |
| 67 | Anders Halland Johannessen | % | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| 68 | Brent van Moer | % | 1.0% | 3.9% |
| 69 | Antonio Tiberi | % | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 70 | Benjamin Thomas | % | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 71 | Alfred Wright | % | 0.5% | 2.5% |
| 72 | Romain Gregoire | % | 0.9% | 4.5% |
| 73 | Matej Mohoric | % | 0.8% | 3.8% |
| 74 | Jakub Otruba | % | 0.8% | 3.5% |
| 75 | Rick Pluimers | % | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| 76 | Luke Plapp | % | 0.7% | 3.4% |
| 77 | Clement Berthet | % | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 78 | Biniam Girmay | % | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| 79 | Vlad van Mechelen | % | 0.5% | 2.7% |
| 80 | Pavel Bittner | % | 0.5% | 2.0% |
| 81 | Lewis Askey | % | 0.8% | 4.0% |
| 82 | Julius van den Berg | % | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| 83 | Baptiste Veistroffer | % | 0.7% | 3.6% |
| 84 | Maxim van Gils | % | 0.7% | 3.6% |
| 85 | Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun | % | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| 86 | Felix Grossschartner | % | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| 87 | Adam Yates | % | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| 88 | Michael Valgren Andersen | % | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| 89 | Aurelien Paret Peintre | % | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| 90 | Alex Molenaar | % | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 91 | Jan Tratnik | % | 0.6% | 2.6% |
| 92 | Dorian Godon | % | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| 93 | Magnus Cort Nielsen | % | 0.6% | 2.5% |
| 94 | Stefano Oldani | % | 0.5% | 2.2% |
| 95 | Lars Craps | % | 0.5% | 2.0% |
| 96 | Joris Delbove | % | 0.6% | 1.9% |
| 97 | Nicolas Vinokurov | % | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 98 | Raul Garcia Pierna | % | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| 99 | Edward Planckaert | % | 0.5% | 2.8% |
| 100 | Matheo Vercher | % | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| 101 | Tim Wellens | % | 0.5% | 2.5% |
| 102 | Tim Marsman | % | 0.6% | 2.5% |
| 103 | Julian Alaphilippe | % | 0.3% | 2.2% |
| 104 | Javier Romo | % | 0.4% | 2.3% |
| 105 | Toms Skujins | % | 0.5% | 2.2% |
| 106 | Ion Izagirre | % | 0.4% | 1.9% |
| 107 | Tobias Foss | % | 0.5% | 1.8% |
| 108 | Felix Engelhardt | % | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| 109 | Nils Politt | % | 0.4% | 1.6% |
| 110 | Victor Campenaerts | % | 0.4% | 1.4% |
| 111 | Kelland Brien | % | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| 112 | Silvan Dillier | % | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| 113 | Matthew Riccitello | % | 0.5% | 2.7% |
| 114 | Georg Zimmermann | % | 0.4% | 1.9% |
| 115 | Jonas Rickaert | % | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| 116 | Hugo Page | % | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| 117 | Simone Velasco | % | 0.5% | 2.2% |
| 118 | Nicolas Breuillard | % | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| 119 | Frank van den Broek | % | 0.4% | 2.2% |
| 120 | Louis Vervaeke | % | 0.3% | 1.9% |
| 121 | Arvid de Kleijn | % | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 122 | Olav Kooij | % | 0.3% | 1.7% |
| 123 | Krists Neilands | % | 0.4% | 1.8% |
| 124 | Brandon Mcnulty | % | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| 125 | Davide Ballerini | % | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| 126 | Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez | % | 0.4% | 1.9% |
| 127 | Bruno Armirail | % | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| 128 | Jose Felix Parra | % | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| 129 | Huub Artz | % | 0.3% | 1.6% |
| 130 | Bert van Lerberghe | % | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| 131 | Nicolas Prodhomme | % | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| 132 | Nico Denz | % | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| 133 | Florian Vermeersch | % | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| 134 | Joel Nicolau | % | 0.2% | 1.6% |
| 135 | John Degenkolb | % | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| 136 | Piet Allegaert | % | 0.4% | 1.3% |
| 137 | Mathis le Berre | % | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| 138 | Emiel Verstrynge | % | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 139 | Luke Durbridge | % | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 140 | Tim Merlier | % | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| 141 | Daan Hoole | % | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| 142 | Anders Skaarseth | % | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 143 | Tim van Dijke | % | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| 144 | Robbe Dhondt | % | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 145 | Phil Bauhaus | % | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| 146 | Georg Steinhauser | % | 0.3% | 1.9% |
| 147 | Michal Kwiatkowski | % | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| 148 | Jenno Berckmoes | % | 0.3% | 1.7% |
| 149 | Torstein Traeen | % | 0.3% | 1.6% |
| 150 | Lorenzo Germani | % | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| 151 | Max Kanter | % | 0.2% | 1.4% |
| 152 | Niklas Markl | % | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| 153 | Damien Howson | % | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| 154 | Frits Biesterbos | % | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| 155 | Matis Louvel | % | 0.2% | 1.4% |
| 156 | Xandro Meurisse | % | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 157 | Quinten Hermans | % | 0.2% | 1.2% |
| 158 | Ramses Debruyne | % | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| 159 | Kasper Asgreen | % | 0.2% | 1.2% |
| 160 | Robert Stannard | % | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 161 | Aaron Gate | % | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 162 | Max Walker | % | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| 163 | Quinn Simmons | % | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 164 | Edoardo Affini | % | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 165 | Joshua Tarling | % | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 166 | Milan Fretin | % | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 167 | Jake Stewart | % | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| 168 | Anthon Charmig | % | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 169 | Tom van Asbroeck | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 170 | Michel Hessmann | % | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| 171 | Sean Quinn | % | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 172 | Quentin Pacher | % | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 173 | Mattia Cattaneo | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 174 | Pascal Ackermann | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 175 | Matteo Trentin | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 176 | Cees Bol | % | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 177 | Marco Haller | % | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 178 | Thibault Guernalec | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 179 | Clement Russo | % | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 180 | Kamil Gradek | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 181 | Anthony Turgis | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 182 | Jenthe Biermans | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 183 | Fernando Gaviria | % | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 184 | Pascal Eenkhoorn | % | 0.1% | 0.3% |
Als je denkt dat een bepaalde rijder te hoog of te laag is ingeschat, bijvoorbeeld vanwege een blessure, dan kan je ook een aangepaste winstkans invoeren. Je doet dit door op de kans te klikken en er een andere waarde in te voeren. De andere renners worden dan automatisch meegeschaald. Als je op "All to 0" klikt, gaan alle renners naar 0. Dat is vooral handig om te gebruiken voor een ontsnapping. Top 3 en Top 10 kansen kunnen niet aangepast worden. Als er een renner ontbreekt, komt dat omdat die niet in het model zit.
Kansen voor de ontsnapping
De kans dat een ontsnapping de rit wint. Hiervoor wordt een ander model gebruikt. Let op: deze kans wordt berekend aan de hand van het profiel van de rit, niet aan de hand van tactiek.
Model vs. Wedkantoor vs. WielerOrakel
| # | My model | Unibet (geschaald) | Wielerorakel |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tadej Pogacar 41.6% | Tadej Pogacar 41.0% | Tadej Pogacar 25.6% |
| 2 | Paul Seixas 27.6% | Mathieu van der Poel 12.3% | Jonas Vingegaard 19.6% |
| 3 | Jonas Vingegaard 9.0% | Remco Evenepoel 4.0% | Isaac del Toro 16.6% ✓ |
| 4 | Remco Evenepoel 2.9% | Isaac del Toro 4.0% ✓ | Remco Evenepoel 9.8% |
| 5 | Isaac del Toro 2.8% ✓ | Mathias Vacek 4.0% | Mattias Skjelmose 5.5% |
Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 148%; the extra 48% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.
Stage 3 · Granollers – Les Angles
Monday 6 July 2026
Win probabilities
| # | Rider | Win | Top 3 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonas Vingegaard | % | 98.3% | 100.0% |
| 2 | Tadej Pogacar | % | 98.4% | 100.0% |
| 3 | Isaac del Toro | % | 37.5% | 99.2% |
| 4 | Paul Seixas | % | 19.2% | 94.7% |
| 5 | Remco Evenepoel | % | 10.4% | 80.4% |
| 6 | Juan Ayuso Pesquera | % | 5.2% | 56.5% |
| 7 | Mattias Skjelmose Jensen | % | 1.6% | 24.9% |
| 8 | Jordan Jegat | % | 1.6% | 21.2% |
| 9 | Lenny Martinez | % | 1.5% | 22.0% |
| 10 | Egan Bernal | % | 1.1% | 15.9% |
| 11 | Valentin Paret Peintre | % | 0.8% | 11.9% |
| 12 | Cian Uijtdebroeks | % | 0.8% | 11.9% |
| 13 | Alex Baudin | % | 1.1% | 15.7% |
| 14 | Jai Hindley | % | 0.9% | 13.8% |
| 15 | Mathieu van der Poel | % | 0.8% | 12.3% |
| 16 | Kevin Vauquelin | % | 0.6% | 9.4% |
| 17 | Yannis Voisard | % | 0.8% | 10.0% |
| 18 | Lennert van Eetvelt | % | 0.6% | 8.5% |
| 19 | Tobias Halland Johannessen | % | 0.5% | 7.5% |
| 20 | Ilan van Wilder | % | 0.5% | 7.5% |
| 21 | Michael Storer | % | 0.7% | 7.5% |
| 22 | Tom Pidcock | % | 0.4% | 6.7% |
| 23 | Matteo Jorgenson | % | 0.4% | 6.5% |
| 24 | Richard Carapaz | % | 0.5% | 6.1% |
| 25 | Mauro Schmid | % | 0.4% | 5.2% |
| 26 | Romain Gregoire | % | 0.3% | 3.9% |
| 27 | Aurelien Paret Peintre | % | 0.3% | 3.4% |
| 28 | Harold Tejada | % | 0.4% | 8.4% |
| 29 | Ben O Connor | % | 0.6% | 7.8% |
| 30 | Thymen Arensman | % | 0.5% | 8.4% |
| 31 | Sergio Higuita | % | 0.4% | 6.4% |
| 32 | Alex Aranburu | % | 0.3% | 6.4% |
| 33 | Raul Garcia Pierna | % | 0.3% | 5.3% |
| 34 | Anders Halland Johannessen | % | 0.4% | 5.1% |
| 35 | Sebastian Berwick | % | 0.3% | 4.8% |
| 36 | Carlos Verona | % | 0.2% | 4.7% |
| 37 | Chris Harper | % | 0.3% | 4.6% |
| 38 | George Bennett | % | 0.3% | 4.6% |
| 39 | Clement Braz Afonso | % | 0.3% | 4.1% |
| 40 | Florian Lipowitz | % | 0.3% | 4.2% |
| 41 | Ben Healy | % | 0.2% | 3.7% |
| 42 | Marc Hirschi | % | 0.2% | 4.0% |
| 43 | Sepp Kuss | % | 0.3% | 3.9% |
| 44 | Guillaume Martin | % | 0.1% | 3.4% |
| 45 | Luke Plapp | % | 0.3% | 3.5% |
| 46 | Michael Matthews | % | 0.2% | 3.2% |
| 47 | Mathias Vacek | % | 0.2% | 3.5% |
| 48 | Davide Piganzoli | % | 0.1% | 3.3% |
| 49 | Warren Barguil | % | 0.2% | 3.1% |
| 50 | Javier Romo | % | 0.2% | 3.2% |
| 51 | Maxim van Gils | % | 0.2% | 2.8% |
| 52 | Tiesj Benoot | % | 0.2% | 2.8% |
| 53 | Ion Izagirre | % | 0.2% | 2.7% |
| 54 | Alexandre Delettre | % | 0.2% | 2.9% |
| 55 | Adam Yates | % | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| 56 | Abel Balderstone Roumens | % | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| 57 | Derek Gee | % | 0.3% | 2.9% |
| 58 | Dylan van Baarle | % | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| 59 | Damiano Caruso | % | 0.2% | 2.4% |
| 60 | Matthew Riccitello | % | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| 61 | Pablo Castrillo Zapater | % | 0.1% | 2.4% |
| 62 | Nelson Oliveira | % | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| 63 | Filippo Ganna | % | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| 64 | Marco Frigo | % | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| 65 | Quinten Hermans | % | 0.1% | 1.8% |
| 66 | Benjamin Thomas | % | 0.2% | 1.9% |
| 67 | Antonio Tiberi | % | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| 68 | Stefano Oldani | % | 0.2% | 1.9% |
| 69 | Jonas Abrahamsen | % | 0.2% | 2.0% |
| 70 | Tobias Foss | % | 0.1% | 1.8% |
| 71 | Lewis Askey | % | 0.2% | 1.7% |
| 72 | Rick Pluimers | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 73 | Georg Steinhauser | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 74 | Matej Mohoric | % | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| 75 | Nicolas Breuillard | % | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 76 | Tim Marsman | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 77 | Edward Planckaert | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 78 | Lars Craps | % | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| 79 | Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun | % | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 80 | Soren Waerenskjold | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 81 | Toms Skujins | % | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 82 | Louis Vervaeke | % | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 83 | Jakub Otruba | % | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| 84 | Julius van den Berg | % | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 85 | Michael Valgren Andersen | % | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 86 | Liam Slock | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 87 | Einer Rubio | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 88 | Nicolas Vinokurov | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 89 | Torstein Traeen | % | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 90 | Baptiste Veistroffer | % | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 91 | Julian Alaphilippe | % | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 92 | Alex Kirsch | % | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 93 | Brandon Mcnulty | % | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 94 | Ewen Costiou | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 95 | Alex Molenaar | % | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 96 | Mike Teunissen | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 97 | Tim Wellens | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 98 | Ramses Debruyne | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 99 | Felix Grossschartner | % | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 100 | Jan Tratnik | % | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 101 | Simone Velasco | % | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 102 | Joris Delbove | % | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 103 | Georg Zimmermann | % | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 104 | Matheo Vercher | % | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 105 | Alfred Wright | % | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 106 | Jasper Stuyven | % | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 107 | Robbe Dhondt | % | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 108 | Jose Felix Parra | % | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 109 | Vlad van Mechelen | % | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 110 | Michal Kwiatkowski | % | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 111 | Mads Pedersen | % | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 112 | Frank van den Broek | % | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 113 | Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 114 | Kasper Asgreen | % | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 115 | Felix Engelhardt | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 116 | Nicolas Prodhomme | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 117 | Sean Quinn | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 118 | Emiel Verstrynge | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 119 | Jenno Berckmoes | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 120 | Brent van Moer | % | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 121 | Krists Neilands | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 122 | Quentin Pacher | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 123 | Jonas Rickaert | % | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 124 | Per Strand Hagenes | % | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 125 | Joshua Tarling | % | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 126 | Bruno Armirail | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 127 | Frits Biesterbos | % | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 128 | Damien Howson | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 129 | Lorenzo Germani | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 130 | Magnus Cort Nielsen | % | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 131 | Aaron Gate | % | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 132 | Matis Louvel | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 133 | Joel Nicolau | % | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 134 | Hugo Page | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 135 | Mattia Cattaneo | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 136 | Arnaud de Lie | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 137 | Xandro Meurisse | % | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 138 | Anthon Charmig | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 139 | Silvan Dillier | % | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 140 | Robert Stannard | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 141 | Michel Hessmann | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 142 | Tom van Asbroeck | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 143 | Anders Skaarseth | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 144 | Huub Artz | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 145 | Arvid de Kleijn | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 146 | Luke Durbridge | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 147 | Piet Allegaert | % | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 148 | Pavel Bittner | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 149 | Daan Hoole | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 150 | Nils Politt | % | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 151 | Mathis le Berre | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 152 | John Degenkolb | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 153 | Davide Ballerini | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 154 | Max Kanter | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 155 | Jake Stewart | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 156 | Nico Denz | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 157 | Max Walker | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 158 | Bert van Lerberghe | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 159 | Niklas Markl | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 160 | Clement Russo | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 161 | Jenthe Biermans | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 162 | Dorian Godon | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 163 | Biniam Girmay | % | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 164 | Florian Vermeersch | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 165 | Kelland Brien | % | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 166 | Quinn Simmons | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 167 | Victor Campenaerts | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 168 | Kamil Gradek | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 169 | Milan Fretin | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 170 | Jasper Philipsen | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 171 | Anthony Turgis | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 172 | Thibault Guernalec | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 173 | Edoardo Affini | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 174 | Tim van Dijke | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 175 | Fernando Gaviria | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 176 | Pascal Ackermann | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 177 | Marco Haller | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 178 | Phil Bauhaus | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 179 | Cees Bol | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 180 | Tim Merlier | % | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 181 | Pascal Eenkhoorn | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 182 | Olav Kooij | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 183 | Matteo Trentin | % | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Als je denkt dat een bepaalde rijder te hoog of te laag is ingeschat, bijvoorbeeld vanwege een blessure, dan kan je ook een aangepaste winstkans invoeren. Je doet dit door op de kans te klikken en er een andere waarde in te voeren. De andere renners worden dan automatisch meegeschaald. Als je op "All to 0" klikt, gaan alle renners naar 0. Dat is vooral handig om te gebruiken voor een ontsnapping. Top 3 en Top 10 kansen kunnen niet aangepast worden. Als er een renner ontbreekt, komt dat omdat die niet in het model zit.
Kansen voor de ontsnapping
De kans dat een ontsnapping de rit wint. Hiervoor wordt een ander model gebruikt. Let op: deze kans wordt berekend aan de hand van het profiel van de rit, niet aan de hand van tactiek.
Model vs. Wedkantoor vs. WielerOrakel
| # | My model | Unibet (geschaald) | Wielerorakel |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonas Vingegaard 48.9% | Tadej Pogacar 26.3% | Tadej Pogacar 23.7% |
| 2 | Tadej Pogacar 47.5% | Mathieu van der Poel 5.0% | Jonas Vingegaard 14.9% |
| 3 | Isaac del Toro 1.8% | Isaac del Toro 4.4% | Remco Evenepoel 9.1% |
| 4 | Paul Seixas 0.9% | Mathias Vacek 4.4% | Paul Seixas 8.7% |
| 5 | Remco Evenepoel 0.4% | Romain Gregoire 3.5% | Kévin Vauquelin 7.0% |
Unibet’s raw odds imply probabilities that add up to 152%; the extra 52% is the bookmaker’s margin. “Fair” percentages above have that margin removed; the quoted odds always pay out less than the fair probability suggests.
Scoreboard
Stage winners predicted correctly
0
0
0
My modelUnibet (geschaald)Wielerorakel
Days with the sharpest prediction (lowest Brier)
0
0
1
My modelUnibet (geschaald)Wielerorakel
Overall standing
| Predictor | Stages | Avg Brier ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| Wielerorakel | 1 | 0.8190 |
| Unibet (geschaald) | 1 | 1.1117 |
| My model | 1 | 1.2037 |
Scored on stages all three predicted, after the stage has been raced. Each predictor = its top-15 win probabilities as published; Unibet’s odds are first stripped of the bookmaker’s margin. Brier = squared error on the winner outcome; lower is better.
Last updated on: 2026-07-05 21:00.
Stage 1 is a team time trial, which an individual-rider model cannot score.